Fantasy Football Best Ball: Taking Advantage Of Early RB ADP At Underdog
Many are saying that this is a “weak” class at running back. Which is sad for the dynasty fantasy football gamers out there. But, in best ball, that just means less competition for incumbent backs and less randomness.
Giant tournaments like Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania V with $15 million in prizes are already open. Yet folks don’t really know how to react in the immediate aftermath of the NFL Draft; ADP is a mess. It’s the perfect time for us to swoop in and scoop up some values and sleepers before everyone adjusts!
I’ve already been in those best ball streets early putting in the work for us. And I can assure you, it’s all over the place out there. We’ve already hit on quarterback sleepers at ADP, so today, I’m going to share some free running back values that I’m seeing.
This is merely a sample of the kind of analysis and the ranking goodness that you get in the Fantasy Alarm Best Ball Guide so don’t forget to pick up your copy today if you like winning money!
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants
This happens every year with draft “winners” and “losers”. ADP does not update fast enough. Kyren Williams and James Conner should be coming down (more on Kyren below). Meanwhile, guys like Zamir White and Devin Singletary should be moving up.
In the early drafts I’ve done, White has gone early at times as you’ll occasionally run into some sharp gamers out there who are paying attention to the right details. But Singletary, as RB35 off the board, is fairly consistently there as a value in the drafts I’ve been in.
Singletary last year beat out Dameon Pierce for the RB job in Houston. Flat out. Houston upgraded to Joe Mixon this offseason, but Singletary landed a three-year contract with the Giants after Saquon Barkley walked. The Giants coach, Brian Daboll, is obviously familiar with Singletary after their time together in Buffalo. And not one other running back on that Giants roster was drafted earlier than round five in the NFL Draft.
Tyrone Tracey hardly even played running back in college – he was a wide receiver until he transferred to Purdue. All rookies are projects that need to develop but Tracy is essentially a double project. Singletary should have no problem earning that starting gig. And he should crack your best ball lineups plenty.
You can’t trust ADP right now, but I’ve done enough of these early drafts to know exactly where you can get him without overpaying. His ranking in our Best Ball Draft Guide reflects that.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
You might need to be quick with this one as Elliott is slowly moving up in ADP. As of yesterday, there were THREE Miami Dolphins running backs all going before the first Cowboys back – now Zeke goes pick 141 as the RB41 with Jaylen Wright going at pick 144.
But he’s still an insane value for the time being as these things often take a couple of weeks to fully correct. As crazy as it sounds, Ezekiel Elliott is likely the starting running back for the Dallas Cowboys. That’s a team that Vegas with an over/under win total line of 10.5 games.
Folks also might not realize that Zeke quietly got 65 targets last year which was top 12 for RBs. The Cowboys spent the bulk of their draft beefing up on the offensive line while not signing or drafting any other back. There is no doubt that Zeke, even at his age, is far better than Rico Dowdle.
As of now, it looks like Jerry Jones’s plan is to let best friends Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott make one more go of things before he decides to either pay Dak or move on. And I’m grabbing some shares of Zeke in best ball now and may even go for some in redraft too if they don’t make a move – especially at this price.
Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Folks were so busy hating on Corum before the draft that they seem to have missed when a team with only three running backs on the roster made him the third running back off the board in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. That type of draft capital is nothing to sneeze at for a guy who scored 58 rushing touchdowns in college. And he may be able to carve himself out a role right from the rip.
We’ve seen this time and time again: a late-round running back breaks out for fantasy football and we get really excited. James Robinson, Philip Lindsay, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Michael Carter. But NFL teams often look at those seasons and say, “Our run game was great, what if we add another back in the draft? Then how good would it be?”.
The Rams didn’t exactly add Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall here, but they did add a back that complements Kyren Williams. Not only does Black Corum have a nose for the endzone, but he didn’t allow a single sack in pass protection during his four years at Michigan. And, as we pointed out back in February, Kyren Williams has not exactly been stellar in that facet of the game.
Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.