NFL Week 16 Best Bets and Player Props
While I don't have any game picks against the spread for the NFL Week 16 Saturday games, I wanted to get this piece out early to give you enough time to make your football betting decisions before they start. If you caught Friday's Bettor Sports Betting Show, you'll see that Dan Servodidio has a couple of game picks for today and, actually, I have a couple of player props for Saturday as well. We got our best bets off to a solid start for the week with the Thursday night game and we're ready to keep that momentum going with picks, not just for Saturday and Sunday, but for the three-game Christmas Day slate as well. So buckle up and let's get to it!
NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
I mean, who trusts Arthur Smith or the Falcons at this point? Seriously, who? Not only are the Falcons 4-10 ATS this season, but now Smith is trying to save his job by throwing his quarterback under the bus. The switch to Taylor Heinicke has already failed once, but he's going back to it in an effort to show his boss that he was handicapped from the start because of not having a proper QB. But the decisions have been a travesty all year and even here at the end of the 2023 NFL season, we aren't encouraged regarding a turnaround. Yes, the Colts defense is flawed overall, but they've done a great job of putting pressure on the opposing quarterback and creating turnovers. Unless Smith runs the football 72 times, we could be getting vintage Heinicke who loves to throw the ball to opposing defenders. With the return of both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, the Colts have the offense to keep this one super-close and even win outright. I was tempted to take the Colts money line, but if the books are going to give me points, I'll take 'em!
Pick: Colts +2.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There is just way too much love being thrown around at Baker Mayfield for my liking. Yes, he had a phenomenal game last week and the Jaguars pass defense has been suspect, at best, but this is still Baker Mayfield we're talking about and he can just as easily put up a clunker as he can throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. There's an obvious concern for the Jaguars offense as Trevor Lawrence has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol, but even with C.J. Beathard under center, the Jaguars should be able to expose the vulnerability of the middle of the field for the Bucs shaky pass defense. I'm not going to call this a true road game for the Jaguars, but it's also worth noting Jacksonville is 5-1 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season. I also like betting this game before they announce Lawrence's status. If he plays, I'm guessing this could turn into a pick 'em so take the points while you can.
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Have you seen the way the Panthers are controlling the ball and the clock ever since Chris Tabor took over as the interim coach? He's given Chuba Hubbard the rock at least 22 times in each of the last three games and Carolina is putting out these long, sustained drives that just chew up the clock. That, coupled with the fact that Aaron Jones is returning to action and will likely get the call often from Matt LaFleur, this game could move pretty quickly and with a low point total. The under is 9-4-1 in Panthers games this season (3-1 over their last four) and that's with a point total below 40. The under may be 6-8 in Packers games this season, but Carolina controls the clock and that will keep the scoring down.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
People are still telling me the Chiefs struggle to cover big spreads at home and while that was once a very true statement, it doesn't turn out to be the case this season. In fact, in the three home games where the Chiefs have been favored at home by more than 5.5 points, they are 3-0 against the spread and two of those games had double-digit spreads. We just watched the Chiefs wreck the Raiders 31-17 back during Thanksgiving week and they are in need of some big wins here to close out the season and reassert themselves as one of the favorites to win the AFC and Super Bowl. I just don't see the Raiders keeping this one close enough, especially if Josh Jacobs is out.
Pick: Chiefs -10 (-110)
Favorite NFL Week 16 Player Props:
- Tyler Boyd over 3.5 receptions (+100)
- James Cook over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
- DJ Moore over 64.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Chuba Hubbard over 16.5 rushing attempts (-115)
- DK Metcalf Anytime TD + Seahawks win (+175)
- Gardner Minshew Anytime TD (+450)
**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM
Player News
Sean Payton said that it is “too early” to project the running back depth chart.
Per ESPN’s Jeff Legwold, “Payton expects the depth chart to automatically reveal itself” during training camp, when all running backs on the roster are “going to get opportunities.” Reports immediately following J.K. Dobbins’ signing suggested the veteran back could snatch the starting role from rookie RJ Harvey. Legwold believes “Dobbins likely has the early advantage for the most snaps in the room because of his ability as a pass blocker and intelligence on third down,” but Payton’s comments indicate a true competition will take place next month.
Marquee Sports Network’s Scott Bair said Luther Burden “could make more of an impact than folks think during his rookie season.”
Bair was responding to a reader who asked whether the Bears are “in trouble” with Burden having missed so much of the offseason after landing on a football awkwardly. In short, Bair does not think so. Bair referred to Burden as “an X factor,” saying he “is still a dangerous weapon, one that can be impactful outside or in the slot.” While the slot role will provide Burden with opportunities to run routes against linebackers and safeties, mastering the perimeter role is key for fantasy purposes. He must be able to play in two-wide receiver sets in order for us to rely on him. Bair does note that “Johnson doesn’t reward those who don’t give effort during the week, so Burden must prove himself” as a consistent and hardworking practice participant.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that Bengals rookies, EDGE Shemar Stewart and LB Demetrius Knight Jr., took issue with the protection language in the team’s training camp participation agreement.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, Pelissero explains that the Bengals’ training camp participation agreement “did not provide the same level of protection as [what] other teams give their rookies.” The protection language ensures “that you are taken care of financially,” if “something were to happen, injury or otherwise.” Knight, the Bengals’ second-round pick, and the front office agreed to a contract after Knight skipped the first training camp practice, which caused less of an issue than Stewart’s ongoing saga has. Aside from the participation agreement language, Stewart also takes issue with the Bengals’ recent change in contract language. The team opted to bring their rookie contract language in line with the rest of the league, after constructing contracts uniquely in prior seasons.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said, Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson is not asking to reset the EDGE market as he seeks a contract extension, although that request could change.
Browns DE Myles Garrett, Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt and Hendrickson entered the offseason seeking contract extensions from their current teams. Only Garrett, who signed a record-setting deal, averaging $40 million annually while netting him $88.8 million fully guaranteed, received one. The three players range from 29-to-30 years old. Per Pelissero, Hendrickson has “not been asking [to be paid more than] Myles Garrett,” however, “if T.J. Watt, and Micah Parsons for that matter, outshoot Myles Garrett, then suddenly, I think [Hendrickson has] to have a little bit of a recalibration.” The longer the Bengals delay paying the NFL’s two-time-defending sack leader, the more money they may ultimately have to pay him.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said that contract length remains the lone issue preventing Micah Parsons and the Cowboys from agreeing to a contract extension.
Pelissero broke down the potential extension’s annual value, saying, Parsons “knows [exactly the] type of contract” that he is going to get because, “by Micah’s own words, he and Jerry Jones had, essentially, a handshake agreement on a deal months ago.” The issue is that Jones “is a believer in doing long-term deals,” lasting up to five or even six years. Pelissero stopped short of putting a number to Parsons’ desired contract length but noted that both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb successfully negotiated four-year extensions with the Cowboys less than one year ago.
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy declined to call Russell Wilson the “leader of the pack,” saying Wilson and Jameis Winston “allow each other to lead in their own way.”
Tracy described Wilson simply as “Mr. Unlimited,” while referring to Winston as “the one that has the personality,” who "[connects] with everybody on the football team.” NFL’s Nick Shook acknowledges that “most expect Wilson to earn the job and trot out onto the field as the team’s starter in Week 1,” but Tracy’s commentary reflects an apparent lack of buy-in from Wilson’s teammates. Though it is reasonable to expect rookie Jaxson Dart to get the starting nod at some point this season, we may see Winston on the field before then.