NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
The NFL primetime schedule has been fantastic so far with three really strong games. Four if you want to champion the efforts of Jordan Mason. Now we get another fantastic matchup with the Houston Texans hosting he Chicago Bears and another great opportunity to win some money with our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football.
It’s been a rock-solid start to the season across the board here at Fantasy Alarm so if you’re looking for the best in NFL picks and NFL predictions, keep reading. Watching C.J. Stroud at home last season was an outstanding display of poise and precision-passing. His opponent, Caleb Williams is looking to have the same success here in his rookie campaign. Does he have the weaponry? Does he have the same fierce instincts that Stroud displayed during his rookie season? All of that and more to be answered as we look to lick in some NFL best bets for Sunday Night football.
NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, 9/15
Given the fact that Caleb Williams is playing in his first NFL road game, there isn’t much data for us to look at here to ais in our NFL predications. The Bears won outright last week and covered the 3.5-point spread, but it was more thanks to the defense and special-teams units. Straight-up, the Bears are 50-41-6 all-time in Week 2 and they are 22-20-1 against the spread, but again, what does that tell you about Williams or how this offense is running in 2024?
On the other side, we have a little more meat on the bone when it comes to the Stroud, the Texans and what we’re thinking for our NFL picks. The Texans pulled out the win last week against the Colts but failed to cover the three-point spread. When we look at last season’s data, the Texans were 6-2 at some straight-up with Stroud under center and 5-3-1 against the spread in those games. The data isn’t extensive, but it’s definitely good to know as we check in with anticipated game flow and figure out where we want to lay our action for our NFL best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: Sunday, September 15th
The featured storyline for Bears vs. Texans on Sunday night seems to be focused on Williams vs. Stroud – the 2024 No. 1 overall picks squaring off against the No. 2 overall pick from the 2023 NFL draft. Of course, Stroud probably should have been the No. 1 overall his year as well, but that’s an argument for another time and one we all endured last season anyway. For this game, though, while both quarterbacks are on a pedestal, the true battle should focus on the defensive match-ups.
Williams definitely struggled in his first game against the Titans. He completed just 48.3-percent of his passes and his timing with his receivers was way off. The Bears brought in Keenan Allen to serve as a potential security blanket on the shorter routes, but he only managed to hail in four of his 11 intended targets. Williams is going to have to get on the same page with his pass-catchers because this Houston defense is tough, both with the pass-rush and the coverage.
Last week, Williams was sacked twice, took another couple of hits and the Tennessee defense managed eight tackles for a loss. If the Bears are going to get their ground game working to support Williams, the line needs to hold better. If Williams gets the protection he needs, he should be able to find some holes in the defensive zones. DJ Moore and Allen should be fine there, but with Rome Odunze potentially missing this game, the Texans secondary may not have as tough a job.
On the other side, the Bears defense, which rated well coming into the season, is going to have its hands full. Bobby Slowik ditched the 21-personnel and turned to more two-TE sets. We often saw Brevin Jordan line up as a fullback, but Joe Mixon spent a lot of time in the backfield by himself. It worked beautifully as Mixon turned out 159 rushing yards and a touchdown on 30 carries, but, more importantly, it also saw Slowik turn to more 11-personnel (three-receiver sets) than he used last season.
Coming into this match-up against the Bears who play a ton of Cover-2 and sit in zone coverage nearly 80-percent of the time, the Texans are going to have a field day with the increased use of 11-personnel. Nico Collins stretches the field, Stefon Diggs runs both the short and intermediate routes, while Tank Dell usually does both. In three-receiver sets, you’ll likely see both Diggs and Dell working out of the slot which is going to make things difficult for Kyler Gordon.
A true test for the Bears defense this week, but all of this certainly helps us with our NFL best bets for Sunday Night Football. If you’re ready with your NFL predictions, we’ve got some NFL picks for you to consider.
Bears vs. Texans Best Bet: Sunday, September 15th
Having read through the match-up information, you probably have a good idea where we are going with our NFL best bets for Sunday Night Football. The Texans may be young, but they come off like a group of well-seasoned veterans. Mixon adds an improved rushing element for the offense and Stroud already looks comfortable with Diggs. Mix in the talents of both Collins and Dell and it’s difficult to think this team won’t score some points this week, even though the Chicago defense is sound. The Bears are still a work in progress, though and until we see what this offense can really do, we’re going to favor the Texans side and look for their defense to stand tall.
Pick: Texans -6.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
The over is 3-2 in the five primetime games we’ve seen this season, all of which featured teams with highly-prolific scoring offenses. When looking to make our NFL predictions for this game, we know the Texans can score, but can the Bears? Can Williams turn things around in the passing game? Can the offensive line keep the pressure off? Will the Texans pass-rush be too much for them? While I believe Williams will develop into a solid professional, there are going to be too many growing pains to start this season. We’ll err on the side of caution and keep the thoughts of it being a little one-sided for much of the game.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/15
- C.J. Stroud under 267.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- DeAndre Swift under 11.5 rushing attempts (-130 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Tank Dell Longest Reception over 21.5 yards (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.