NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 10 Thursday Night Football Featuring the Bears & Panthers
With NFL Week 10 kicking off tonight on Thursday Night Football, we kick off a new campaign here at Fantasy Alarm with our friends over at Sleeper. Welcome to Sleeper Picks where you pick through a variety of player stat lines and pick whether or not you think the player will have more or less than the given stat line. It’s simple. We’ve done this before! And now we get to check in with a variety of multipliers and build our picks list to where we can make some decent money, even on some of the smallest wagers. And what better way to start for the 2023 NFL season than a match-up between the Carolina Panthers and the Chicago Bears? These two teams pulled off a blockbuster trade that allowed the Panthers to draft their franchise quarterback Bryce Young and the Bears to land a highly-coveted No. 1 receiver in DJ Moore. There’s a rivalry brewing here and we’re going to have some fun with it using our Sleeper picks.
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NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Thursday Night Football
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
While usual Bears starting quarterback Justin Fields remains out with a thumb injury, rookie Tyson Bagent has had strong enough performances that we’re willing to back Moore in a revenge-game against his former team. We’re not saying there’s ill-will, but given how competitive professional athletes are, we know Moore is looking to show up his former employers. While we know you always run against the Panthers, we’ll look to the Bears ground game as a set-up to the pass and Bagent is going to want to keep Moore as involved as possible. While he’s only had seven receptions over his last two games, Moore still has five of nine games where he’s caught at least five passes. With the Panthers not having CJ Henderson and both safeties banged-up, we expect a solid attack through the air for Bagent and the Bears and a strong night for Moore:
Pick: DJ Moore more than 4.5 receptions (1.82x)
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
The best part about the Bears defense is it’s pass-rush and at the trade deadline, they added Montez Sweat who makes it even stronger. There are two ways to negate that. The first is to run it right up the middle. The Panthers could do that, but given the strength of the Bears run defense, we are skeptical. The other way is to dump off screen passes to the running back once the pass-rush over-pursues the quarterback. This is the way for Carolina. The Bears rank 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays and are allowing an average of 60.4 receiving yards per game to them. Even if Hubbard shares some of the passing work with Miles Sanders, his number here is low enough to give us confidence that he’ll surpass the total given.
Pick: Chuba Hubbard more than 14.5 receiving yards (1.81x)
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
When Bryce Young needs a catch, where does he turn? That’s right – Thielen is his guy. Always has been and always will be. He’s averaging nearly 10 targets per game, has three 100-yard efforts and has racked up four touchdown catches this season. He’s a major threat inside the red zone, as evidenced by a team-high 11 red-zone targets and we expect to see more in tonight’s game. The Bears have allowed a league-high 20 touchdowns through the air this season and if the Panthers are going to find a way to add to that total, it’s going to happen through Thielen.
Pick: Adam Thielen Anytime TD (2.54x)
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Player News
InsideTheBirds.com’s Andrew DiCecco reports there “could be more variance” for the Eagles offense under new coordinator Kevin Patullo.
DiCecco said several Eagles players this spring have suggested that the team’s offense under Patullo could be more balanced after being among the NFL’s run-heaviest units in 2024. The Philly offense would still revolve around Saquon Barkley following his 2,005 rushing yards in 2024, though the team could try to “preserve” the centerpiece of their offense with a slightly lighter workload in 2025. Barkley, 28, last season recorded 378 touches, the most of his NFL career. More passing for the Eagles would primarily benefit DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, who dominate targets in the Philadelphia offense. The Eagles in 2024 had the fewest pass attempts (448) in the NFL.
Steelers signed LS Tucker Addington, formerly of the Texans.
The veteran long snapper most recently played for the Texans but has also seen stints with the Patriots, Dolphins, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Commanders during his three-year NFL career. He slides in behind Christian Kuntz on the team’s depth chart and should provide valuable experience at one of the game’s most underrated positions.
Russell Wilson said he chose to play with the Giants because of WR Malik Nabers.
“I came here because of him,” said Wilson about Nabers during a panel at Fanatics Fest over the weekend. “I really wanted to play with someone who is special like him.” As a rookie in 2024, Nabers was targeted 170 times, which was second-most among NFL wide receievers. He also led the Giants with 109 receptions for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns. Wilson, who will turn 37 years old during the 2025 season, had only one player with 100/1000/7 in a single season (Tyler Lockett in 2020). Wilson signed with the Giants in March following a one-year stint with the Steelers.
The Athletic’s Zak Keefer says we should “look for more emphasis on explosion” from the Chiefs’ passing game this season.
As Keefer notes in the article, Andy Reid “made a point of it all spring” for the Chiefs to “get back to pushing the ball deep down the field.” Per PFF, since 2021, Patrick Mahomes has ranked 21st or lower in ADOT (min. 300 dropbacks), but finished sixth in ADOT in 2018 when he broke out for 5,097-50-12 on his way to winning his first MVP. A lot has changed since Mahomes last aired it out at a high rate. Most notably is the departure of Tyreek Hill in 2022 and Travis Kelce no longer being the spry, explosive playmaker we saw several seasons ago. The Chiefs hope the return of Hollywood Brown and a second year of work for Xavier Worthy will lead to more explosive plays next season, which could spell big things for fantasy managers who decide to take shots on pieces of an offense that ranked 15th in scoring last season.
The Athletic’s James Boyd believes Daniel Jones “has already taken a significant lead” in the Colts’ QB competition.
Jones and Anthony Richardson are supposed to compete for the QB1 job in camp. While Richardson recently said he expects to be ready to go by camp, an offseason shoulder surgery has slowed his progress for the upcoming season, and opened the door for Jones to work almost exclusively with the first team offense. Jones has struggled to look like the player who was taken No. 6 overall by the Giants in 2019, but Richardson’s underwhelming performance in 2024 (1,813-8-12) that was headlined by a 47.7 completion percentage was far worse than any single season of Jones’ six-year career. The Colts will string this competition along for as long as they can — assuming Richardson is healthy enough to play in camp — but Richardson is well behind Jones at this point.
Jets owner Woody Johnson has agreed to purchase a 43 percent stake in Premier League club Crystal Palace.
Johnson will buy his stake from American businessman Jon Textor. According to reports, the deal is worth $254 million pending approval from the Premier League and Women’s Super League. The move will make Johnson partners with two other NFL owners as Commanders principal owner Josh Harris and minority owner David Blitzer own the majority stake in the team along with Steve Parish. The 78-year-old Johnson, who served as United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom from 2017 to 2021, previously attempted to buy fellow Premier League club Chelsea in 2022, but was unsuccessful.