NBA DFS Picks & Playbook For Today: 2024 Playoffs, May 1st
As the NBA playoffs continue to heat up, today's main slate showcases two electrifying matchups set to captivate both fans and fantasy basketball enthusiasts alike. With stakes higher than ever and every possession holding the potential to swing the tide of a series, the intensity on the hardwood is palpable, and so are our NBA DFS picks.
As DFS managers, navigating this landscape requires keen insight into player form, team dynamics, and strategic matchups. From perennial powerhouses to rising underdogs, tonight's slate promises a thrilling spectacle of athleticism, skill, and drama.
So, buckle up as we delve into the matchups and unearth the hidden gems that could propel your DFS lineups to victory on this pivotal night in the NBA postseason.
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Heat vs. Celtics DFS
Total: 200.5
Spread: BOS -14
NBA Injury Report Today, 5/1
Heat NBA DFS Injuries
- Jimmy Butler - OUT
- Terry Rozier - OUT
- Josh Richardson - OUT
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. - OUT
Celtics NBA DFS Injuries
- Kristaps Porzingis - OUT
- Luke Kornet - OUT
Miami Heat NBA DFS Breakdown
What will the Heat rotation look like tonight now that Jaime Jaquez is ruled out? The likely scenario is Haywood Highsmith or Delon Wright slide into the starting lineup. The Heat are down three starters and Duncan Robinson is extremely limited.
What we do know: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Caleb Martin are going to play as many minutes as they can handle. Likely over 40. Everything else is a crapshoot.
Delon Wright, whether starting or not, will likely play somewhere in the mid-20’s to low-30’s minutes and has a very low floor because he’s not a high-volume offensive player. When he makes shots, he has a very solid ceiling.
Haywood Highsmith is very solid and there’s a high probability that he approaches 30 minutes again. He’s another low-floor player, but he is VERY active defensively and can knock down the three ball.
The primary question marks are Nikola Jovic and Patty Mills. Jovic was basically benched in Game 4 after playing 25+ minutes in four straight games, including over 30 in Game 3. Will Jaquez’s absence get him back to that or has Erik Spolstra found lineups he likes better than the ones that have Jovic included. Mills played 22 minutes and 17 straight in the second half, basically when JJJ left.
- Top Play(s): Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin, Delon Wright (starting)
- Secondary Play(s): Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic (GPPs)
- Punt(s): Patty Mills
Boston Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown
So obviously things have changed for Boston as Kristaps Porzingis will miss this game and beyond with a right soleus strain. That sigh of relief you heard was all of Boston that it wasn’t his Achilles.
Without Porzingis in the lineup, there’s two guys above the rest in terms of usage and FP/min. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum has a 34% USG and averages 1.4 FP/min without Zinger. Brown’s at a 31% USG and 1.2 FP/min.
After that, the likes of Derrick White, Al Horford, and Jrue Holiday are solid options. What happens with the rest of the Boston rotation is interesting. I assume Luke Kornet operates as the backup center because he played six minutes in the second half of Game 5. I’m not sure how much double-big they run, but that is something Boston has deployed that lineup for 24 minutes this postseason.
Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser are the top two members of the Boston Celtics bench that will actually play minutes, but every Boston starter (including Horford here) played at least 20 minutes in the second half, so they’d have to get their work done early or get run in a blowout.
- Top Play(s): Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Al Horford
- Secondary Play(s): Jrue Holiday, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard
- Punt(s): None
Mavericks vs. Clippers DFS
Total: 209.5
Spread: LAC +3
NBA Injury Report Today, 5/1
Mavericks NBA DFS Injuries
- Luka Doncic - PROB
- Tim Hardaway Jr. - OUT
Clippers NBA DFS Injuries
- Kawhi Leonard - OUT
Dallas Mavericks NBA DFS Breakdown
The Mavericks have a core three guys that are going to play 40 minutes and then everyone else is going to fill in the gaps. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and PJ Washington are those three. Obviously, Doncic and Irving are head and shoulders the best two plays from the Mavs here. Washington is someone I’m OK landing on, too.
With Tim Hardaway Jr. out, we should see Derrick Jones Jr.’s minutes solidified as they’ve been from Game 2 on. He’s been pretty productive when extended in this series.
The center room for Dallas has been, well, messy. Daniel Gafford starts but hasn’t been effective. Maxi Kleber comes off the bench but has basically closed every game this series. Dereck Lively II has played 15-to-21 minutes in every game this series and sits at 1 FP/min. Lively is my favorite option of the three.
- Top Play(s): Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving
- Secondary Play(s): P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Dereck Lively II
- Punt(s): None
Los Angeles Clippers NBA DFS Breakdown
The Clippers are the most interesting team of the day and my personal favorite to stack. Without Kawhi Leonard, there’s a lot to like. They only played eight games in Game 4 and Mason Plumlee is in the low-teens as the backup center.
Without Leonard this year, including the postseason, James Harden and Paul George both average 1.28 FP/min. George has a 29.9% USG and Harden sits at 23.7%. They’re the top two plays with a bullet.
The rest of the rotation is interesting though. Other than Game 4, Ivica Zubac has been great in this series posting a 22.3% USG while averaging 1 FP/min. You can take a shot on Plumlee too, but there’s a chance he only plays 10 minutes like he did in Game 3.
The rest of the rotation is mostly all in play too. Outside of Amir Coffey. He has the lowest floor ever. Naturally, he’ll do great tonight because I said that. Anyways, it’s hard to imagine Norman Powell does literally nothing in 30 minutes again after watching him the entire regular season on this team.
Terance Mann has been great defensively against Luka Doncic and he’ll continue to be on the floor as long as he stays out of foul trouble to guard him. He’s also 7-for-14 from three this series, so if he continues to knock shots down, he has a ceiling. Russell Westbrook has NOT shot the ball well in any capacity, but if the shot falls, there’s value at just $5K on DraftKings.
- Top Play(s): Paul George, James Harden, Terance Mann
- Secondary Play(s): Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell, Russell Westbrook
- Punt(s): Mason Plumlee (large-field GPP)
Here's Today's NBA DFS DraftKings Preview Show!
Player News
Lonzo Ball (wrist) said he won’t need surgery.
Ball said he is excited for his “first normal offseason in awhile.” He has been plagued by numerous injuries but was able to play 35 games during the 2024-25 season after not playing at all during the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. Ball was sidelined for all of March and April, but since he won’t require any procedure during the offseason, he should be ready to go for training camp.
Josh Giddey said his hand injury will be a “non-issue” next season.
Giddey said his plan is simply to rest it. Prior to Wednesday’s play-in loss, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Giddey had a torn muscle in his right hand. He played through it and delivered 25 points and 10 rebounds in Chicago’s final game of the season. The injury shouldn’t be a factor in Giddey’s quest for a new contract this summer as he enters restricted free agency. There is a good chance that he remains with the Bulls. That would be great news for his fantasy value as he is coming off the best season of his career.
Devin Carter accounted for 10 points (3-of-5 FGs, 3-of-4 FTs), four rebounds, two assists, one steal and one three-pointer in 22 minutes in Wednesday’s loss to the Mavericks.
Carter’s rookie season ended on a positive note individually, as he reached double figures for the fourth time. Offseason shoulder surgery delayed his NBA debut until after the New Year, with Carter playing 36 regular-season games. While he was worth stashing in dynasty league drafts before this season began, the former Providence standout did not deserve a look in redraft leagues. That will likely remain the case next season, but the Kings need to make a decision regarding their head coaching position, as Doug Christie was only the interim. Add in the need for an experienced point guard, and Carter’s fantasy outlook isn’t great.
Keegan Murray recorded nine points (3-of-9 FGs, 1-of-2 FTs), six rebounds, two assists, one steal, two blocks and two three-pointers in 36 minutes in Wednesday’s loss to the Mavericks.
Murray recorded a complete stat line on Wednesday, but the impact was muted. That was a fitting end to the season for the Kings forward, whose fantasy value took a significant hit. The signing of DeMar DeRozan during free agency did Murray no favors, and that was also true for the addition of Zach LaVine just before the trade deadline. While he did approach his Yahoo! ADP (87) in nine-cat formats, Murray failed to crack the top-100 in eight-cat. Murray is extension eligible this summer, but the Kings have many questions to answer, including who the head coach will be and the future of lead executive Monte McNair. How that impacts Murray remains to be seen, but he’s worth selecting with a top-100 pick in drafts.
Domantas Sabonis tallied 11 points (5-of-13 FGs, 1-of-2 FTs), 13 rebounds, five assists and two steals in 37 minutes in Wednesday’s loss to the Mavericks.
It’s fitting that Sabonis would finish his season with a double-double, as he recorded 61 during the regular season. However, his impact was limited, with Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford combining to control the paint for most of Wednesday’s Play-In tournament matchup. Regarding fantasy value, Sabonis was a top-25 player in eight- and nine-cat formats for the season. However, his value took a significant hit after the trade deadline, with the De’Aaron Fox deal leaving the Kings with two high-scoring wings (Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan) and no legitimate point guard. How Sacramento addresses that decision during the offseason will impact Sabonis’ fantasy value in 2025-26.
DeMar DeRozan shot 13-of-28 from the field and 5-of-6 from the foul line in Wednesday’s loss to the Mavericks, tallying 33 points, seven rebounds, two assists, two steals and two three-pointers in 43 minutes.
DeRozan went out firing on Wednesday, shooting just under 50 percent from the field and finishing a blocked shot shy of a complete stat line. Like other key Kings players, his fantasy value took a hit after De’Aaron Fox was traded to San Antonio. The lack of a point guard who can set up others consistently proved problematic for the Kings, who now have some significant decisions to make this offseason. DeRozan can approach top-50 fantasy value, but the task gets much easier when on the court with a legitimate lead guard.