NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Sunday's Divisional Round
We’re one day down in the NFL Divisional Playoff round, but we have some great games going on today. The Baltimore Ravens steamrolled the Houston Texans yesterday, and the San Francisco 49ers barely escaped with their playoff lives, giving us all the excitement we’d want out of the playoffs. The fun’s not over yet, though, as we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off against the Detroit Lions, then we get the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Buffalo for the first road playoff game of Patrick Mahomes’ career.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Let’s go into some of Monday’s options and keep the good times rolling.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
With the divisional round, we’re looking to cash quickly, so we’re not looking a gift horse in the mouth when we get a discounted pick. Allen’s yardage total has gone down from the low 200s to the high 180s, and that is something I’m definitely taking advantage of. Even with Gabe Davis out and L’Jarius Sneed on Stefon Diggs, Allen has too many weapons at his disposal to not hit this mark. It should be a pretty back-and-forth game, so Allen won’t have the luxury of taking his foot off the gas. Take advantage of this special pick before it’s gone.
Pick: Josh Allen more than 187.5 passing yards (1.77x)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
This game should be a shootout, and what better way to capitalize on that than going after Detroit’s top receiver. St. Brown has hit this mark in four of his last five games, and in the game that he didn’t hit, he was only off by two yards. Tampa Bay’s secondary was able to shut down Philadelphia last week, but they have some major issues in guarding the slot wide receivers with Christian Izien, an undrafted rookie, manning the coverage. St. Brown should be able to make him look silly, and in what should be a tight game, he’ll have plenty of looks thrown his way.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown more than 91.5 receiving yards (1.71x)
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff hasn’t let us down at home yet, and I don’t think he’s starting now. We’re going to continue to roll with him in the comfort of his dome against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed an average of 1.4 passing touchdowns per game. We know they’re difficult to run on, so even with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Goff is going to have to make plays through the air to score points. I think this game is very similar to what we saw last week, so let’s run it back one more time.
Pick: Jared Goff more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.45x)
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Player News
Steelers beat writer Mark Kaboly said “What I have been told is the Steelers view Jonnu Smith as a TE, a slot WR, and a fullback.”
As expected, it appears the Steelers have already confirmed their intention to use Smith in a versatile way. During his 2023 breakout with the Falcons in Arthur Smith’s offense, Smith lined up 29 times in the backfield, 274 times as an inline tight end, and 268 times in the slot, per PFF. We would expect to see similar usage with the Steelers in 2025, which could relegate Pat Freiermuth to more of a traditional inline tight end role after he posted a career high 268 slot snaps last season. Before last season, Freiermuth had never lined up more than 180 times in the slot. The lack of receiving upside on Pittsburgh’s roster could keep both tight ends somewhat fantasy relevant this season, but Smith undoubtedly has the higher upside heading into training camp.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Dolphins “are now in conversations with multiple teams” about a trade for a TE.
With Jonnu Smith now in Pittsburgh, the Dolphins suddenly find themselves very thin at tight end. If the season started today, the starting job would likely come down to either Julian Hill or Pharaoh Brown, which is far from ideal. We would expect the Dolphins to find a new tight end in the near future, but where that comes from is anybody’s guess. An interesting veteran option could be Mark Andrews, who is entering the final year of his deal with the Ravens, and looked like a potential cap casualty earlier this offseason; while a younger option could be the Raiders’ Michael Mayer, who was selected No. 35 overall in 2023 only to lose his role to Brock Bowers the following season. This is all speculation for the time being, but we would expect some names to emerge as rumors of a potential trade ramp up.
Steelers acquired TE Jonnu Smith, CB Jalen Ramsey, and a 2027 seventh-round pick in exchange for S Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 2027 fifth-round pick.
Smith will also sign a one-year, $12 million extension with the Steelers, per Schefter, which puts him under contract through the 2026 season. Smith broke out for 88-884-8 in his first and only season with the Dolphins, which came a year after he went for 50-582-3 with the Falcons under current Steelers OC Arthur Smith. There was mutual interest between the two sides to reunite in Pittsburgh once it became apparent that the Dolphins were unlikely to offer Smith the new extension he wanted following his breakout. His arrival to the Steel City makes for an interesting one from a fantasy perspective. For now, Pat Freiermuth remains on the roster and is only a year from signing a four-year, $48.4 million extension. The lack of talent in the Steelers’ passing game could create an environment where both tight ends co-exist, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Steelers now have two tight ends who ranked top-12 in slot snaps last season. The departure from Miami likely means Smith’s fantasy stock will take a hit in Pittsburgh’s run-heavy offense, although his ability to lineup all over the formation should work to his advantage. It’s safe to assume Freiermuth’s stock takes a hit as well, but we would expect to see plenty of 12 personnel from the Steelers this season.
Dolphins acquired S Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Steelers in exchange for CB Jalen Ramsey.
Steelers acquired CB Jalen Ramsey from the Dolphins in exchange for S Minkah Fitzpatrick.
The Dolphins trading Ramsey was always a matter of when, not if. Now, the 30-year-old corner has a new home in Pittsburgh, where he will join veteran corner Darius Slay and the recently signed Aaron Rodgers. It was reported last week by Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer that the relationship between Ramsey and the Dolphins was “past the point of no return,” which now stands to benefit the Steelers, whose pass defense ranked 22nd in PFF coverage grading (58.0) and ranked 25th in passing yards allowed per game. Ramsey appeared in all 17 games for the Dolphins last season and earned a PFF coverage grade of 71.9 while forcing two interceptions and breaking up 11 passes. While he may have lost a bit of a step as he enters his 10th season, Ramsey remains a solid presence on the outside and should pair nicely with Joey Porter Jr.
Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad, knee) said he is “healthy” and “ready to get back on the field.”
Sneed ultimately caveated the initial statement by saying he is as “healthy as [he’s] been,” effectively acknowledging that his balky knee will likely require continued maintenance. Overall, this is good news for both Sneed and the Titans’ defense, though. The veteran cornerback is capable of covering wide receivers both on the perimeter and in the slot.