The Indiana Pacers gave their best effort, but they fell short. The Boston Celtics are headed back to the NBA Finals, and seeking their second NBA title in 37 years. Jaylen Brown was named the Eastern Conference Finals MVP as the Celtics won another tightly contested contest. The 2023-24 Celtics are an all-time great team, and that is what great teams do.

 

 

 

Despite weird first half minute usage, T.J. McConnell came through for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets and Player Props. Him scoring 15 points got us off the hook again, but the Same Game Parlay was not successful. Despite only scoring 8 points, Myles Turner made two three-point field goals, but the total did not reach 221 points. Even the teased down points were not enough, as defensive play ruled the day.

Not to worry as yesterday finished as a push, or with one win and one loss. The win was at even odds so no profit, nor loss, was given yesterday. Despite being just the eighth game of the Conference Finals, tonight could be the last game. That would leave 10 days of recovery for the players, and 10 painful days without NBA basketball for fans and bettors.

NBA Picks & Predictions, 5/28: Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 4

The Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center in a potential close out game. If the Dallas Mavericks win today, it will be the first time both Conference Finals would end in a 4-0 sweep. Kyrie Irving is also a perfect 14-0 in close out games, one of the most clutch statistics in 77 years of NBA games and data.

To move to 15-0, Kyrie and the Mavericks will have to bring their best effort against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Which is exactly what should be expected from the team with all the momentum in today’s NBA predictions.

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Prediction - Game 4: Dallas -2.5 (+100 on ESPN Bet)

The Dallas Mavericks are slight favorites to win Game 4 at home, currently -1.5 on the spread. The first of my NBA best bets today has been teased up one point in order to get the bet to even odds. After all, what is one point difference in a potential blowout victory?

Two of the three games of this series have been close to the last buzzer. Game 3 was close until the last three minutes, when Dallas pulled away. Game 3 was in Dallas, and so is Game 4. Losing Game 3 was a crushing blow for the Timberwolves, who do not have the championship presence to overcome such a mentally devastating loss. 

The question then becomes do they have enough left in the tank to extend the series one more game? The answer is no, and for several reasons. First and foremost, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been mentally exhausted and physically fatigued since their seven game series with the Denver Nuggets. Much praise was given to the Timberwolves display of physicality, but the other side of the tortilla reveals a burnout reality.

The Dallas Mavericks have been taking care of business on the front court, and scoring with their backcourt. It is truly a remarkable difference from January 2023. The team has several new starters and a defensive look not seen since 2011 when Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, and Tyson Chandler led an underrated defense. 

The 2011 Mavericks had a dynamic offensive duo that has not been given the championship credit they deserve. Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry were top ten scorers at the end of their career, and both were the offensive force behind the Mavericks 2011 championship season. Doncic and Irving are striving to bring the same results that Nowitzki and Terry were able to: hoisting the Larry O’ Brien trophy.

It starts with a win tonight, and for that to happen, the Mavericks simply need to keep doing what they have been. Stay close throughout the game, save timeouts to be fresh in the fourth quarter, then pull away in the last five minutes of the game. 

If the Mavericks start off with more points than usual, this game could be over at halftime. Look for Doncic to put the game in his hands with high activity and a majority of the time with the ball in his hands… Perhaps even a little magic.

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks SGP: Luka Doncic U30.5 Points, 10+ Rebounds & To Record A Triple-Double (+850 on Bet365)

‘Mama, here come that man.’ An expression regarded for the late, great Kobe Bryant can be applied to Luka Doncic in the third decade of the 21st century. Luka has been a monster in breaking opposing fans' hearts in close out games, and lets the opposing team know it too.

Kyrie Irving may have the best close out record of all-time, but Doncic is the one that puts fear into players, coaching staffs, and fanbases. Teams facing Doncic in a close out game have that middle-school feeling when you get in trouble for messing around at school. Getting detention was nothing, it was the anticipation of knowing what was coming once your parents found out.

The Timberwolves have been messing around with this series, and now they are about to find out. A chance to be sent home with a message they don’t want to deliver. ‘That man’ is coming tonight, and every Timberwolves player, coach, and fan knows it.

This bet was going to combine the moneyline and triple-double, but the odds were less than half of this build. The triple-double is still there, but the under 30.5 points added gave this bet +800 odds, drastically more than the triple-double paired with the money line.

Although most peculiar, 10+ rebounds added +50 more to the odds of this bet, while over 9.5 added nothing. For a triple-double to be achieved, Doncic must grab 10 or more rebounds. This is another example of computers being flawed, and if the sportsbooks are going to give you ‘free money’ it would be wise to take it. Getting an extra half a unit put on for the same result to be needed is like getting two candies from the vending machine when you paid for one… A nice bonus.

Granted, under 30.5 points for the leading scorer of the 2023-24 season is a risk, but if he dishes out 10 or more assists, then his points will more than likely take a hit. This is a logical bet on that prediction, and Luka will look to get Kyrie and others involved. Daniel Gafford receives several assists from Doncic via the pick-n-roll lob, and he will play more minutes with Lively II out. 

Same Game Parlays are difficult to achieve but usually have outstanding payouts. Despite only one of seven SGPs being successful in our Conference Finals NBA picks, should this ticket cash, it would put the parlay count over two units' profit! Let’s cheer on Luka Doncic to deliver some magic tonight.

 

 

 

Thank you for taking the time to review my expert NBA predictions for Game 4 today! Make sure to visit Fantasy Alarm for additional advice on sports betting, comprehensive DFS analysis, cheat sheets for NFL best ball, and the most up-to-date sports news.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise