Happy Monday May 5th, we have two second-round series kicking off as the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics battle in Boston and the Oklahoma City Thunder play host to the Denver Nuggets.

The stars are out as Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brunson are taking the floor in their most meaningful games of the year.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 5/5

  • Clean injury report
 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics

  • Total: 212.5
  • Spread: BOS -9

Knicks NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 5th
  • Pace (Playoffs): 3rd

The Knicks are quite the simple team to breakdown because they just rarely extend anyone outside their starting five. Jalen Brunson averaged 40 minutes/game and led the team with 1.26 FP/min. All the wings look pretty similar to one another as OG Anunoby has averaged the most minutes, Josh Hart has averaged the most FP/min, and Mikal Bridges is the cheapest of the three.

Can a better version of Karl-Anthony Towns stand up for the Knicks? He had just 1.08 FP/min and posted a 21% USG compared to a near 30% USG player during the regular season. With the Celtics running a bunch of double-big lineups, we could also see a little extra Mitchell Robinson here. He has a crazy ceiling/floor discrepancy, but the ceiling last round was a 13-point double-double and he's sub-4K.

Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 2nd
  • Pace (Playoffs): 15th

We only had ONE game against the Magic where Boston had their full roster and it was Game 1 in which Jrue Holiday played 33 minutes and was pacing for nearly 35 but lost over a minute to garbage time. We should see Payton Pritchard play into the 20s but he has not looked great this postseason. He is the cheapest price he's been on DK. Derrick White is very safe if you want to go there with a fully healthy Boston team.

It's very encouraging to see Jaylen Brown not showing up on the injury report with the knee as he's had six days off since Boston completed the sweep. This price is incredibly interesting, too, on DK at just $7,000. That's the cheapest it's been all year.

Jayson Tatum's final three games of the Orlando series: 64.5 DKP - 67 DKP - 55.75 DKP. Yeah, he's good.

With Holiday back, we'll see Al Horford shift back to the bench and I don't love the 5K price point. Uhhhhhhhhhh..Kristaps Porzingis at $6,300 is a choice. The Knicks have nothing for Zinger and we saw that during the regular season.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Total: 225.5
  • Spread: OKC -9.5

Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 11th
  • Pace (Playoffs): 11th

The Nuggets are eerily similar to the New York Knicks because they just simply don't play many players off their bench. Russell Westbrook is truly the only player off the bench that will sniff 20 minutes. Jamal Murray has a long track record of playoff success and was good in the opening series, but the amount of elite defenders he'll face here is a nightmare. I actually really like Russell Westbrook here and the 26% USG in the opening series.

This is an important series for Christian Braun because if Murray is hounded like expected, Braun's number could be called upon a lot more offensively. In three of the last four games he's put up 36+ DKP against the Clippers and is going to play 40 minutes. It's hard to imagine Michael Porter being much better than he's been because his shoulder is hurt so badly. He's a last piece in for me.

Aaron Gordon has looked better and better as the Clippers series went on putting up 30+ DKP in four straight games and has been quite aggressive offensively taking 16 shots in back-to-back outings. He posted a USG of 20% or better in the final three games. Nikola Jokic is elite. Always.

Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 1st
  • Pace (Playoffs): 1st

The Thunder continue to run a nine-man rotation led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA had a 33.7% USG and averaged 1.35 FP/min in the opening round. He's as good as a spend up as it can get on this slate. Alex Caruso has been SO good off of the Thunder bench at 4K as he scored 23+ DKP in the final three games of the opening series. Cason Wallace is another guard the Thunder will potentially give 20+ minutes.

I like the Luguentz Dort price point, but he has such a wide range of outcomes you can only list him as a GPP play. Isaiah Joe will play teens minutes and can make a bunch of shots, but probably not enough to make him a viable play unless you're playing multiple lineups.

The price is finally dropping and I love that because I think it's incredibly solid and reasonable, especially if we get opening round JDub, aka Jalen Williams. He put up 36+ DKP in all four games of the Memphis series and was over 40 in three of them. Chet Holmgren is in the exact same boat and is even CHEAPER than Holmgren. It might be worth playing both if not playing SGA or pairing the lower-owned one with SGA as well.

After watching the opening series, it's hard to imagine Isaiah Hartenstein getting much ownership but there's definitely a chance he's extended because they need the big body against Nikola Jokic. That's only a risk I'm willing to take a chance on in GPPs.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value