Happy Monday everyone, and welcome to the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Only eight teams remain in the 2023-24 season, and it’s mostly chalk. The only team, from either conference, outside of the top four to advance was the Dallas Mavericks, a five seed.

 

There was one game of round two that took place this weekend, the Minnesota Timberwolves went into Ball Arena and won game one against the Denver Nuggets. Now Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves look to sneak out another victory against the reigning champions. 

The New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers in what should be a thrilling round two Eastern Conference match. The buzz is alive in New York after their Knicks took down their neighboring city, the Philadelphia 76ers. Now a familiar playoff opponent is waiting for Tom Thibodeau and the New York Knicks. 

NBA Picks & Predictions: Monday, May 6

Today’s bets will look at both games, and find two great player props for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. The Bet of the Night is a nice plus odds parlay featuring both games with a small boost added to it. 

 

Parlay of the Day: New York Knicks ML + Denver Nuggets ML (+125 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

The first game of the evening is an old Eastern Conference rivalry renewed. If you were born in the eighties or prior, you probably remember the epic nineties playoff battles between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. During that decade these two teams met six times, more specifically 1993-2000 ( the 2000 playoffs are the 1999-2000 season). Three of those battles were in the Eastern Conference Finals too.

Gone are those days, and some of the players in tonight’s game weren’t even born when the Indiana Pacers beat the Knicks for their first (and only) NBA Finals, or when the Knicks beat the Pacers to go to their two finals of the nineties. However the fans do remember, and Madison Square Garden will be a loud and wild place tonight. 

The Pacers actually destroyed the Knicks in their most recent game on February tenth, 125-111. However some of the players were not on the team, and most certainly not accustomed to their teammates or the direction of Tom Thibodeau. The Pacers are a great offensive team and the Knicks are a great defensive team, it will be a battle of contrasting styles. Yet the Knicks can score too, and the Pacers defense isn’t near as good as the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The Knicks are six point favorites, but the spread seems too unpredictable for the first game of this series. The moneyline is juiced up but still the smarter angle as this game could be won by twelve points or one point. 

The Denver Nuggets just got metaphorically punched in the mouth by their division rival the Minnesota Timberwolves in game one. It was a close game until the fourth quarter, when Minnesota went on an eighteen to seven point run. Usually it is the Denver Nuggets pulling away in the last quarter of the game, but the Timberwolves had an excellent game plan.

They saved their timeouts so they could utilize them late in the fourth quarter to keep their big men refreshed. They also made a great effort to eliminate the easy buckets near the rim. Nikola Jokic was the only efficient scorer inside the paint, as the size of Minnesota limited Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray’s easy dunks and layups. This divisional rivalry is expected to go the distance, but Denver will need to win game two in order for that to happen. 

Nikola Jokic played several minutes, but Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. were the only two players to play at their consistent level. They have been the two best players for the Nuggets this playoff and they will need to have great games tonight for the Nuggets to win.

The Nuggets have an injured backcourt with Jamal Murray playing through a calf strain that has bothered him throughout the season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson also have sprained ankles, and those three are the guards that get the most playing time. Christian Braun does play sparingly but plays more of a forward than a guard. 

The pressure will be on the Nuggets front court to handle the size of the Timberwolves and produce points. The Nuggets are currently 5.5 point favorites tonight, and they could cover that. However a win is of utmost importance for the reigning champs whether they win by one or ten. Expect to see Gordon, Porter Jr., and Jokic to have dominating performances tonight and give the Nuggets a win.

 

NBA Props & Best Bets Today, 5/6

Pascal Siakam 7+ Rebounds - 2 Units (-200 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

Pascal Siakam started the playoffs hotter than any other player, but cooled down a bit in his last two games against the Milwaukee Bucks. However he is still a force for Head Coach Rick Carlisle and his teammates. 

The New York Knicks have a lengthy front court, and Myles Turner has converted his game to be an outside the perimeter center. This allows Siakam to fight for defensive rebounds and earn more offensive rebounds. Josh Hart is an excellent offensive rebounder for the Knicks, and Siakam will be on alert for him and Isaiah Hartenstein. 

Siakam averaged 6.3 rebounds per game in the regular season, but part of that was with former Toronto Raptors teammates Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes… both excellent rebounders. For the Pacers he has been the dominating presence in the paint, oftentimes leading the team with rebounds. He could be their leading rebounder in today’s game too.

Siakam’s rebounding line is currently set at 7.5 across multiple sportsbooks. Fantasy Alarm has dropped the hook, or put another way, moved his required rebounds from eight to seven. The reason being he had seven or more rebounds in five of the six games in round one. He should accomplish that again against a tough defensive team.

Rather than risk getting caught on the hook, we removed it. Also since the odds dip from -112 to -200 a double unit is suggested. This bet actually returns a full unit, as opposed to somewhere near .90 of a unit on the set rebounding line of 7.5… a larger profit. This is a smarter bet than relying on what the sportsbook has offered, and more profitable

Siakam has delivered on several tickets for Fantasy Alarm, and we are counting on him to do it again with a double-unit hammer.

 

NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 29.5 POINTS (-102 ON DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK)

The Denver Nuggets have the supposed MVP of the season (announced May eighth) and the Minnesota Timberwolves have the sixth man of the year, as well as the supposed Defensive Player of the Year. Naz Reid displayed why he won the sixth man of the year with a clutch fourth quarter performance, putting the Timberwolves ahead with great scoring. 

Rudy Gobert had a good defensive game, controlling the paint and making it difficult for Denver Nuggets players to score… that aren’t named Nikola Jokic.

In game one Jokic scored thirty-two points on eleven of twenty-five field goals. Despite the tough field goal percentage he had a great game. He was looking to establish teammates first then went on a scoring spree in the first half when he realized they were having difficulty offensively. He had a second half highlight by putting Rudy Gobert in a blender with his amazing footwork and that will likely continue tonight. He owns Gobert in their one-on-one matches.

This is the most important game of Nikola Jokic’s young career. The Nuggets didn’t lose a single game one in their championship run last year. They now find themselves down one against a well put together and coached team. This is when MVPs rise above the rest though, and Nikola Jokic will do just that.

In four games against the Timberwolves this season Jokic averaged 33.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. Rudy Gobert may soon win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year Award, but he has no answer for Nikola Jokic who continues to outplay one of the best defenders of all-time. 

Do not be surprised if Jokic goes for thirty-five or more points tonight, and has fewer than his nine assists average. He will look to put the game in his hands through double teams, uncalled fouls, and hard physical defense. He is the best player of this decade and will need to play like it to even the series back up before heading to the Target Center in Minnesota. Look for an MVP performance from Nikola Jokic tonight, and put a unit on it too.

Thanks for reading my top NBA predictions for today! Remember to visit Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy sports and betting needs.

 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise