NBA DFS Playbook May 11: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Plays
We have a two-game NBA DFS slate on Thursday, May 11th, on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have two teams that could be eliminated tonight in the Boston Celtics, playing on the road, and the Phoenix Suns who are playing at home but are short-handed. The key news today is Jamal Murray's questionable status due to an illness and Deandre Ayton being ruled out. Be sure to check out our NBA DFS projections, powered by FanJections, NBA DFS Lineup Generator, and all of the rest of our NBA DFS content and tools! Plus, be sure to check out NBA player props and NBA best bets from our friends at Bettor Sports Network before tonight's NBA Playoffs matchups. Let's dive into my NBA DFS pick and top plays for daily fantasy basketball lineups tonight.
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
O/U: 212.5
Spread: BOS -2.5
Celtics Injuries
- Danilo Gallinari - OUT
76ers Injuries
- Joel Embiid - QUEST
Boston Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown
UPDATE - Boston is starting Robert Williams III tonight. He's instantly one of the top values on the board. In my opinion, he has a higher ceiling than Jock Landale, as both centers likely split the ownership. Where Landale has Williams' beat is that the Suns center is playing without the starter whereas nobody is out for Boston, just a lineup change.
Here’s how we should be looking at the Celtics' guard situation. Marcus Smart has the safest floor, Malcolm Brogdon has the highest upside, and Derrick White is last-piece-in.
The Celtics need Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in order to extend this series to Game 7. Brown has not been worth his price tag and Tatum has been worth his in gold. Tatum’s been excellent of late.
It’s hard to imagine Al Horford having another poor shooting night like he did in Game 5. He shot 46% from the floor and 43% from three this season. Robert Williams is much like Derrick White; last piece in.
Tier 1 Play(s): Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Robert Williams III
Tier 2 Play(s): Jaylen Brown, Derrick White
Philadelphia 76ers NBA DFS Breakdown
The field gave up on Tyrese Maxey but we didn’t. We’re going right back to the well again considering how good he looked last game and even when he was playing poorly, he didn’t stop shooting. Love Maxey at 6.3K. James Harden has played three really good games this series and has had two mediocre performances. His biggest game came in Philly, where Game 6 is being played. De'Anthony Melton is once again a lineup filler.
Tobias Harris played his best game in Game 5 as he notched a 16-point double-double over 31 minutes. He’s been in foul trouble of late and Danuel House Jr. benefitted in Game 5 with 15 minutes. He had 17.8 DKP and is 3.3K. If playing multiple lineups you can take a shot on him.
After missing Game 1 and being ineffective in Game 2, Joel Embiid has been fantastic in three straight games. He’s put up 53+ DKP in each game and has flashed a 61 FP ceiling during that span. He’s under 10K.
Tier 1 Play(s): Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, James Harden
Tier 2 Play(s): Tobias Harris, De'Anthony Melton
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
O/U: 226
Spread: PHX -2.5
Nuggets Injuries
- Jamal Murray - QUEST
- Collin Gillespie - OUT
Suns Injuries
- Chris Paul - OUT
- Deandre Ayton - OUT
Denver Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown
A lot of what to do with Denver’s DFS value tonight is contingent on what happens with Jamal Murray. Murray missed shootaround and is questionable with an illness tonight. If he doesn’t play, Bruce Brown likely slides into starting lineup and plays big minutes. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a solid value that will likely play big minutes here. They might ask him for a bit more offensively if Murray sits.
On the wing for Denver, Christian Braun could be the largest beneficiary to Murray’s absence. He’d be a nice value if Murray sat. Michael Porter Jr. is having a GREAT series as he’s notching 36+ DKP in three straight games. Aaron Gordon has a decent floor for his 5.9K price point but hasn’t flashed much upside. That being said, he’s shot less than 31% in two of the last three games. He averages 1.25 FP/min without Murray.
Nikola Jokic becomes the first player in your lineup if Jamal Murray is out. Nikola Jokic is still probably the first person in your lineup if Jamal Murray plays.
Tier 1 Play(s): Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon (if Murray sits), Michael Porter Jr.
Tier 2 Play(s): Aaron Gordon (if Murray plays), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Christian Braun (if Murray sits)
Phoenix Suns NBA DFS Breakdown
Things are not great for Phoenix tonight as Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton are both out. Cameron Payne has played 30 minutes twice in the last three games but hasn’t done much. He might need to do more without Paul and Ayton. Payne averages 1.23 FP/min without Ayton, Paul, and Mikal Bridges this year. Rumors are that Landry Shamet is going to start for Phoenix. He’s in play for sure, but I lean Terrence Ross’ way. Maybe even T.J. Warren’s as well. Ross is one of the better value’s on the board.
Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are both obvious spend-up’s and using one plus another spend up is possible with how much value has opened up and how much more might come to us if Jamal Murray sits.
With Deandre Ayton out, the field is going to so overweight on Jock Landale and he’s a good play for sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Bismack Biyombo re-enter the lineup here either.
Tier 1 Play(s): Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Terrence Ross (GPPs), Jock Landale
Tier 2 Play(s): Landry Shamet, T.J. Warren, Bismack Biyombo (GPPs)
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.