NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend Picks, Projections & Playbook For DraftKings & FanDuel

On paper, this match-up is terrible for Allen and yet, he is likely to be one of the highest-owned QBs on the slate. Why? Because Allen can beat you in a variety of ways. If the coverage in the secondary is strong, he'll beat you with his legs. If they focus on containing him, he'll sit in the pocket and hit you with the short-passing and methodically move the chains. He can throw away from Patrick Surtain all game long and never have a care or concern that one side of the field is somewhat off-limits. There's a reason the Bills have so many different people scoring touchdowns and Allen is all about spreading the ball around. Expect the MVP hype to continue and expect high ownership. 

Always tough facing a team for the third time in a season, but after throwing for 207 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the first game, he turned around and threw for another 207 yards but with three touchdowns to one pick this time around. He did rush for more yardage in the first one, but from what we've watched from Jackson over the last few weeks and within this match-up against Pittsburgh, he and the team are pushing through and playing on another level than where the Steelers are playing. I'm expecting another solid performance through the air, maybe 30-40 rushing yards and, hopefully, one rushing touchdown. He does that and he pays off this salary.

Probably the most bang for your buck as we know we have the rushing upside and this connection he's developed with both Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz has me thinking he's a lock for most people's lineups. The game against the Bucs has a 50.5 over/under which is the highest on the slate and we know this offense is going to have to put forth a huge effort given the defensive shortcomings and potency of the Tampa offense. Expect this game to be the most-stacked of the slate and we're 100% here for it. 

Again, the point total on this game is the highest of the slate, we know the Washington secondary has had issues in the past and Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdown passes over his last five games. We do expect the Bucs to lead with the run as the Commanders are soft up the middle, but should this game turn into any sort of a shootout, expect him to start chucking the ball like he's Gus Swayze. The one situation we are monitoring closely is the potential return of Marshon Lattimore. Anyone who knows the history of Lattimore vs. Mike Evans can tell you it will make things a bit more difficult for Tampa if he's on the field and living rent-free in Evans' head.

Let the haters hate all they want. One bad game from Darnold against the Lions isn't going to deter me from locking him in against a highly-suspect Rams pass defense. In the seven games prior to that loss, Darnold had 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions and threw for more than 300 yards three times. The Rams have allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game, the fifth most touchdown passes on the season and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. This game has been moved to a neutral location due to the wildfires in southern California, so I expect to see the Darnold we all fell in love with this season. 

It can be tough to put your faith in a rookie QB at this point, but we expect Nix to be throwing plenty this week and given the Bills pass-rush, I expect him to do some running as well. He's looking to springboard off the momentum of the last three weeks where he racked up nine touchdowns to just one interceptions while averaging 268 passing yards per game. The Bills can be a tough defense but they've allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game and the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season.

As great of a season as this has been, this will be a challenging effort for Barkley as the Packers run defense ranked seventh in DVOA and allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game this season. But Barkley is Barkley and the fact that Jalen Hurts is back under center means the defense cannot stack the box against the run. Las Vegas props have him over 100 yards on the ground still, so if you've got the money to spend, Barkley is always on the table.

Speaking of always on the table, Henry against the Steelers is also in-play if you're building some DFS lineups this week. He rushed for 65 yards and a touchdown the first time he faced Pittsburgh and then rushed for 162 against them just five weeks later. As formidable of a defense as the Steelers have, Henry is an absolute beast and should be considered always. The price tag is high and he needs a big game to pay it off, but he is more than capable of doing that no matter who the opponent might be.

Eight-straight games with at least one rushing touchdown? Three rushing touchdowns on two of those eight games? Jacobs may not be hitting the century mark on rushing yards each week, but he is leaned on heavily in this offense and head coach Matt LaFleur is going to do just that once again. Simply put, it takes the pressure off Jordan Love and helps open up the downfield passing. It will certainly be a challenge as the Eagles allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game this season, but you know anything inside the five-yard-line, LaFleur is handing the ball off to his bell-cow.

Not gonna lie – while everyone is salivating over Baker Mayfield, I'm more bullish on Irving this week. The Commanders pass defense strengthened over the latter half of the season, but they still allowed the third-most rushing yards per game and the seventh-most rushing touchdown on the year. He has out-snapped and out-touched Rachaad White in each of the last three weeks and has rushed for at least 85 yards in five of the last seven games with three 100-yard efforts and four touchdowns. Even better is his expanded role in the passing game, averaging four targets and three catches per game over the last seven. I'm expecting a big effort from the rookie's first NFL playoff game.

The Texans need to do something to right the ship as they defaulted their way into the playoffs, thanks to a horrendously weak division. Mixon hasn't helped the cause with an average of just 32 rushing yards per game over the final four weeks of the season, so I expect the Texans to get back to the basics and start feeding him more volume. The Chargers run defense has been solid all year, allowing just under 118 rushing yards per game, but they did soften a little but down the stretch when facing a more formidable opponent. If Mixon sees the volume he needs, he's going to pay off this salary for us.

The Rams run defense finished the season ranked 21st in DVOA and they allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game. While Kevin O'Connell will eventually turn to a more pass-heavy scheme, he knows Sean McVay very well and will likely try to start the game establishing the run with Jones. He was dealing with a quad injury down the stretch but didn't miss any time. He remains active in the passing game and routinely sees touches inside the red zone. O'Connell doesn't want to get into some crazy shooting match right from the start so expect a lean on the ground to open things up. 

We all know Jim Harbaugh wants to run the football and will do just that with Dobbins this week. Slightly hampered by an ankle issue down the stretch, Dobbins has remained the primary ball-carrier in this offense and will be leaned on again early in this match-up as the Chargers look to grab an early lead and sit on it. The Texans allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, but Dobbins should see his estimated 15 carries per game and is always active inside the red and green zones.

Sorry if you're looking for some sort of in-depth analysis here, but this is Jefferson we're talking about. He's the primary threat against a suspect secondary and has the fourth-best match-up according to our friends over at Pro Football Focus. I expect him to be fairly chalky this week on the full six-game slate and rightfully so as I love using a weapon this fierce for the last game of the slate.

According to Pro Football Focus, Nacua has the most favorable match-up on the slate as the Vikings have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game and the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. It's very obvious where Matthew Stafford's attention sits so if you're looking for a heavy target share in a soft match-up, this could be your top play.

Keep an eye on this situation as Brown did not practice on Thursday due to a knee issue and we need him to put in a session on Friday if we're going to have any confidence in him. If he doesn't play, I will pivot to DeVonta Smith. With no Jaire Alexander and with the strength of the Packers run defense, I expect Jalen Hurts to do more throwing downfield than usual, so whoever ends up being the primary target, should have a strong day.  

He's the X-receiver in a Sean Payton/Joe Lombardi offense, so he gets targets funneled his way. In fact, he's averaged nearly nine targets per game over the last 10, he's had at least five catches in each of his last three and has three touchdowns in his last four. Now he'll face a Bills team that ranks 28th in DVOA against the WR1 and is allowing an average of 75.7 receiving yards per game to them. If we're expecting Nix to throw, Sutton will have a busy game.

There is definite risk here because A. Russell Wilson has looked awful in recent weeks and B. Pickens is a crybaby who's looked awful in the last two games. But he is the alpha receiver on this team and the first time he faced the Ravens, he had eight catches on 12 targets for 89 yards. The Ravens pass defense has been rough all year and I expect the Steelers to eventually be playing from behind. People might be scared off from Pickens' recent showings, so perhaps we get him as discounted ownership.

McLaurin has been absolutely fantastic this season and has looked strong down the stretch, posting at least 60 receiving yards per game in five of his final six with seven touchdowns in that span. We all know the Bucs secondary has struggled all year, but just as a reminder, they've allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season, they've allowed the third-most passing touchdowns on the year and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. He will be leaned on heavily by Jayden Daniels in a game with the highest expected point total on the slate.

How great has the rookie been as Justin Herbert's security blanket? Since Week 11, McConkey has averaged just over eight targets, six catches and 94 receiving yards per game and has three touchdowns over his last four. Our friends over at PFF also rank his match-up as the eighth-most favorable of all the receivers here on Wild Card Weekend, so if you're looking for a strong mid-tier option, this is where you want to live.

LATE ADD: You're probably going to see a lot of Jefferson in lineups, especially with the way the Rams secondary plays at times. Addison makes for a great way to get exposure to the game and not have to pay a premium price. He's second on the team in targets and this game definitely has some late-game shootout vibes to it.

You might be wondering why you don't see Mike Evans listed here. If so, it's because Marshon Lattimore has been a full-participant in practices this week and will rekindle the abusive relationship he and Evans share. You can take a look for yourself here, but just understand that, with so many other options at the receiver position, I feel no need to take a chance that the two won't have issues. That puts me right in line with McMillan who has been an absolute beast down the stretch. The rookie has averaged five catches on six targets for 63.2 receiving yards per game over the last five and has seven touchdowns in that span. With Evans battling with Lattimore all game, Mayfield is going to have to lean on McMillan more than ever.

Personally, I don't mind using Josh Allen on his own, bet if you're looking to pair him up with a receiver, then Shakir is probably your best bet. I also like Keon Coleman, but Shakir plays one of he highest snap percentages of all the Bills pass-catchers and leads the receivers in targets by a country mile. The Broncos pass defense is one of the best in the game, but with the Bills not having a clear-cut alpha for Patrick Surtain to shadow, you can expect him to stay on his side of the field while Shakir spends the majority of his snaps in the slot. I expect a solid effort, especially for this low of a price. 

No Zay Flowers puts Bateman front-and-center in the Ravens passing attack. Last week we watched him catch five passes on eight targets for 76 yards and a touchdown and we've watched hm shine each time Flowers has been hampered by injury. Bateman has four touchdowns over his last four games and is routinely targeted inside the red zone. If you're stacking the Ravens passing attack, he makes for a strong play even against the Steelers. 

He's the guy who moves the chains for Jordan Love and with no Christian Watson, I expect even more targets to go Doubs' way this weekend. The Eagles pass defense has been solid all year, but they do rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and have allowed nearly 60 receiving yards per game to them. There's nothing flashy about Doubs, but to get the most-targeted receiver on the team at this price, you should be in great shape with the rest of your lineup.

He's still playing fewer than 50% of the snaps, yet Mims has been absolutely on-fire over these past few weeks. Primarily a deep threat, Mims has averaged just over five targets per game and has produced an average of four catches for 68.2 yards over his last five. More importantly, he's also racked up five touchdowns in that span, including back-to-back multi-touchdown games to close out the season. He's a boom-or-bust guy, but he's been a lot more boom lately.

With the absence of Zay Flowers, I am expecting Todd Monken to run more 2-TE sets and getting Andrews to run more routes. He's scored a touchdown in six-straight games and continues to see a strong target share. Given the match-up, had Flowers been around I may have looked at Isaiah Likely more (see below), but given the shorthanded situation of pass-catchers, Andrews remains just as strong a play as ever.

This might actually be the most favorable match-up for tight ends this week as the Bucs rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. We've been targeting against Tampa Bay with tight ends all year, so why stop now? Ertz has 11 catches for 116 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets over the last two games and has six touchdowns in his last seven. Paying up at the position can be tough, given the rest of what's available this weekend, but the numbers don't lie.

It can be tough to isolate Hockenson as a decent one-off as he is, at best, third on his team in target-share, but I do love the extra looks he's gotten in recent games and I love the fact that the Rams are so bad against the tight end. How bad? How about allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position and an average of 61.3 receiving yards per game to them? Hockenson is averaging seven targets per game over his last seven and if he can see that kind of volume this week, he should be a fantastic investment.

Forget about Goedert on FanDuel. The price is just stupid. But on DraftKings, especially if A.J. Brown is out or limited, Goedert could be a huge boost to your lineup. In his first game back from injury last week, he managed four catches for 55 yards and he now has an even more favorable match-up against the Packers who ranked 22nd in DVOA against the tight end and allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Freiermuth has not had strong games against the Ravens this season, catching just five passes for 30 yards, but he just might be a decent contrarian pick this week because of just that. The Steelers need to get their passing attack fixed and he should remain a strong part of that. With 19 targets over the last two games – 15 caches for 145 yards and one touchdown – he could be leaned on more to help move the chains. And if he can get red zone looks as well, it's even better. 

Not exactly a play for the faint of heart, but we've unearthed a pattern for the Ravens over the course of this season. When the Ravens are facing a formidable run defense, they tend to use Likely more than Andrews in an effort to get better blocking on the line for Derrick Henry. That resulted in a higher snap count for Likely in those games, more routes run and more catches. With the Steelers run defense and pass-rush what it is, not to mention the loss of Zay Flowers, we could see Likely a little more heavily used. He definitely makes for a nice contrarian play this week.

Are we paying up for a defense this week? If so, the Ravens are very much in-play going up against a Steelers offense that has stumbled to the finish line this season. In fact, the Steelers have averaged just 14.7 points over their last three games and the Ravens held them to 17 in Week 16 which sacking Russell Wilson three times and turning the ball over twice. 

I honestly don't think the Bills defense gets enough credit sometimes, especially after ranking third in the league in takeaways this season. The return of Matt Milano has fortified their linebackers and they have 39 sacks on the season. They'll need to contain Nix' rushing ability in this one, but with such a limited ground game for Denver, the Bills are going to be able to focus on pass coverage a little more.

Our D/ST Coach, Dan Malin, has the Eagles as his play of the week and I don't feel the need to argue against that at all. He presents a fantastic argument for them, so do yourselves a favor and click the link to check out exactly what he says. In the words of Jim Bowden, I verbally retweet everything he says.

This is just a nice place to live with regard to salary and given the struggles the Texans have had throughout the season, investing in Jim Harbaugh's defense is a great play. We've got the lowest game total on the board, a struggling CJ Stroud and only one legitimate wide receiver to focus on in Nico Collins. I've got the Chargers winning this game and their defense will be a big part of it.