While I don't have any game picks against the spread for the NFL Week 16 Saturday games, I wanted to get this piece out early to give you enough time to make your football betting decisions before they start. If you caught Friday's Bettor Sports Betting Show, you'll see that Dan Servodidio has a couple of game picks for today and, actually, I have a couple of player props for Saturday as well. We got our best bets off to a solid start for the week with the Thursday night game and we're ready to keep that momentum going with picks, not just for Saturday and Sunday, but for the three-game Christmas Day slate as well. So buckle up and let's get to it!

 

 

NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

I mean, who trusts Arthur Smith or the Falcons at this point? Seriously, who? Not only are the Falcons 4-10 ATS this season, but now Smith is trying to save his job by throwing his quarterback under the bus. The switch to Taylor Heinicke has already failed once, but he's going back to it in an effort to show his boss that he was handicapped from the start because of not having a proper QB. But the decisions have been a travesty all year and even here at the end of the 2023 NFL season, we aren't encouraged regarding a turnaround. Yes, the Colts defense is flawed overall, but they've done a great job of putting pressure on the opposing quarterback and creating turnovers. Unless Smith runs the football 72 times, we could be getting vintage Heinicke who loves to throw the ball to opposing defenders. With the return of both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, the Colts have the offense to keep this one super-close and even win outright. I was tempted to take the Colts money line, but if the books are going to give me points, I'll take 'em!

Pick: Colts +2.5 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There is just way too much love being thrown around at Baker Mayfield for my liking. Yes, he had a phenomenal game last week and the Jaguars pass defense has been suspect, at best, but this is still Baker Mayfield we're talking about and he can just as easily put up a clunker as he can throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. There's an obvious concern for the Jaguars offense as Trevor Lawrence has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol, but even with C.J. Beathard under center, the Jaguars should be able to expose the vulnerability of the middle of the field for the Bucs shaky pass defense. I'm not going to call this a true road game for the Jaguars, but it's also worth noting Jacksonville is 5-1 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season. I also like betting this game before they announce Lawrence's status. If he plays, I'm guessing this could turn into a pick 'em so take the points while you can.

Pick: Jaguars +2.5

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers

Have you seen the way the Panthers are controlling the ball and the clock ever since Chris Tabor took over as the interim coach? He's given Chuba Hubbard the rock at least 22 times in each of the last three games and Carolina is putting out these long, sustained drives that just chew up the clock. That, coupled with the fact that Aaron Jones is returning to action and will likely get the call often from Matt LaFleur, this game could move pretty quickly and with a low point total. The under is 9-4-1 in Panthers games this season (3-1 over their last four) and that's with a point total below 40. The under may be 6-8 in Packers games this season, but Carolina controls the clock and that will keep the scoring down. 

Pick: Under 37.5 (-110)

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

People are still telling me the Chiefs struggle to cover big spreads at home and while that was once a very true statement, it doesn't turn out to be the case this season. In fact, in the three home games where the Chiefs have been favored at home by more than 5.5 points, they are 3-0 against the spread and two of those games had double-digit spreads. We just watched the Chiefs wreck the Raiders 31-17 back during Thanksgiving week and they are in need of some big wins here to close out the season and reassert themselves as one of the favorites to win the AFC and Super Bowl. I just don't see the Raiders keeping this one close enough, especially if Josh Jacobs is out.

Pick: Chiefs -10 (-110)

Favorite NFL Week 16 Player Props:

**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM