NFL Week 7 has arrived, and we’ve got quite the Thursday match-up between the Denver Broncos and the New Orleans Saints and a fantastic opportunity to build our bankroll through our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

Your NFL predictions for this game should focus on the players, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that this is Sean Payton’s first time back in New Orleans and coaching for another team. Is there a revenge-game narrative that tilts our NFL picks towards the Broncos? Or do Dennis Allen and Klint Kubiak want a clear statement to the world that New Orleans is their town now and the Saints have moved on?

Let’s start with some against-the-spread data and some potential game-flow and then we’ll finalize our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football, 10/17

Another interconference matchup leaves us with limited head-to-head data to explore. The last time these teams met was in 2020 when Payton was still coaching in New Orleans, and the Saints gave Denver a 31-3 beatdown. 

The Broncos had won the previous five meetings, but now we’re talking Payton Manning under center which is a far cry from Bo Nix. Either way, the Broncos are 5-4 against the spread versus the Saints all-time.

This season, the 3-3 Broncos are 4-2 against the spread but just 1-2 ATS on the road. They have not been a favorite on the road all season. In fact, the only game they were favored in this season was Week 5 against the Raiders and they covered easily. 

On the other side, the 2-4 Saints have lost four-straight games, are 3-3 against the spread this season, 1-1 ATS at home and have yet to be an underdog at the Superdome. They are 2-2 ATS as an underdog though the first six weeks of the season.

Again, the head-to-head data is too limited to bake into our NFL picks, so let’s look at some of the injuries and potential game flow for our NFL predictions and then finalize our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Thursday, October 17th 

Before we can establish our NFL predictions or make our NFL picks, we have to look at the current state of both teams. 

On the Saints side, rookie Spencer Rattler remains under center with Derek Carr on the shelf with an oblique injury. Alvin Kamara is nursing a hand injury, Chris Olave is concussed and Rashid Shaheed is getting his knee looked at by doctors as we speak. They are also going to have quite a few offensive and defensive linemen listed as questionable with a variety of ailments.

For the Broncos, their vaunted secondary has taken a few hits. Patrick Surtain left Sunday’s game with a concussion and, like Olave, is unlikely to suit up for this game. The Broncos also might be without defensive backs Ja’Quan McMillan and Riley Moss.

The peril of playing a Thursday night game following a rough Sunday is front and center here and might have an effect on how we set up our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football. 

Despite the injuries in the Denver secondary, we fully expect the Saints to lead with a heavy run scheme. Maybe Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams get some extra work to keep Kamara fresh, but the fact remains that Kubiak and his longtime associate Rick Dennison are all about the rushing attack and the zone-blocking scheme is a proven winner. The Broncos rank 12th in DVOA against the run and are allowing an average of 114.2 rushing yards per game.

Once established, the Saints will then look to take it to the air but considering some of the struggles for Rattler in his debut, expect a lot of short, high-percentage passing. Not having Olave hurts but considering Rattler has spent the majority of his time throwing to guys like Bub Means and Mason Tipton, the impact might not be as great.

For the Broncos, it’s a bit of the opposite. Payton and his offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi know how to run the football effectively, but they like taking it to the air and as we watch Bo Nix continue to develop, we could see some more trust built. Not enough for them to ignore the ground game, especially when they are able to involve Audric Estime. 

The best way to describe what the Broncos could be doing is to take you back to when Payton and Lombardi were in New Orleans. Kamara and Mark Ingram dominated for the Saints back then, much like we expect to see Javonte Williams and Estime eventually working in tandem.

From there, the Broncos will try to open up the passing attack more. They’ve got Courtland Sutton, but the fringe wideouts are still trying to establish themselves. We’ve seen Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey each get some looks, but the Broncos definitely need to see someone step up and really grab ahold of the WR2 job.

There are a lot of moving parts here right now and things could change between now and Thursday, so before you lock in our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, be sure to check back for updates. 

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Saints Best Bet: Thursday, October 17th 

With all of the injuries and the short week for both teams, this is going to be a tough game for our NFL picks, but I’m not afraid to make a call right now. Could it change? Maybe. We’ll see with the injury updates as we get closer to kickoff. For now, I’m looking at the alternate spread. 

I don’t think the Broncos are a particularly good team and while both are dealing with rookie quarterbacks, I like what I saw from Rattler in one game more than what I’ve seen from Nix even over this last run of decent games. I also like investing in the Saints ground game. 

Even if Kamara is banged up, guys like Miller and Williams can excel in this system. I’ll lean the home dog, but I want the extra hook and will happily pay for it.

UPDATE (10/17): This line has now moved to Broncos -3 because of all the injuries to the Saints offensive line and skill players. My bet is locked and I will stand by the fact that I think the Broncos are frauds, but I DO NOT recommend betting this game against the spread. 

 

 

The 37.5 game total is pretty low, but considering it’s a Thursday night game and both teams are battling injuries, I’m expecting a lot of running the football and a lot of mistakes. 

Maybe we see a bunch of turnovers as well, but we’re looking at a lot of 3-and-outs in this one. Hate to root against fun, but money is money.

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/17

UPDATE (10/17): Again, I do not recommend betting this game but if you feel so inclined, here are a few props I am looking at. In full disclosure, I have not bet any of them myself because I think this game is trash.

 

 

 

How To Bet On Thursday Night Football At BetMGM Sportsbook & Claim Your $1,500 Bonus With Promo Code ALARM

Now that you have your NFL picks and NFL predictions for Broncos vs. Saints, it’s time to build your bankroll with our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football. 

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Get in on the action now and start placing those NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football before the game begins!