NFL Best Bets For Thursday Night Football Week 6: Picks, Predictions & More
The 2024 NFL season has been a wild one already and this Thursday it gets even more exciting with an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Both teams are looking to right the ship after being upset last week and that opens up some fantastic possibilities for our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.
Setting up our NFL predictions for this game will be tough. Under the guidance of new head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator, the Seahawks are on the rise right now, despite being upset at home by the Giants last week. They rank 10th in total points, seventh in total yards per game, third in passing yards and have the 12th-ranked defense according to DVOA numbers.
But obviously, the 49ers are no slouches themselves as they are right there with Seattle, ranking ninth in total points, second in total yards per game, fourth in passing yards and are 6th on DVOA in total defense. Before we finalize our NFL picks for our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, let’s look at some historical data for this NFC West rivalry.
NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football, 10/10
While the Seahawks lead the series 30-22-0, this rivalry has been all about the 49ers over their last five meetings. In fact, from 2012 through the end of the 2021 season, Seattle had won 17 of 20, but when play began in 2022, it’s been all 49ers and by a country mile.
The games haven’t even been that close with San Francisco winning by an average margin of more than 15 points. So, while the Seahawks are 29-20-2 against the spread when facing the 49ers, they are just 1-4 ATS over these last five games. Does history give you a lean in your NFL picks?
This season, Seattle is 3-2 straight-up, but just 1-3-1 against the spread and just 1-2 ATS at home. They are also 0-1 ATS as an underdog this season, though that game was on the road. The 49ers are 2-3 both straight-up and against the spread this season and 0-2 ATS on the road.
They are also 0-2 as a road favorite this season. Betting both teams against the spread has been tricky this year, so before finalizing our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, let’s assess potential game flow and figure out our NFL predictions for this game.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Thursday, October 10th
The game plan for the Seahawks seems pretty easy to follow. We know that offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb knows how to run the football and will try to establish things fairly early with Kenneth Walker, but this offense is all about the pass. We will have to continue monitoring the NFL injury report, but the 49ers' secondary is still very much banged-up right now.
Strong safety Talanoa Hufanga is expected to be out still while defensive backs Charvarius Ward and Ji’Ayir Brown are dealing with injuries. Add to that the injuries to the linebackers and Grubb is likely to deploy a ton of three and four-receiver sets just to keep everyone running around in coverage.
New 49ers defensive coordinator Nick Sorenson and assistant head coach Brandon Staley might still be at odds with each other regarding the coverage scheme. Sorenson prefers Cover-3 while Staley likes man-coverage. The problem here is the injury factor. Do the 49ers even have the coverage to hang with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Not really. Not with everyone so banged-up.
That might put more zone coverage in-play and that’s where Grubb’s passing attack will get you. The receivers are strong in finding the holes in zone coverage so as long as the offensive line offers up enough protection, Seattle should be able to find success through the air.
The real test is going to be Macdonald’s defense against Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Shanahan likes to use the run to set up the pass and will lead heavily with Jordan Mason as well as use Deebo Samuel in some designed end-arounds.
This is how Detroit got the better of Seattle a couple of weeks ago as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 118 rushing yards which allowed Jared Goof to be more efficient with his passing. Seattle is going to really need to stand up here. They’re giving up 128 rushing yards per game so far and won’t survive this one if they allow it again.
Once the ground game is established, look for Shanahan to deploy his receivers and tight end George Kittle. Macdonald likes to use a Cover-4 base which is good for Deebo Samuel, but he also mixes in a fair amount of man-coverage as well. I expect to see Deebo peppered with targets while Brandon Aiyuk tries to stretch the field deep. The Detroit game was really their biggest test, and they didn’t get burnt through the air. But if they don’t stop the run first, look out.
Now that we’ve assessed what the teams need to do, let’s dive into our NFL picks and finalize our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.
49ers vs. Seahawks Best Bet: Thursday, October 10th
Neither team has been particularly good against the spread this season, so it’s tough to find any reliable trends. For Thursday Night Football, home favorites have won three times with one road dog and one road favorite winning outright.
The public money is sitting on the road favorite right now, but I have a very tough time picking the Seahawks to lose twice in a row at home. The extra hook on the spread helps us out even more.
- Pick: Seahawks +3.5 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
The under is 4-1 for Thursday Night Football and considering how well these teams know each other and how strong both clubs can be defensively, it’s tough to not follow suit. The short week, the injuries, they all come into play.
Funny enough, the under is 2-3 in 49ers games this season and is 1-4 in Seahawks games. But only once in the last five meetings for these teams has the over hit, so then there’s that. The internal flip-flopping my head is doing right now is abundant, but these are two high-powered offenses with some defensive shortcomings.
- Pick: Over 47.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/10
- Jordan Mason over 80.5 rushing yards (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Tyler Lockett over 44.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- George Kittle over 48.5 receiving yards (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.
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Player News
Ravens signed DT John Jenkins to a one-year contract.
The 35-year-old 13th-year pro slides in as a 1-for-1 Michael Pierce replacement after the former Raven retired in March. Although strictly a two-down player, Jenkins actually played a new career high 606 snaps for the Raiders last season. He probably won’t reach that total in Baltimore, but he should see plenty of work as a run-stopper.
49ers signed K Greg Joseph.
The 30-year-old journeyman spent time with each of the Giants, Commanders and Jets last season. He’ll serve as a veteran, in-house option should third-year pro Jake Moody look shaky this summer after an underwhelming 2024.
49ers signed Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.
Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, Purdy gets $181 million in total guarantees with $165.1 million in the first three new years. He is now under contract through 2030. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant flashed in a handful of starts as a rookie and immediately proved to be Kyle Shanahan’s next efficiency phenom in 2023 with 4,280 yards and 31 scores. Purdy’s numbers fell in 2024, but he did enough to keep the offense on the tracks despite a rash of injuries, even if the 49ers lumbered to a 6-11 record. Purdy managed 3,864 yards and 20 scores in 15 games and showed an improved ability to work out of structure and under pressure. Though he may not have a truly elite ceiling, Purdy is beginning to beat the system quarterback allegations after just two seasons as the full-time starter. With the league’s easiest schedule on tap for 2025, expect a rebound from Purdy and the entire team this year.
Jets released K Greg Zuerlein.
Defensive end Michael Fletcher was signed in a corresponding move. Zuerlein has kicked for the Jets since 2022. He suffered a knee injury last year and briefly returned before being placed back on injured reserve. Zuerlein appeared in eight games and went a dreadful 9-of-15 on his field goal tries. The 60 percent hit rate was by far the worst of his career. Now 37 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Legatron hang up the cleats for good after being released. If he wants to keep kicking, another team will be more than willing to at least give him a camp battle to win.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his guess is that the NFL will ban the tush push during next week’s owners’ meeting.
Schefter didn’t cite any sources directly but reiterated the point later in the latest episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the owners voted to outlaw the play. Losing the free touchdown play would undoubtedly hurt Philly’s offense and Jalen Hurts’ fantasy outlook, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Hurts, an elite offensive line, and Saquon Barkley not finding other ways to get in the end zone from a yard out. If the tush push is banned, it would likely just shuffle some of Hurts’ touchdowns to Barkley. Other teams including the Bills have experimented with similar plays, but no one has found as much success as the Eagles. The owners will also be voting on a change to the playoff seeding rules. The proposed change would seed teams based purely on their record instead of each division winner earning a top-four seed. While that may be a more logical way to do things, it’s certainly less fun.
Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh reports the team has called the Saints about a possible trade for Chris Olave.
According to Farabaugh, one source described the Steelers’ inquiry as “a due diligence call” while adding that a trade “doesn’t seem likely to happen” at this time. The Steelers trade George Pickens to the Cowboys just over a week ago, and are now looking at DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, and Calvin Austin as their top options in three receiver sets. Of those three, Metcalf is the only receiver with notable NFL success, while Wilson effectively redshirted his rookie season due to injuries. Olave caught 32 passes for 400 yards and one touchdown for the Saints last season, but missed nine games due to multiple concussions he suffered. The four-year receiver posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons during his first two years in the league, and would provide an immediate upgrade to an underwhelming Steelers receiving corps. Farabaugh reports that in addition to a trade being unlikely, that the Saints do “not seem interested in trading Olave” at this time. The Saints picked up Olave’s fifth-year option last month, and will likely look to extend him in the not too distant future.