NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 13 Monday Night Football Featuring the Jaguars & Bengals
We’ve almost made it through the second bye-pocalypse, but we’ve got one more game before we can call it a wrap. The Bengals travel to Duval County to take on the Jaguars tonight, and there should be plenty of action to go around. Will it be Calvin Ridley or Christian Kirk? Can Ja'Marr Chase get it done with Jake Browning at quarterback? Will either team get the run going? Well, let’s look at it.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 13 Monday Night Football.
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Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Over the course of the season, we’ve learned that Christian Kirk is the go-to guy in man coverage, while Ridley is the go to guy in zone. The Bengals play the third-highest rate of man in the league, so Trevor Lawrence should be looking Kirk’s way plenty. He’s hit this stat in eight of the 11 games he’s played so far this season, and he’s seen at least six targets in all but two games this year. This should be one of the better games for him.
Pick: Christian Kirk more than 3.5 receptions (1.53x)
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite getting off to a slow start to the season, Trevor Lawrence has been on fire lately, hitting this mark in three of the last four games. The Bengals defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone, allowing the most pass yards per attempt and the seventh-most pass yards per game, and last week they allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers to finally go over 400 offensive yards. The Jaguars are a much better offense, and Lawrence is a much better quarterback, so I expect him to hit this stat easily.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence more than 242.5 pass yards (1.77x)
Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals
We’re back to interception stats, huh? You’re right, I just can’t get away, especially not here. Jacksonville has been very good at taking the ball away this year, averaging 1.0 interception per game, and Browning was very lucky some of the bobbled balls didn’t turn into interceptions last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As long as he keeps making those errant throws, one of them is bound to find its way into the Jaguars secondary.
Pick: Jake Browning more than .5 interceptions (1.47x)
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Player News
Ravens signed DT John Jenkins to a one-year contract.
The 35-year-old 13th-year pro slides in as a 1-for-1 Michael Pierce replacement after the former Raven retired in March. Although strictly a two-down player, Jenkins actually played a new career high 606 snaps for the Raiders last season. He probably won’t reach that total in Baltimore, but he should see plenty of work as a run-stopper.
49ers signed K Greg Joseph.
The 30-year-old journeyman spent time with each of the Giants, Commanders and Jets last season. He’ll serve as a veteran, in-house option should third-year pro Jake Moody look shaky this summer after an underwhelming 2024.
49ers signed Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.
Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, Purdy gets $181 million in total guarantees with $165.1 million in the first three new years. He is now under contract through 2030. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant flashed in a handful of starts as a rookie and immediately proved to be Kyle Shanahan’s next efficiency phenom in 2023 with 4,280 yards and 31 scores. Purdy’s numbers fell in 2024, but he did enough to keep the offense on the tracks despite a rash of injuries, even if the 49ers lumbered to a 6-11 record. Purdy managed 3,864 yards and 20 scores in 15 games and showed an improved ability to work out of structure and under pressure. Though he may not have a truly elite ceiling, Purdy is beginning to beat the system quarterback allegations after just two seasons as the full-time starter. With the league’s easiest schedule on tap for 2025, expect a rebound from Purdy and the entire team this year.
Jets released K Greg Zuerlein.
Defensive end Michael Fletcher was signed in a corresponding move. Zuerlein has kicked for the Jets since 2022. He suffered a knee injury last year and briefly returned before being placed back on injured reserve. Zuerlein appeared in eight games and went a dreadful 9-of-15 on his field goal tries. The 60 percent hit rate was by far the worst of his career. Now 37 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Legatron hang up the cleats for good after being released. If he wants to keep kicking, another team will be more than willing to at least give him a camp battle to win.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his guess is that the NFL will ban the tush push during next week’s owners’ meeting.
Schefter didn’t cite any sources directly but reiterated the point later in the latest episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the owners voted to outlaw the play. Losing the free touchdown play would undoubtedly hurt Philly’s offense and Jalen Hurts’ fantasy outlook, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Hurts, an elite offensive line, and Saquon Barkley not finding other ways to get in the end zone from a yard out. If the tush push is banned, it would likely just shuffle some of Hurts’ touchdowns to Barkley. Other teams including the Bills have experimented with similar plays, but no one has found as much success as the Eagles. The owners will also be voting on a change to the playoff seeding rules. The proposed change would seed teams based purely on their record instead of each division winner earning a top-four seed. While that may be a more logical way to do things, it’s certainly less fun.
Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh reports the team has called the Saints about a possible trade for Chris Olave.
According to Farabaugh, one source described the Steelers’ inquiry as “a due diligence call” while adding that a trade “doesn’t seem likely to happen” at this time. The Steelers trade George Pickens to the Cowboys just over a week ago, and are now looking at DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, and Calvin Austin as their top options in three receiver sets. Of those three, Metcalf is the only receiver with notable NFL success, while Wilson effectively redshirted his rookie season due to injuries. Olave caught 32 passes for 400 yards and one touchdown for the Saints last season, but missed nine games due to multiple concussions he suffered. The four-year receiver posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons during his first two years in the league, and would provide an immediate upgrade to an underwhelming Steelers receiving corps. Farabaugh reports that in addition to a trade being unlikely, that the Saints do “not seem interested in trading Olave” at this time. The Saints picked up Olave’s fifth-year option last month, and will likely look to extend him in the not too distant future.