NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 14 Monday Night Football
Week 14 isn’t over yet, people! We have not one, but two Monday Night Football games tonight as the Tennessee Titans travel to Miami to face the Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! We went three of three yesterday, so let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 14 Monday Night Football.
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Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
No matter what the game script is, Tyreek Hill is always involved and involved in a big way. Over the past three weeks, he’s been able to hit this mark, and he gets another soft matchup against the Tennessee Titans defense. Tennessee has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, while Hill is averaging 123 receiving yards per game and has already scored 12 touchdowns on the season. He should be able to put up another huge game against a soft Titans secondary to help his team get to the number one spot in the AFC playoff picture.
Pick: Tyreek Hill more than 24 fantasy points (1.73x)
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love has been on FIRE lately, having at least 18.66 fantasy points over the last four games. Even without Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave, Love has found a way to spread the ball around to Romeo Doubs, rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, and even rookie tight end Tucker Kraft. The Giants defense hasn’t been great at all this season, and although they’ve only given up an average of 14.9 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, it seems that it’s been more of a game script situation, as teams have just switched over to running the ball. With Aaron Jones questionable for tonight, this game may turn out to be more pass-heavy than we’ve seen other teams go with, and Love is set up for another big day.
Pick: Jordan Love more than 16.5 fantasy points (1.77x)
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
We can’t really count on anyone on this Giants offense, even with Tommy DeVito playing better than expected, but Barkley is in a good spot for a big day today. The Packers defense is allowing an average of over 136 rushing yards per game, and with Barkley handling the majority of carries, he should see the bulk of these yards. He’s hit this match in two out of the last four, with the two games he didn’t coming against the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots tougher defense. Green Bay may also be missing one of their inside linebackers, Quay Walker, so this matchup just got a little easier for Barkley.
Pick: Saquon Barkley more than 70.5 rushing yards (1.72x)
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Player News
Alex Anzalone was absent from the Lions’ offseason workouts this week.
While Anzalone hasn’t explicitly said he wants a new contract, it doesn’t take a genius to connect the dots here. The Lions co-captain who turns 31 in September is a notable absence from optional offseason workouts this week after making multiple references to his value to the Lions on social media. Those references include a graph of the Lions’ defensive decline in DVOA in the seven games Anzalone missed last year as well as a note about the linebacker market increasing after Nick Bolton signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Chiefs. Detroit hasn’t been bashful about handing out extensions in recent years and Anzalone, who’s entering the last year of a three-year, $18 million contract, believes he is next in line.
Ravens signed DT John Jenkins to a one-year contract.
The 35-year-old 13th-year pro slides in as a 1-for-1 Michael Pierce replacement after the former Raven retired in March. Although strictly a two-down player, Jenkins actually played a new career high 606 snaps for the Raiders last season. He probably won’t reach that total in Baltimore, but he should see plenty of work as a run-stopper.
49ers signed K Greg Joseph.
The 30-year-old journeyman spent time with each of the Giants, Commanders and Jets last season. He’ll serve as a veteran, in-house option should third-year pro Jake Moody look shaky this summer after an underwhelming 2024.
49ers signed Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.
Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, Purdy gets $181 million in total guarantees with $165.1 million in the first three new years. He is now under contract through 2030. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant flashed in a handful of starts as a rookie and immediately proved to be Kyle Shanahan’s next efficiency phenom in 2023 with 4,280 yards and 31 scores. Purdy’s numbers fell in 2024, but he did enough to keep the offense on the tracks despite a rash of injuries, even if the 49ers lumbered to a 6-11 record. Purdy managed 3,864 yards and 20 scores in 15 games and showed an improved ability to work out of structure and under pressure. Though he may not have a truly elite ceiling, Purdy is beginning to beat the system quarterback allegations after just two seasons as the full-time starter. With the league’s easiest schedule on tap for 2025, expect a rebound from Purdy and the entire team this year.
Jets released K Greg Zuerlein.
Defensive end Michael Fletcher was signed in a corresponding move. Zuerlein has kicked for the Jets since 2022. He suffered a knee injury last year and briefly returned before being placed back on injured reserve. Zuerlein appeared in eight games and went a dreadful 9-of-15 on his field goal tries. The 60 percent hit rate was by far the worst of his career. Now 37 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Legatron hang up the cleats for good after being released. If he wants to keep kicking, another team will be more than willing to at least give him a camp battle to win.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his guess is that the NFL will ban the tush push during next week’s owners’ meeting.
Schefter didn’t cite any sources directly but reiterated the point later in the latest episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the owners voted to outlaw the play. Losing the free touchdown play would undoubtedly hurt Philly’s offense and Jalen Hurts’ fantasy outlook, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Hurts, an elite offensive line, and Saquon Barkley not finding other ways to get in the end zone from a yard out. If the tush push is banned, it would likely just shuffle some of Hurts’ touchdowns to Barkley. Other teams including the Bills have experimented with similar plays, but no one has found as much success as the Eagles. The owners will also be voting on a change to the playoff seeding rules. The proposed change would seed teams based purely on their record instead of each division winner earning a top-four seed. While that may be a more logical way to do things, it’s certainly less fun.