NFL Week 13 Best Bets and Prop Bets
After an extremely thorough look at the remaining NFL Week 13 slate, I am licking my chops when it comes to my best bets against the spread. Looking at a lot of game totals as well. It was a crazy time last week as 12 of the 16 favorites won and covered and had the Minnesota Vikings not let us down on Monday, we would have set a new NFL record for most favorites winning and covering in the modern Super Bowl era. But I'm not sure I'm expecting that once again. Now, apologies to those who were looking for me on Friday's Bettor Sports Betting Show with Dan Servodidio. I had a personal matter to tend to, but I know Jon Impemba filled in admirably. But while I've studied his and Dan's picks and player props, I've got some of my own to share with you here, so let's cut the pleasantries and get down to our football bets for Week 13.
NFL Week 13 Best Bets
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
All week long, I've been talking about how this is the third-straight home game for C.J. Stroud and the Texans and how no travel for such an extended period of time helps boost a team. Stroud's numbers at home have been stellar all season and though he may not have Tank Dell available in this game, I have no fear of him faltering. I also don't like the fact that so many people are hopping onto the Broncos bandwagon with their five-straight wins. Everyone loves Denver again. Everyone loves Sean Payton. They're going to the playoffs and everyone is even starting to turn around on Russell Wilson. Once the public starts clamoring like that, you know I head the other way.
Pick: Texans -3 (-115)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
I did a spit-take when I saw Jon Impemba throw out the no-touchdown prop for +2200 on the show Friday. I don't believe it hits, but what I do believe is that we have two teams that are going to be all about running the football and that's going to keep the scoring down and chew up a ton of clock. This game has all the similarities to the Browns/Steelers game from two weeks ago and last week's Giants/Patriots match-up. I don't see much in the way of touchdowns in this game – maybe one for Bijan Robinson – but overall, this one is going to be pretty boring…but profitable.
Pick: Under 34 (-110)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is about percentages as you've probably heard me say all week. Teams that fire their head coach during the season have won outright or at least covered almost 60-percent of the time in that next game over the last 10 years. Now, it's softened a bit over the past few seasons and the Panthers are a hot mess right now as they lost more than just their head coach, so there is some risk here. But the Bucs are dealing with a variety of injuries on defense – Devin White, Lavonte David and Jamel Dean to name a few – and it's not like they're some juggernaut offense either. We'll go with the overall trend.
Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-115)
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
If you read the NFL DFS Playbook, this pick should come as no surprise. Walking down narrative street, this game has me fading the public which has nearly 80-percent of its money on Detroit. But while, overall, I like the Lions and root for them to have a successful playoff run, this line feels awfully suspicious. Everyone loves the Lions and there's just no way they could possibly look worse than how they looked on Thanksgiving, right? Now I'm not saying they will look worse than they did against the Packers, but if we're so in on Detroit, if they're such a strong team and are 4-1 ATS on the road and the Saints are all sorts of banged-up and missing so many weapons, why is the spread only four points? I don't like it, so I'm going the other way.
Pick: Saints +4 (-110)
Favorite NFL Week 13 Player Props:
- Sam Howell over 38.5 pass attempts (-135)
- C.J. Stroud over 33.5 pass attempts (-125)
- Alvin Kamara over 50.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Jaylen Warren over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)
**all lines courtesy of BetMGM
Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.