NFL Week 7 Best Bets and Prop Bets
NFL Week 7 officially got underway with a Thursday Night Football game that epitomized my feeling about betting this week’s slate of games. Yuck. And that doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that I whiffed on the New Orleans Saints winning with a cover and the under. It has everything to do with the week’s match-ups. Just a cursory glance at the point spreads and the game totals will tell you this is going to be a difficult week. For me personally, that means I am not playing heavy at all this week. I will throw one unit on the game picks I provide and maybe a half-unit on each prop. Some weeks it’s like this. You don’t always need to have action and if you do need it, then maybe 1-800-GAMBLER is who you need to call. In the meantime, here are my picks for NFL Week 7:
NFL Week 7 Best Bets:
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
If you were listening to me on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio or caught me on the Bettor Sports Betting Show, you know I was actually in on the Bills when it was Buffalo -9.5. Does my mind change? Not with the way the line has moved, no. Everyone is freaking out about the wind and Bill Belichick scheming against Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs and while yes, 30mph gusts will limit the downfield passing, it’s not going to affect much if the Bills just shorten up their routes. The bottom line is the Patriots just don’t have the personnel t contain Buffalo’s offense. No Christian Gonzale and no Matthew Judon was bad enough as it was, but now LB Josh Uche is out while more than half a dozen other Patriots defenders are questionable. Even if they all play, I’m not convinced they have enough.
Pick: Bills -7.5 (-112)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
There seems to be significantly less concern about any potential rain which means the passing attacks will be just fine. The question is, does Seattle need to worry about that? Kenneth Walker is expected to shoulder a significant workload this week and the a heavy rushing attack usually chews up the clock and brings us much closer games than if we thought it would be an aerial assault. In this case, I see the Seahawks running heavy and commanding a lead. They’ll start throwing once the Cardinals start to catch up. I’m just not enamored with the Seahawks defense – or not enamored enough to think they blow out Arizona.
Pick: Cardinals +8.5 (-112)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
These two teams play each other tough and if you read my write-ups of both Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the NFL Week 7 DFS Playbook, then you know the recent history. If you don’t feel like clicking through, allow me to mention that over the last five meetings between these two teams, the average combined score was 57 points. Knowing what I know about both teams offenses and defenses. I’m just going to let the trend be my friend.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)
Favorite NFL Week 7 Player Props:
- Jerome Ford over 55.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Tremaine Edmunds over 8.5 tackles + assists (+114)
- Terrel Bernard over 7.5 tackles + assists (-125)
- Aaron Jones over 75.5 rush + rec yards (-115) – be sure he is playing WITHOUT limitations
- Marquise Brown Anytime TD (+195)
**all lines & odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Player News
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk reports that the NFLPA is appealing the ruling in regards to a potential collusion case regarding fully-guaranteed contracts.
Per Florio, the NFL and NFLPA agreed to pause everything in the post-ruling process indefinitely, but by choosing to file the appeal of the January 14 hearing, that’s no longer the case. It will now go forward, with a three-member appeals panel considering the ruling.
Rams RB coach Ron Gould told reporters that Kyren Williams has looked “more explosive” during the offseason.
Williams put together a solid season, but his 27 explosive rushes — runs for more than 10 yards — were tied for just 11th in the NFL last year. The 24-year-old has competition in the backfield with Jarquez Hunter and Blake Corum in the fold, but if Williams can show the ability to break off more big carries on top of being one of the best short-yardage backs in the NFL, he should remain the bellcow for the Rams again in 2025.
Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post mentions Marvin Mims as a potential number two wide receiver option behind Courtland Sutton.
Mims has yet to break out in the NFL, but the 23-year-old took a big step forward last season, registering 39 catches on 52 targets for 503 receiving yards with six touchdowns. He has made the Pro Bowl twice as a return man and only played on 27 percent of the Broncos’ offensive snaps last season, so he will need to be given a larger role if he’s truly going to emerge in this offense. He led the team in catches of 40 yards or longer, so he can break a big play when given the chance, but he’ll need to beat out second-year receivers Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele if he’s going to see an uptick in snap share.
Bijan Robinson said the Falcons have “outlandish goals” for the team’s rushing production in 2025.
Robinson and the Falcons believe they can improve on the ground after finishing 2024 with the league’s tenth most rushing yards and ninth most rushing scores. They were seventh in rush EPA and first in rushing success rate. “If he touched the ball every play and the defense knew, we’d still make big-time plays. He’s that guy,” QB Michael Penix said of Robinson. “He’s the guy that when you go to a Little League game, and there’s that one kid that never gets tackled, that scores every time, that’s him but in the NFL. As many times as we can get the ball in his hands, we’re going to do it.” It’s the latest sign the Falcons will be a run-first team in 2025, as they were in the final month of 2024. That could mean more consistent usage for Tyler Allgeier, though Robinson will remain the workhorse back in Atlanta.
The Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud reports Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs (knee) is likely to miss “at least the first couple games of the regular season.”
The All-Pro tackle underwent knee surgery this week and will miss training camp and the preseason. He could be back sometime in September, though that seems optimistic right now. Bucs coaches said in June that Wirfs sitting out minicamp was strictly precautionary and that he would be ready for training camp. Instead, he will start the season on the PUP list, which will cost him at least four games. It’s an outsized loss for the Bucs offense. Pro Football Focus graded Wirfs as 2024’s top pass blocking offensive lineman. He allowed just one quarterback hit over 16 games. Wirfs’ absence will likely impact Baker Mayfield and the team’s pass catchers.
Philly Voice’s Geoff Mosher believes Eagles RB Will Shipley is the offensive player most “under the microscope.”
Shipley was a fourth-round pick out of Clemson last year and played sparingly out of the RB3 role. Mosher is watching how the 22-year-old will step up to fill the back-up running back role that Kenneth Gainwell - who departed for the Steelers - occupied last season. Gainwell was important in pass protection and a good presence when Saquon Barkley was out on possessions for blitz pickup and pass-catching. Mosher says, “if Shipley can show growth in those areas, he could undertake Gainwell’s role and give the offense even more optionality.” The Eagles added AJ Dillon in the offseason, though Dillon is more of a downhill-runner than a third-down back for the RB2 role. Shipley won’t have much value in redraft leagues, but could find his way to production through filling in an open role in the Eagles backfield.