NFL Week 16 Best Bets and Player Props
While I don't have any game picks against the spread for the NFL Week 16 Saturday games, I wanted to get this piece out early to give you enough time to make your football betting decisions before they start. If you caught Friday's Bettor Sports Betting Show, you'll see that Dan Servodidio has a couple of game picks for today and, actually, I have a couple of player props for Saturday as well. We got our best bets off to a solid start for the week with the Thursday night game and we're ready to keep that momentum going with picks, not just for Saturday and Sunday, but for the three-game Christmas Day slate as well. So buckle up and let's get to it!
NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
I mean, who trusts Arthur Smith or the Falcons at this point? Seriously, who? Not only are the Falcons 4-10 ATS this season, but now Smith is trying to save his job by throwing his quarterback under the bus. The switch to Taylor Heinicke has already failed once, but he's going back to it in an effort to show his boss that he was handicapped from the start because of not having a proper QB. But the decisions have been a travesty all year and even here at the end of the 2023 NFL season, we aren't encouraged regarding a turnaround. Yes, the Colts defense is flawed overall, but they've done a great job of putting pressure on the opposing quarterback and creating turnovers. Unless Smith runs the football 72 times, we could be getting vintage Heinicke who loves to throw the ball to opposing defenders. With the return of both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, the Colts have the offense to keep this one super-close and even win outright. I was tempted to take the Colts money line, but if the books are going to give me points, I'll take 'em!
Pick: Colts +2.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There is just way too much love being thrown around at Baker Mayfield for my liking. Yes, he had a phenomenal game last week and the Jaguars pass defense has been suspect, at best, but this is still Baker Mayfield we're talking about and he can just as easily put up a clunker as he can throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. There's an obvious concern for the Jaguars offense as Trevor Lawrence has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol, but even with C.J. Beathard under center, the Jaguars should be able to expose the vulnerability of the middle of the field for the Bucs shaky pass defense. I'm not going to call this a true road game for the Jaguars, but it's also worth noting Jacksonville is 5-1 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season. I also like betting this game before they announce Lawrence's status. If he plays, I'm guessing this could turn into a pick 'em so take the points while you can.
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Have you seen the way the Panthers are controlling the ball and the clock ever since Chris Tabor took over as the interim coach? He's given Chuba Hubbard the rock at least 22 times in each of the last three games and Carolina is putting out these long, sustained drives that just chew up the clock. That, coupled with the fact that Aaron Jones is returning to action and will likely get the call often from Matt LaFleur, this game could move pretty quickly and with a low point total. The under is 9-4-1 in Panthers games this season (3-1 over their last four) and that's with a point total below 40. The under may be 6-8 in Packers games this season, but Carolina controls the clock and that will keep the scoring down.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
People are still telling me the Chiefs struggle to cover big spreads at home and while that was once a very true statement, it doesn't turn out to be the case this season. In fact, in the three home games where the Chiefs have been favored at home by more than 5.5 points, they are 3-0 against the spread and two of those games had double-digit spreads. We just watched the Chiefs wreck the Raiders 31-17 back during Thanksgiving week and they are in need of some big wins here to close out the season and reassert themselves as one of the favorites to win the AFC and Super Bowl. I just don't see the Raiders keeping this one close enough, especially if Josh Jacobs is out.
Pick: Chiefs -10 (-110)
Favorite NFL Week 16 Player Props:
- Tyler Boyd over 3.5 receptions (+100)
- James Cook over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
- DJ Moore over 64.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Chuba Hubbard over 16.5 rushing attempts (-115)
- DK Metcalf Anytime TD + Seahawks win (+175)
- Gardner Minshew Anytime TD (+450)
**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM
Player News
Browns RB Quinshon Judkins has been arrested and held on domestic violence charges in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Judkins was booked on Saturday and remains in custody as of this evening. ESPN’s Daniel Oyefusi reports Judkins’ initial court appearance will come Sunday morning. The Browns have said they are “aware and gathering more details.” Judkins’ arrest comes on the eve of training camp, and gets his professional career off to the worst possible start. A lengthy stay on the commissioner’s exempt list would be all but guaranteed if the charges stick. A suspension would then follow if he were convicted or admitted guilt. The situation should be updated on Sunday.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Chargers second-round WR Tre Harris did not report with fellow rookies.
That effectively makes Harris a holdout, something that has become common practice for second-round players amidst ongoing negotiations regarding guaranteed money. 30 of the 32 second-round selections from the 2025 NFL Draft have yet to sign their rookie contracts, with Harris now the first official holdout after the Chargers’ rookie report date came and went. This appears to be nothing more than “just business,” but fantasy managers will want to track the ongoing behind-the-scenes saga unfolding this year.
Veteran DT Ndamukong Suh announced his retirement from the NFL.
Suh announced his retirement in a heartfelt post on X early Saturday morning, bringing up a conversation he had with his father before the latter’s passing as the deciding factor of his decision. “It’s time to let football go. You’ve done everything you set out to do. Now it’s time for the next chapter,” Suh reflects. The five-time All-Pro amassed 600 combined tackles in 199 games during his 13-year professional career, winning Super Bowl LV as a member of the Buccaneers during the 2021 season. He last played for the Eagles in 2022 before failing to catch on as a free agent the following two seasons.
ESPN’s Daniel Oyefusi reports Kenny Pickett “developed a strong on-field rapport” with Jerry Jeudy after training with the team’s top receiver this offseason.
At 27 years old, Pickett is the middle-aged member of the Browns’ four-person quarterback competition. Although he is perhaps the least discussed member of the bunch, Oyefusi notes, Pickett respectably went “14-10 as a starter in two seasons with the Steelers.” Developing rapport with the team’s top option could give Pickett an edge in training camp and the preseason, though Pickett is unlikely to produce even high-end QB2 results were he to win the starting job.
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is expected to return to the scheme he ran early in his Cleveland tenure “with more under-center formations that utilize play-action.”
The Browns employed a 24.9 percent play-action pass play rate last season, ranking 17th among NFL teams. In his first season at the helm in 2020, Stefanski ran play action at a sixth-ranked 28.7 percent rate. Increasing the fantasy-friendly play’s usage would be a boon to Browns pass catchers. They can use all of the schematic advantages they can get, given their team’s unsettled quarterback situation.
Jaylen Waddle said he is honing his hand-eye coordination this offseason while improving his chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa.
Per ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques, Waddle viewed his hand-eye coordination as an area that “needed immediate improvement.” We agree. Although Waddle’s six drops last year tied for his career low, they led all Dolphins pass catchers and his 9.4 percent drop rate was just 0.2 percent under his career high. Louis-Jacques also notes, “these practices have also proven to be valuable reps for Waddle with Tagovailoa. Waddle is operating as the team’s No. 1 WR with Tyreek Hill (wrist) sidelined, which Tagovailoa said has allowed him and Waddle to “grow [their] chemistry.” Head coach Mike McDaniel adds that Waddle’s offseason performance is an “example of the culture the team is trying to build in 2025.” If Waddle can continue asserting himself as the team’s No. 1 WR in training camp and the preseason, a WR1 season-long finish is possible.