Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals was a display of how important Karl-Anthony Towns is to the Timberwolves success. Although he fouled out, he scored 25 points, oftentimes with consecutive threes. Every time the Mavericks attempted to gain momentum, Towns had an answer.

 

 

 

This led to a rare unsuccessful NBA best bets Bet of the Night. However, the +850 Same Game Parlay was successful. Luka had a triple double, which covered the 10+ rebounds on the ticket as well. He had a push for points late in the fourth quarter with a potential four point play, and attempted three free throws with under two minutes, but he did not score more than 30 points.

This allowed for the highest odds playoff ticket to cash, and in doing so brought the playoff unit count to +16.76!

NBA Picks & Predictions, 5/30: Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 5

The Dallas Mavericks now take to the road and will be playing a ferocious Minnesota Timberwolves team with momentum on their side. Although the Target Center has proven to be anything but a fortress, the fans will be loud and doing their part tonight. 

The question then becomes will the Minnesota Timberwolves star players show up again? Can they win their fourth elimination game of the 2024 playoffs? That is what this game will come down to; Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are going to do their thing, and Dereck Lively II is expected back. He is officially listed as questionable and was on the sidelines for game 4. 

With it being difficult to predict who will win this game tonight, today’s NBA predictions Bet of the Night focuses on a star player’s proposition.

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Prediction: Anthony Edwards U28.5 Points (-120 on Bet365)

Anthony Edwards is the hottest name in basketball right now. Everyone loves him, including the sportsbooks. His point line is set at 28.5, and has been there or 27.5 for every game of this series. His point total is constantly bet on the over, but the smart money is on the under, and here is why.

He has scored 29 points just once in his last seven games, his most recent. He looks entirely exhausted at times, and he is being double-teamed often. He is also becoming more of a facilitator for the Timberwolves. He has seven or more assists in his last five games, and he is part of the reason Karl Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert have had high offensive production.

Edwards played 40 minutes in game 4 and was on oxygen during games 1 and 2 at the Target Center. He also mentioned that he hasn’t been swept in an NBA Series, implying that he was going to play with max effort to prevent the sweep from happening. Will he be able to do it another night? This NBA picks column has won its last two bets on Edwards’ under on his point total; look for the third time to happen tonight.

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks SGP: Edwards O8.5 Assists & Lively II O7.5 Rebounds (+663 on ESPN Bet) *0.5 UNITS

The Same Game Parlay of two days ago was an epic win, +850 tickets do not cash everyday… or every week. Now, the focus becomes on winning two in a row, and to do that a two-fold parlay is set for today’s game. Both individual props have been teased up too for wonderful +663 odds.

Although we are betting on Edwards points to be below 29 tonight, we are teasing his assists line up in this Same Game Parlay. He has recorded seven or more assists in five straight games, and has recorded over 8.5 in his last two. He has a number of teammates that can get hot at any moment and he draws double teams then dishes out to the open person. 

The Timberwolves made 39 of 74 field goals in game 4, which is 52.7% – pretty good. If they are making over 50% of their field goals tonight, the assists should come easy for Edwards. We mentioned that we expect him to pass more and score less in the Bet of the Night, and this teased up line reflects that. Edwards could have a double-double tonight, particularly if Karl Anthony Towns has another great scoring game.

Dereck Lively II is listed as questionable, but the Mavericks are a different team without him. Lively II is the best Dallas rookie since Jalen Brunson, and at times it is easy to forget that he is a rookie. The Mavericks looked different without him, and Max Kleber was being yelled at by Luka Doncic, and didn’t look fluid out there.

Daniel Gafford played 31 minutes earning 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks, but he looked tired and not as great defensively in the second half. Lively II brings a young energy to the lineup and plays with maximum effort. Gafford is the starter, but Lively II is the star on the rise, and the Mavericks have a much better chance to close out the series if he plays tonight.

Prior to getting injured Lively II had rebounding games of 9, 11, 15, 10. The sportsbooks seem to anticipate a lower minute count, and that doesn’t make sense, as it was not a leg or core muscle injury. Due to this his rebounding line has dropped to a disrespectful 6.5, and Fantasy Alarm NBA best bets took full advantage by teasing it up. 

In the chance he does not play, Edwards’ assists line is at positive odds, and this bet still has great odds. Due to half a unit being placed, as long as one of these bets are successful, it will be another profitable day. If Lively II is declared a full go, his rebounding line will likely move up. It could be a good idea to build a ladder on him before that declaration.

 

 

 

I appreciate you taking the time to go through my expert NBA predictions for Game 5 today. Remember to visit Fantasy Alarm for further advice on sports betting, in-depth DFS analysis, NFL best ball cheat sheets, and the most current sports news.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise