As we head into Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, we are presented with more opportunities to build our bankroll with our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

It’s a battle in the AFC East as Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets play host to a surprising New England. If you look at the preseason NFL predictions, most people were leaving the Patriots for dead. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but suddenly, after a surprising upset of the Bengals in the first week and a near-win at home against Seattle, people are adjusting their NFL picks and suddenly, they’re not tanking for the first overall pick? 

Our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football should tell the true story of what you should expect this week.  

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football, 9/19

Historical data between the Jets and Patriots is abundant but is also skewed dramatically as we have 20 years of Tom Brady and 20 years of New York disappointment to work through. Or do we? 

Since Brady left New England, things haven’t gotten much better for the Jets as the Patriots have won seven of eight straight-up and are 6-2 against the spread. But have these teams transformed enough to move the needle in the past year?

The Jets are 1-1 both straight-up and against the spread this season. The loss to San Francisco in the first week was a bad game for them and then, thanks to a few key mistakes by Titans quarterback Will Levis, they escaped with a win and a cover last week. The Patriots shocked the world with an outright win over the Bengals in Week 1 and then garnered a push against the Seahawks with, again, a surprising effort. 

Do we believe the whispers around New England that the Patriots might just be the hottest team in football, or do we believe in the Jets enough to break the pattern of losing and back them with our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football?

 

 

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Thursday, September 19th

Making the right NFL prediction on a game requires a lot of game and match-up analysis, but it also requires leaving emotion and certain things we saw in previous weeks out of our process. You have to shake off the hype coming out of the Boston area. This Patriots team is not good, and we knew this heading into the season. 

Do we suddenly believe that, after beating a Bengals team that had virtually no preseason and then keeping it close against a Seahawks team learning a new offense and traveling across the country, Jacoby Brissett is the answer? Of course not, and our NFL picks will reflect that.

The Patriots are doing it all with defense and some offensive smoke and mirrors. Against a tougher pass-rush and stronger coverage in the secondary, they are going to struggle. Yes, teams with so much familiarity play each other a lot tougher, but Brissett is a journeyman for a reason.

 

 

 

The key for the Patriots will be in establishing the run. They need to control the clock and the pace of this game. The Jets have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game through the first two weeks (155.0) and if they let the Patriots offensive line push them around, Rhamondre Stevenson is going to have one of those games where he gets 25 carries, and the clock gets chewed up. If the Jets can stifle the running game, then Brissett will have to take it to the aur and not only does he not have the weapons for that, but the Jets secondary will feast on potential turnovers.

For the Jets, they too need to establish a strong ground presence. The Patriots have allowed just 55 rushing yards per game and did a great job shutting down Zach Charbonnet last week. The Jets revamped offensive line need a strong push early on and Breece Hall needs to show everyone why he is such a valuable commodity.

But, of course, the Jets go the way of Aaron Rodgers, and he is going to need to be sharp if he wants to best the New England pass defense. Perhaps he and Nathaniel Hackett need to take a page out of Seattle’s game plan and turn Garrett Wilson into this week’s DK Metcalf. Christian Gonzalez is a tough corner, but the Jets need the rest of their receiving targets to show up enough to warrant coverage being dispersed and not just focused on Wilson. 

The Jets need to strike first and early. The key for them and their defense is to put the Patriots on their heels and not allow them to just hand the ball off to Stevenson all day. Rodgers needs to be at his best and he needs to be on the same page as his receivers. If they can get an early score and then work on establishing Breece Hall’s presence, they can withstand whatever the Patriots offense throws at them.

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Jets Best Bet: Thursday, September 19th

The early public money is leaning towards the Jets and laying the 6.5 points and while I am typically about fading the public, I’m more about fading the team off to a hot start when no one had them winning early games in their NFL predictions. The first two weeks of games have been a rollercoaster ride with favorites dominating in Week 1 and underdogs dominating in Week 2. 

Water finds its own level and knowing what we know about both of these teams, their coaches and their personnel, it’s difficult to just throw away everything we knew about them during the preseason. Barring some catastrophic incident leading up to this game, you know exactly where we’re going with our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football. 

 

 

 

The Week 3 game totals are absolutely bonkers as Vegas is telling us to expect a wildly low-scoring week. In fact, there are five games this week with a total under 40 points. The over is 3-4 in primetime games this season, but the 37.5 line here seems a little low for a game where Aaron Rodgers needs to dominate and set the tone for the rest of the season. The Patriots will do whatever they can to slow everything down with the run, but in the end, this one feels like it could be a 27-13 kind of game.

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/19

 

 

 

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