NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Sunday's Divisional Round
We’re one day down in the NFL Divisional Playoff round, but we have some great games going on today. The Baltimore Ravens steamrolled the Houston Texans yesterday, and the San Francisco 49ers barely escaped with their playoff lives, giving us all the excitement we’d want out of the playoffs. The fun’s not over yet, though, as we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off against the Detroit Lions, then we get the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Buffalo for the first road playoff game of Patrick Mahomes’ career.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Let’s go into some of Monday’s options and keep the good times rolling.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
With the divisional round, we’re looking to cash quickly, so we’re not looking a gift horse in the mouth when we get a discounted pick. Allen’s yardage total has gone down from the low 200s to the high 180s, and that is something I’m definitely taking advantage of. Even with Gabe Davis out and L’Jarius Sneed on Stefon Diggs, Allen has too many weapons at his disposal to not hit this mark. It should be a pretty back-and-forth game, so Allen won’t have the luxury of taking his foot off the gas. Take advantage of this special pick before it’s gone.
Pick: Josh Allen more than 187.5 passing yards (1.77x)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
This game should be a shootout, and what better way to capitalize on that than going after Detroit’s top receiver. St. Brown has hit this mark in four of his last five games, and in the game that he didn’t hit, he was only off by two yards. Tampa Bay’s secondary was able to shut down Philadelphia last week, but they have some major issues in guarding the slot wide receivers with Christian Izien, an undrafted rookie, manning the coverage. St. Brown should be able to make him look silly, and in what should be a tight game, he’ll have plenty of looks thrown his way.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown more than 91.5 receiving yards (1.71x)
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff hasn’t let us down at home yet, and I don’t think he’s starting now. We’re going to continue to roll with him in the comfort of his dome against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed an average of 1.4 passing touchdowns per game. We know they’re difficult to run on, so even with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Goff is going to have to make plays through the air to score points. I think this game is very similar to what we saw last week, so let’s run it back one more time.
Pick: Jared Goff more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.45x)
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Player News
Chargers LB Daiyan Henley said he has fully recovered from offseason shoulder surgery.
Henley played through a torn labrum for four months while breaking out in his second NFL season last year. The 25-year-old totaled 92 tackles, 13 quarterback pressures, six pass breakups and one interception. He now has ample time to ramp up ahead of the 2025 NFL season.
Broncos signed No. 20 overall pick CB Jahdae Barron to a four-year contract.
Barron is one of the last first-round picks to sign, getting a four-year, $18.07 million deal with a fifth-year option. He joins a secondary with star CB Patrick Surtain leading the group. His last season out of Texas, Barron won the Jim Thorpe award for best defensive back and now is slated for the Broncos’ slot role. This leaves the Bengals’ Shemar Stewart as the last first-round pick unsigned. The Broncos have just RB R.J. Harvey unsigned among their rookie class - he is one of the 30 second-rounders unsigned due to contract guarantee disputes.
Bills placed EDGE Landon Jackson on the PUP list.
Jackson will be able to be activated off the PUP list at any time during training camp, but apparently will not be ready as camp starts. If he remains on the PUP list through the 53-man roster deadline, he’ll be locked into missing a few weeks at the beginning of the season.
Falcons OC Zac Robinson said Michael Penix Jr. “opens up a different avenue within the offense.”
This is in the context of stretching the field a little more than the Falcons did in 2024, something they struggled to do at times with Kirk Cousins under center. The Athletic’s Josh Kendall also adds “The coaching staff won’t ask Penix to curtail his aggressiveness. In fact, it’s the trait they are most excited about.” A more balanced offensive approach could raise all ships in Atlanta — and it’s something that might be necessary for them as they try to stave off regression with almost no new players added to the room.
The Athletic’s Daniel Popper believes if Najee Harris misses time in training camp, the possibility of Omarion Hampton becoming the lead back is “even more likely.”
“Hampton has a chance to be an immediate difference-maker in the run game, a player with the explosiveness to score anytime he touches the ball. And he could be getting the bulk of the first-team work early in camp,” Popper continues. This is hardly an endorsement that Hampton is going to be RB1 in Los Angeles from Week 1, but Harris’ eye injury has at least complicated things early in training camp. There’s a non-zero chance that Hampton takes the baton and runs with it before Harris is ready to come back.
ESPN’s D.J. Bien-Aime reports C.J. Stroud worked on his speed to help him evade defenders in the pocket.
Stroud attributes his shoulder soreness from early OTAs and minicamps that kept him from throwing the ball to “extra work” with the Texans training staff this offseason, which is the main reason this is notable. “I’ve been working really hard on getting my body right -- losing body fat, trying to be faster, stronger,” Stroud told Bien-Aime. Stroud is an interesting QB2 this offseason, perhaps someone who could get back to QB1 status if everything clicks in Nick Caley’s new offense. The price makes him an ideal superflex investment at the moment.