Dynasty Fantasy Football 2025: How To Understand NFL Draft Narratives
It may seem odd to outsiders, but the NFL Draft is a divisive topic for dynasty fantasy football. There’s a split in how to view and value the outcomes.
On one side, you have the analytics community telling you that draft capital (how early a player is selected) is the number one indicator of future fantasy football success. On the other hand, you’ll have those that trust in their talent evaluation claiming that the draft is, at best, meaningless and, at worst, actively deceiving you.
The draft obviously isn’t the be-all, end-all. This game would be easy if it were. But I’m of the belief that it’s a helpful data point. Ignoring the draft for your dynasty league is like flipping the puzzle pieces upside down.
Sure, you can do it that way. But you are making life harder on yourself. And you don’t get any extra points for doing things the hard way or “being first” - you only score fantasy points by being right.
We have the data that shows that draft capital matters. But I prefer a deeper level of context when I’m analyzing the draft. Rather than just look at how early a player goes or to what team, I like to get a little more granular with the flow and the nuances of the draft in something a little more all-encompassing that I refer to as “draft narrative”.
What Is A Draft Narrative In The NFL Draft?
If you look at some of the top statistical models to value rookies created by analysts in the space, they mostly agree that draft capital is a key component. Ask guys like JJ Zachariason, Dwain McFarland, or Ryan Heath whether they believe you should include draft capital in your analysis.
Statistically speaking, it’s the most accurate predictor of future success. JJ Zachariason even goes as far as to exclude some data points, like rushing yards for RBs, because they are encapsulated by draft capital.
However, one of the biggest flaws in the draft system when it comes to analysis is that it only takes ONE team being very wrong to throw things off. If 31 teams have a Day 3 grade on a player, but the one other team takes him in the first round, that’s going to throw that “draft capital” value for a loop.
In most cases, we never quite know how the 31 other teams feel about a player. Maybe every once in a while, a clip will emerge like the one of the Vikings front office laughing when the Eagles took Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson. But that still just gives us the opinion of two teams.
What we can do, however, is take a step back and analyze the entire flow of the draft to get a better understanding of how the teams value these players - especially when there are multiple teams with similar needs and multiple players available with similar skill sets.
If multiple teams that need a running back pass on certain backs round after round, what does that tell you about the consensus among professional scouts on that player? I mean, there is a reason they show the faces of quarterbacks who slide on the broadcast - draft capital is especially indicative of future success at that position, per our research.
By diving just a little deeper into the needs and schemes of certain teams, we can paint a better picture of why certain guys get selected at certain spots - and what their upside is for fantasy.
NFL Draft Narratives Example
As an example, let’s look back at the 2020 NFL Draft. There were multiple teams in this draft that could have used a big-bodied wide receiver to play split end. The Bengals, the Colts, the Steelers, the Jets, the Raiders, the Commanders etc. were all in the market for one.
The first round saw some great general WR talents like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, and Brandon Aiyuk go but, as Day Two of the draft opened up, there were still some highly touted options on the board.
The following big wide receivers who could play split end were considered the top remaining options on most boards in various orders.
- Tee Higgins
- Denzel Mims
- Bryan Edwards
- Michael Pittman
- Chase Claypool
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
- Antonio Gandy-Golden
When the second round of the draft started, the Bengals immediately selected Tee Higgins with pick 2.01. The Indianapolis Colts then traded up and took Michael Pittman Jr right after him at pick 2.02. As we mentioned earlier, those two teams could obviously have reached or been wrong.
But we now at least know these two teams that needed split ends made these two players a priority. They could have chosen any one of those players. And it’s what happened next with the remaining guys that is most interesting in terms of draft narrative.
Laviska Shenault and KJ Hamler were the next two wide receivers picked though they did not fit the profile to play true split end. At pick 48, the Jets were on the clock and, despite needing a big wide receiver, they decided to trade OUT of that spot with the Seahawks. The Steelers, with their next pick, chose Chase Claypool.
Ten more picks went by and then, with the pick they got from Seattle, the Jets decided to take a shot on Denzel Mims. The Raiders later took Bryan Edwards in the third round (after having selected Henry Ruggs in the first), then Antonio Gandy-Golden went to Washington in the fourth, and Donovan Peoples-Jones fell to Cleveland in the sixth.
Player | Round | Overall Pick |
2 | 33 | |
2 | 34 | |
2 | 49 | |
2 | 59 | |
3 | 81 | |
4 | 142 | |
6 | 187 |
Not every player is going to have the same attributes or offer the same abilities. But these guys all had size and decent enough overlapping traits to group together in terms of profile. We watched teams make Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman a priority.
We watched multiple teams, including the Jets themselves, pass on Denzel Mims multiple times. We watched Antonio Gandy-Golden and Donovan Peoples-Jones fall into rounds that virtually never produce fantasy-relevant players.
Yet here is what the consensus combined expert rookie rankings looked like, as compiled by user u/smbrynien on the DynastyFF subreddit in May of 2021. These were not pre-draft rankings, mind you. These are post-draft. These were rankings AFTER we saw what happened.
Player | Draft Order | Consenus Rank |
WR6 | WR5 | |
WR12 | WR6 | |
WR7 | WR7 | |
WR13 | WR10 | |
WR10 | WR12 | |
WR16 | WR13 | |
WR25 | WR18 |
Here are the career fantasy points so far for this collection of split ends. Many of them are already out of the league or are bouncing around on practice squads.
Higgins, Pittman, and Claypool are the only ones to post a top 24 WR season at any point - the first three of the group selected.
Player | Career PPR Points |
664.3 | |
535.0 | |
333.2 | |
241.7 | |
101.9 | |
69.6 | |
2.5 |
Using NFL Draft Narratives In 2025
In many of these cases, there was a key element to blame. Preconceived notions. Why else would a player like Hakeem Butler still be taken so high in so many rookie drafts in 2019 despite falling to the fourth round as the WR14 off the board? Sometimes, you have to put your ego in check and understand what professional scouts are telling us.
They don’t always get it right, but they have information we simply don’t have from regional scouts and meetings with these guys. And the earlier a player is picked, the more likely it is that they even get an opportunity to show what they can do.
Every once in a while, you will have guys that fall through the cracks and slide in the draft - and it’s okay to draft them with your later picks. Once the top options are gone, you have to take stabs somewhere. But deviating significantly from what that narrative of the draft is telling us time and time again is almost certainly going to hurt you in the long run. There is a reason draft capital is a major component of every statistical model.
The sharpest gamers are going to recognize that the draft isn’t everything - it’s one key component. It’s our main job to figure out where to deviate from draft capital and when to lean into it. Maybe we avoid guys who are obvious field stretchers like KJ Hamler.
Maybe we worry that a guy got pushed up in the draft because of special teams like Andy Isabella. Conversely, maybe a guy only fell in the draft because of off-field issues, like Antonio Brown or Tyreek Hill. Whatever it may be, the narrative of the draft can tell us more than pure draft capital alone.
That’s why, with our 2025 Pre-Draft Rookie Wide Receiver Tiers, we do our best to help you understand WHO these players are. The key on the tiers grid says whether we think they can play split end, flanker, slot, field stretcher etc. And the notes give you an idea of who should be grouped with who when you consider draft narratives. How else can we compare a 5’8” guy who plays 90% of his snaps from the slot to a 6’4” 215-pound X receiver?
The draft should absolutely shake up the rankings of any fantasy analyst worth listening to. Knowing the profiles of these players going into the draft and the teams that could use that particular skill set is only going to make the draft more enjoyable for you - and it will help you crush your own dynasty fantasy football drafts!
Player News
49ers signed K Greg Joseph.
The 30-year-old journeyman spent time with each of the Giants, Commanders and Jets last season. He’ll serve as a veteran, in-house option should third-year pro Jake Moody look shaky this summer after an underwhelming 2024.
49ers signed Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.
Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, Purdy gets $181 million in total guarantees with $165.1 million in the first three new years. He is now under contract through 2030. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant flashed in a handful of starts as a rookie and immediately proved to be Kyle Shanahan’s next efficiency phenom in 2023 with 4,280 yards and 31 scores. Purdy’s numbers fell in 2024, but he did enough to keep the offense on the tracks despite a rash of injuries, even if the 49ers lumbered to a 6-11 record. Purdy managed 3,864 yards and 20 scores in 15 games and showed an improved ability to work out of structure and under pressure. Though he may not have a truly elite ceiling, Purdy is beginning to beat the system quarterback allegations after just two seasons as the full-time starter. With the league’s easiest schedule on tap for 2025, expect a rebound from Purdy and the entire team this year.
Jets released K Greg Zuerlein.
Defensive end Michael Fletcher was signed in a corresponding move. Zuerlein has kicked for the Jets since 2022. He suffered a knee injury last year and briefly returned before being placed back on injured reserve. Zuerlein appeared in eight games and went a dreadful 9-of-15 on his field goal tries. The 60 percent hit rate was by far the worst of his career. Now 37 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Legatron hang up the cleats for good after being released. If he wants to keep kicking, another team will be more than willing to at least give him a camp battle to win.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his guess is that the NFL will ban the tush push during next week’s owners’ meeting.
Schefter didn’t cite any sources directly but reiterated the point later in the latest episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the owners voted to outlaw the play. Losing the free touchdown play would undoubtedly hurt Philly’s offense and Jalen Hurts’ fantasy outlook, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Hurts, an elite offensive line, and Saquon Barkley not finding other ways to get in the end zone from a yard out. If the tush push is banned, it would likely just shuffle some of Hurts’ touchdowns to Barkley. Other teams including the Bills have experimented with similar plays, but no one has found as much success as the Eagles. The owners will also be voting on a change to the playoff seeding rules. The proposed change would seed teams based purely on their record instead of each division winner earning a top-four seed. While that may be a more logical way to do things, it’s certainly less fun.
Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh reports the team has called the Saints about a possible trade for Chris Olave.
According to Farabaugh, one source described the Steelers’ inquiry as “a due diligence call” while adding that a trade “doesn’t seem likely to happen” at this time. The Steelers trade George Pickens to the Cowboys just over a week ago, and are now looking at DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, and Calvin Austin as their top options in three receiver sets. Of those three, Metcalf is the only receiver with notable NFL success, while Wilson effectively redshirted his rookie season due to injuries. Olave caught 32 passes for 400 yards and one touchdown for the Saints last season, but missed nine games due to multiple concussions he suffered. The four-year receiver posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons during his first two years in the league, and would provide an immediate upgrade to an underwhelming Steelers receiving corps. Farabaugh reports that in addition to a trade being unlikely, that the Saints do “not seem interested in trading Olave” at this time. The Saints picked up Olave’s fifth-year option last month, and will likely look to extend him in the not too distant future.
Browns signed No. 67 overall pick TE Harold Fannin to a four-year contract.
According to FOX Sports’ Jordan Schultz, Fannin’s deal is worth a total of $6.7 million. The Browns selected Fannin with the No. 67 overall pick in this year’s draft, and while he may not earn a significant role in his rookie season, he could be in line to make more of an impact in 2026 if David Njoku walks after his contract expires at the end of the 2025 season. Fannin caught 117 passes for 1,555 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final season at Bowling Green. Known more for his pass-catching prowess than his abilities as a blocker, Fannin could prove to be a sneaky fantasy value this season if Njoku were to ever miss time.