NBA Best Bets Today, 3/7: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Friday
Zion Williamson made a strong push near the end of the fourth quarter, but he ultimately came up a short for his points line. That was exactly what we predicted in yesterday’s NBA picks. Unfortunately, the straight bets were not as successful. The Indiana Pacers lost to the Atlanta Hawks and were unable to cover the -3-point spread.
The Orlando Magic lost as well, ruining the Same Game Parlay as they were unable to cover a teased-down spread. One correct prediction but only -0.61 units were lost, and we look to three winning angles for our NBA best bets today.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/7
There are eight games today, two of which are nationally televised on ESPN.
The Bet of the Night with our NBA best bets today comes from the second marquee match on ESPN and features the Phoenix Suns versus the Denver Nuggets.
Suns vs. Nuggets Prediction: Porter Jr. O7.5 Rebounds (+115 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The first player prop is a plus odd prop with great data backing it up. Fantasy Alarm has been all over Michael Porter and he is one of the most mentioned players in this column. Why the sportsbooks are scared to push up Porter Jr.’s line, we don’t know. But we are planning on taking advantage of it.
Porter has recorded eight or more rebounds in all but one game since the All-Star break. Oftentimes it's a double-digit amount and as Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook, and Christian Braun keep putting up high point totals, Porter is willing to go do the dirty work of earning hard rebounds.
The Phoenix Suns generally play the Denver Nuggets tough, and Kevin Durant along with Devin Booker will attempt several field goals to keep pace with the Association’s third highest scoring offense. This should lead to a high pace match, with several missed field goals and rebounding opportunities for Porter.
Porter averages 6.9 rebounds per game but as mentioned his post All-Star numbers are great. He has recorded; 11, 8, 11, 10, 9, 5, 12. With three ball dominant players in Nikola Jokic, Murray, and Westbrook, Porter has been taking advantage of rebounds to earn points.
Aaron Gordon has been battling through injuries, and Porter remains the Nuggets most consistent player, he has missed just three games this season. He’s also averaging 33.4 minutes per game. Look for him to earn over 7.5 rebounds against a middle of the pack rebounding team, put a unit on the plus odd proposition.
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Prediction: Portland ML (+125 on Bet365)
The Portland Trail Blazers are essentially playing against the Oklahoma City Thunder’s second team. The Thunder have every starter listed as out or day-to-day; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Cason Wallace are listed as out today. Chet Holmbren is listed as day-to-day. That is literally their top six players, and they are playing a much improved Portland team.
Head Coach Chauncy Billups has his young team finally making the corner of progression. The Trail Blazers are currently 4.0 games behind the Dallas Mavericks for tenth in the Western Conference. They will be without a few players but their young back court of Anfernee Simmons, Toumanni Camara, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe are all healthy.
Portland has won five of their last ten matches, and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to overtime. It took the Boston Celtics having a record scoring night to overcome them as well. The Trailblazers are playing the top three records in three of their last four matches and holding their own. It is without question the toughest four game stretch for any team in the NBA. And although they are still +2.5 underdogs, the prediction is for them to give Oklahoma the business.
Portland has scored 118 or more points in each of their last five matches and recently had a 144-point match. Their offense is playing well, and the Thunder are resting their players for the upcoming playoffs. Put a unit on the fast-paced Trail Blazers to earn a victory against the Thunder’s second unit.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/7
Michael Porter is one of the most mentioned players in this NBA best bets column, but the most mentioned player is Scott Wayne Barnes Jr., better known as Scottie Barnes.
Jazz vs. Raptors Prediction: Barnes O13.5 Assists & Rebounds (-115 on Bet365)
The issue with Barnes is figuring out which of the big three statistics (points, rebounds, assists) he is going to excel at. A true jack of all trades, Barnes is the definition of a baller who will do whatever the team needs to win. Those needs change on a game to game basis too, and tonight Barnes will need to do everything as three fellow starters, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl, are out.
Although listed as power forward Barnes is a bit of everything, and on certain fantasy apps he is listed as a G/F, which seems most appropriate. Barnes not only has three starters out, two of his back ups, Jonathan Mogbo and Ochai Agbaji, are out, and Chris Boucher is listed as day-to-day. Barnes has shown this is not a big deal, he averages 34.5 minutes per game, and more playing time is not an issue for someone pursuing an All-NBA team selection.
He averages 19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. In a night he will have to do everything, we pair his stats for the first time this season. Barnes will likely cover the 19.5 point line, but his scoring is up and down too much to be dependent. With that in mind a look at his assists and rebounds is suggested.
As mentioned Barnes earned 13 rebounds in his most recent match, and this line is set at 13.5. He could earn 14 rebounds with both Poeltl, Mogbo, Agbaji, and Barrett all out. He will be depended on to be the leading rebounder for his team and the expectation is for him to have several rebounds.
Barnes assists are anywhere from three to seven in his last nine games played, but he always gets a few and sometimes several. The expectation is for them to be higher as Barens will likely play over forty minutes, and at times be too tired to create a field goal for himself.
Barnes has cleared this prop in four of his last nine matches, and has ample opportunity against the second worst record in the Association. The Utah Jazz allow 119.8 points per game and there will be several assist opportunities for Barnes. Put a unit on him to cover this NBA best bet today.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.