The 2024 NFL season has been a wild one already and this Thursday it gets even more exciting with an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Both teams are looking to right the ship after being upset last week and that opens up some fantastic possibilities for our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

Setting up our NFL predictions for this game will be tough. Under the guidance of new head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator, the Seahawks are on the rise right now, despite being upset at home by the Giants last week. They rank 10th in total points, seventh in total yards per game, third in passing yards and have the 12th-ranked defense according to DVOA numbers. 

But obviously, the 49ers are no slouches themselves as they are right there with Seattle, ranking ninth in total points, second in total yards per game, fourth in passing yards and are 6th on DVOA in total defense. Before we finalize our NFL picks for our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, let’s look at some historical data for this NFC West rivalry.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football, 10/10

While the Seahawks lead the series 30-22-0, this rivalry has been all about the 49ers over their last five meetings. In fact, from 2012 through the end of the 2021 season, Seattle had won 17 of 20, but when play began in 2022, it’s been all 49ers and by a country mile. 

The games haven’t even been that close with San Francisco winning by an average margin of more than 15 points. So, while the Seahawks are 29-20-2 against the spread when facing the 49ers, they are just 1-4 ATS over these last five games. Does history give you a lean in your NFL picks? 

This season, Seattle is 3-2 straight-up, but just 1-3-1 against the spread and just 1-2 ATS at home. They are also 0-1 ATS as an underdog this season, though that game was on the road. The 49ers are 2-3 both straight-up and against the spread this season and 0-2 ATS on the road. 

They are also 0-2 as a road favorite this season. Betting both teams against the spread has been tricky this year, so before finalizing our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, let’s assess potential game flow and figure out our NFL predictions for this game.

 

 

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Thursday, October 10th 

The game plan for the Seahawks seems pretty easy to follow. We know that offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb knows how to run the football and will try to establish things fairly early with Kenneth Walker, but this offense is all about the pass. We will have to continue monitoring the NFL injury report, but the 49ers' secondary is still very much banged-up right now. 

Strong safety Talanoa Hufanga is expected to be out still while defensive backs Charvarius Ward and Ji’Ayir Brown are dealing with injuries. Add to that the injuries to the linebackers and Grubb is likely to deploy a ton of three and four-receiver sets just to keep everyone running around in coverage. 

New 49ers defensive coordinator Nick Sorenson and assistant head coach Brandon Staley might still be at odds with each other regarding the coverage scheme. Sorenson prefers Cover-3 while Staley likes man-coverage. The problem here is the injury factor. Do the 49ers even have the coverage to hang with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Not really. Not with everyone so banged-up. 

That might put more zone coverage in-play and that’s where Grubb’s passing attack will get you. The receivers are strong in finding the holes in zone coverage so as long as the offensive line offers up enough protection, Seattle should be able to find success through the air. 

The real test is going to be Macdonald’s defense against Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Shanahan likes to use the run to set up the pass and will lead heavily with Jordan Mason as well as use Deebo Samuel in some designed end-arounds. 

This is how Detroit got the better of Seattle a couple of weeks ago as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 118 rushing yards which allowed Jared Goof to be more efficient with his passing. Seattle is going to really need to stand up here. They’re giving up 128 rushing yards per game so far and won’t survive this one if they allow it again.

Once the ground game is established, look for Shanahan to deploy his receivers and tight end George Kittle. Macdonald likes to use a Cover-4 base which is good for Deebo Samuel, but he also mixes in a fair amount of man-coverage as well. I expect to see Deebo peppered with targets while Brandon Aiyuk tries to stretch the field deep. The Detroit game was really their biggest test, and they didn’t get burnt through the air. But if they don’t stop the run first, look out.

Now that we’ve assessed what the teams need to do, let’s dive into our NFL picks and finalize our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football. 

 

 

 

49ers vs. Seahawks Best Bet: Thursday, October 10th 

Neither team has been particularly good against the spread this season, so it’s tough to find any reliable trends. For Thursday Night Football, home favorites have won three times with one road dog and one road favorite winning outright. 

The public money is sitting on the road favorite right now, but I have a very tough time picking the Seahawks to lose twice in a row at home. The extra hook on the spread helps us out even more.

 

 

 

The under is 4-1 for Thursday Night Football and considering how well these teams know each other and how strong both clubs can be defensively, it’s tough to not follow suit. The short week, the injuries, they all come into play. 

Funny enough, the under is 2-3 in 49ers games this season and is 1-4 in Seahawks games. But only once in the last five meetings for these teams has the over hit, so then there’s that. The internal flip-flopping my head is doing right now is abundant, but these are two high-powered offenses with some defensive shortcomings.

 

 

 

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**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.

 

 

 

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