Happy Monday April 21st, we are onto two game twos in the NBA playoffs as the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks battle in New York and the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets are in Denver. Both of their first games were amazing, especially the Clippers and Nuggets.

The stars are out as Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, James Harden, and Cade Cunningham are taking the floor in their most meaningful game of the year.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

6:00 pm ET

  • Isaiah Stewart has been ruled OUT. Expect Paul Reed to pickup some run, but I’m slightly more bullish on Jalen Duren. I expect them to go small at times tonight as well. Reed will not absorb all Stewart’s minutes.

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/21

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks

  • Total: 218.5
  • Spread: NYK -7

Pistons NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 15th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 7th

The Pistons first playoff game went extremely well until it didn't. They were leading up until a 21-0 Knicks fourth quarter run put them down. The Pistons have the second best implied point total today and basically played eight guys, barely giving Ronald Holland numbers. We saw Cade Cunningham play 40 minutes but wasn't great, going 8-for-21 from the floor and couldn't shake OG Anunoby's defense off of him. Cunningham had a 32% USG, so if the shots falling, he's going to clear 50 FP with ease. The Pistons closed BOTH halves with Dennis Schroder and he played 25 minutes. I love the price if he's going to play as much as he did last game. The Pistons were in a heap of foul trouble, for what that's worth.

The wing room for the Pistons is one of the keys to the slate, in my opinion. If Ausar Thompson stays out of foul trouble, he could be extended for 30 minutes here and in that case, does Tim Hardaway or Malik Beasley lose minutes? My guess would be Hardaway Jr. if Beasley's making shots like he did in Game 1. Beasley's also the better primary defender. Thompson's DK price makes him the most enticing.

The veterans are who the Pistons leaned on in Game 1 and Tobias Harris was amazing in that game. He played 40 minutes and shot 8-for-13 from the floor, scoring 25 points. That's going to be the role for Harris in this series and if OG Anunoby continues to hound Cunningham, his number will continue to be called on.

It's not only because of the foul trouble, but Jalen Duren did not look great in this game and it might be a better series for Isaiah Stewart, but Stewart himself is questionable. Stewart's the better value if he suits up and I'd play him before I'd play Duren.

Knicks NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 11th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 26th

The Knicks played..wait for it..NINE guys in their first playoff game this series. Couldn't believe it with my own eyes. Now, three starters played at least 39 minutes and Josh Hart probably would've too if he didn't get in massive foul trouble but still, look at Thibs! One of the three playing 40 minutes was Jalen Brunson who was great in this one, mainly in the second half. I think his production will be secondary to Karl-Anthony Towns this series, especially on nights that Ausar Thompson can stay out of foul trouble. Brunson had a massive 34% USG rate in Game 1. You can punt with Cameron Payne, but I'm not confident he'll be THIS good again.

On the wing, we need to find out which celebrities will be in New York before clicking OG Anunoby, but man was he quite good in Game 1. 44 minutes, 23 points, and nearly 50 DKP too. He'll be the most popular Knick tonight by a country mile. A nice pivot, or play them both, is Josh Hart. Hart, despite being in foul trouble, was really good in this one posting 32 DKP in 29 minutes and he only sat for 1:30 second half minutes. He was approaching a triple-double with more time. Mikal Bridges is there too. He's a guy. I don't expect him to get benched for Cameron Payne every game, but Bridges did little to nothing in this one.

Man, Karl-Anthony Towns is just going to be my first click basically every time this series is on a slate. During the second half of the season, the Detroit Pistons allowed the fourth most second choice points per game and we know how good Towns can be on the glass. The same can be said for Mitchell Robinson who's sub-4K and played 18 minutes, but that number is a little fake if Josh Hart simply stays out of foul trouble.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets

  • Total: 218.5
  • Spread: LAC -1.5

Clippers NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 7th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 25th

Despite losing Game 1, the Clippers enter Game 2 as a 1.5-point favorite, which shouldn't be understated. The Clippers are extremely cheap and easy to get to here. James Harden looked incredible in Game 1, at times the best player on the floor, as he posted a 32-point double-double and put up a 60 FP game. The last four games Harden's played in he's had 60+ DKP and he's put up 51+ in six straight. Kris Dunn has a very low offensive floor, but the minutes are solid enough and he's cheap enough to click.

Let's face it; the Clippers need more out of Norman Powell. He went just 5-for-12 and put up just 24.75 DKP. The price here is fantastic, but Powell was a 21 PPG scorer this year. I could see the Bogan Bogdanovic minutes going away because the Nuggets targeted him in every possession he played in. Not playing him in DFS.

Kawhi Leonard did not look great in Game 1, but he had a 27% USG and the seven turnovers are likely cut in half too. I'm more than willing to go back to the well here. Nicolas Batum's minutes were great in Game 1 as they use him as their backup center, but obviously he has a LOW floor. Derrick Jones is also a decent pivot at near min-salary as his minutes looked similar to Kris Dunn's who's significantly higher owned than DJJ.

In Game 1, Ivica Zubac was fantastic offensively scoring 21 points on 15 shots and racked up a double-double per usual. He's slightly too cheap and Nikola Jokic is not a plus defender. He'll have his way here again.

Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 23rd
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 13th

Another playoff team that cut their rotation down to just eight and Jalen Pickett, one of the eight, played just five minutes. Jamal Murray had a lot stuff to like in this game including the 43 regulation minutes (48 total) and 45 DKP. Russell Westbrook played a boatload of minutes off of the bench and was one of the reasons the Nuggets ultimately won this game. We'll see if the minutes stick if Michael Porter plays well in Game 2. If he's playing 30 minutes or anywhere close, Westbrook is too cheap.

There is definitely a path for Christian Braun to be more impactful in DFS lineups here too, especially considering the minutes he played. He is typically more impactful peripherally as well. Michael Porter was a zero and if he struggles early again in Game 2, they'll simply go with Peyton Watson or Westbrook again.

Aaron Gordon was GREAT in Game 1 and is too cheap at this price if he's going to play this many minutes. They're back to using him as their backup center in the non-Jokic minutes too. Love him sub-6K.

Nikola Jokic is great if you end up getting to him, you'll be very happy. It's always a risk fading the guy with the highest raw ceiling on a two-game slate.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

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Mid

Value