The Dallas Mavericks made Game 2 more entertaining, but the Boston Celtics came out with another victory. Jrue Holiday was a large reason why the Celtics were successful, and the first-year Celtic is making his case for a Finals MVP – which would put him in a select group of Celtics legends.

As for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets and Player Props, we won too. The double-unit hammer on Dereck Lively II was an accurate prediction. He got off the hook in the fourth quarter and helped deliver over a unit to the bankroll. 

 

 

 

The Same Game Parlay was very close, and the data indicated it was the correct call, but Kyrie Irving did not hold up his end of the deal. Kleber attempted several threes but did not make one. Jayson Tatum once again was lackluster, as his under in points continues to be a bankroll builder. 

Irving played 41 minutes, attempted 18 field goals and only scored 16 points. Any game with more field goals than points is a bad offensive night. Two out of three is Meatloaf, but not a winner in the world of parlays. So close, yet so far for the parlay to be successful, but such is betting.

NBA Picks & Predictions, 6/12: Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3

Game 3 has some surprising lines; although the Celtics are up 2-0 in the series, they are underdogs tonight. The truth is the Celtics have not even played their best basketball in the Finals and have not lost a road playoff game in 2024. So, this is a bit surprising. 

Something feels like a trap and Dallas has not looked themselves throughout the Finals. The role players of the Mavericks should play better tonight and they have an opportunity to get momentum back on their side. With that in mind, the straight bets are avoided, and the player props dominate today’s NBA predictions.

 

 

 

Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction: Derrick Jones Jr. Over 9.5 Points (+100 on Bet365) *2 UNITS

Dereck Lively II has been mentioned as the ‘Bet of the Night’ in both Game 1 and 2. Tonight, a different Derrick gets the nod for NBA best bets ‘Bet of the Night’: Derrick Jones Jr. Jones Jr. has been an important part of the Dallas Mavericks 2023-24 success, and he will be needed for a win tonight.

The forward, once known as a high-flying dunker with good defensive skills, has committed to improving his skill set. For Dallas, he is needed as a spot-up scorer due to the attention Luka Doncic receives. Jones has become more of a ‘3 and D’ player for the Mavericks, making at least one three in four of his last five games and seven of his last 10.

Jones Jr. also scored 11 points in Game 2, despite little time with the basketball. He also did that despite not making one three-point attempt. He will make one three-point attempt, if not more tonight, in addition to free throws and hard-slamming jams. He has an advantage as a forward that receives little of the defense’s attention and could be due for another high scoring game.

A popular belief is that role players play better on their homecourt, and Jones Jr. has that advantage tonight. American Airlines Center will be a rowdy and loud energy, which should benefit the Mavericks and Jones Jr. Look for him to score well over 10 points tonight.

 

 

 

Mavericks vs Celtics SGP: Jones Jr. O0.5 Threes Made + Kleber O0.5 Threes Made + Gafford Double-Double (+3000 on Bet365) *0.5 UNIT

Fantasy Alarm has a beauty set up for the Same Game Parlay today! Once again it is a three-fold parlay, with three player props – all of which are Dallas Mavericks. American Airlines Center should be good to all three of these role players as the Mavericks look to avoid losing their third straight game.

Jones Jr. has already been discussed and for him to make over 0.5 threes is at -240. Yet despite those odds, this parlay still gets up to +3000. The expectation is for him to make 2 or more threes tonight and this was an easy add to get the sportsbook’s profit boost.

Although we successfully bet against Maxi Kleber making a three in the previous parlay, tonight is a different approach. In this series, he has played 35 minutes which has resulted in more fouls than combined stats. He has 2 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assists and 6 total fouls. That is embarrassing for any player from high school varsity upward, but especially a seven-foot scorer like Kleber.

Yet, head coach Jason Kidd has shown that he wants him in the lineup for his scoring ability. He attempted two (really three, but Kleber pulled a Kevin Durant and had his big toe on the three line) within his first five minutes of playing in Game 2. He will likely come in and attempt a few tonight, too.

The plan was obvious: set the screen and instead of rolling to the rim, Kleber kicked out. This led to a dish from a slashing Luka Doncic for relatively wide open three attempts from Kleber. They want him to get in a rhythm and gain confidence since his injury. After three days' rest and sleeping in his own bed at night, Kleber should sink his first three-point attempt. This parlay needs only one successful three for Kleber. One basket. Look for it to come within his first three minutes off the bench.

The previous two folds only need one basket to be successful; Daniel Gafford will have to work more than that to keep his end of the deal. Luckily, Gafford has been playing well throughout the playoffs.

Gafford has scored 10 or more points in six of his last eight games and that should not be a problem as he continues to work his pick-and-roll game with Doncic and Kyrie Irving. He has also had a few easy putbacks during this series, along with some free throws. He has no difficulty scoring with the Mavericks.

He is the best center in this series and although he shares reps with both Maxi Kleber and Derrick Lively II, he is the starter. He has been the more dominant force between the three and has outscored his backups throughout. Kleber and Lively II have a combined 6 points, while Gafford has 21. The points are not the issue of this bet – it becomes more if he can earn the 10 rebounds needed for the double-double. 

Gafford has not recorded 10 or more rebounds since Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunders in the Western Conference Semifinals. However, with Kristaps Porzingis clearly aggravating his injured calf in Game 2, the best rebounder the Celtics have becomes Jayson Tatum.

Look for him to give maximum effort, play his most minutes of the series and earn the double-double with great rebounding. Put a half-unit down on this to round out Game 3’s NBA picks and cheer on the big man all night!

Bet365 Sportsbook has a promo to receive a 50% profit boost for this parlay. It is highly recommended you apply it to the +3000 odds, which will give it over +4500 odds! Not too shabby for two baskets and a double-double.

 

 

 

Thank you for exploring my expert NBA predictions for today's Game 3! Be sure to visit Fantasy Alarm for additional insights on sports betting, comprehensive DFS analysis, NFL best ball cheat sheets and the most recent sports updates.