NBA Best Bets Today, 1/28: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Tuesday
Scottie Barnes earned a double-double and once again delivered for Fantasy Alarm’s NBA best bets. Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves did not deliver. Minnesota managed just 100 points and Edwards just four assists as he led the team in points.
Most disappointing of all was the Denver Nuggets meltdown. What we thought was a for sure win, as double-digit odd favorites, turned out to be a loss. Causing two bets two fail, the plan to get positive value backfired, as the Miami Heat won in double overtime, and Christian Braun tied his career high in points.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 1/28
There are only four games, and several teams are playing in the second of back-to-back games.
There are two cross conference matches, and the bet of the night for our NBA best bets comes on a parlay from those games.
NBA Parlay Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers & Houston Rockets ML (+120 on Bet365) *Bet of the Night
The Philadelphia 76ers host the Los Angeles Lakers at the Wells Fargo Center, and the Atlanta Hawks host the Houston Rockets at State Farm Arena. The Western Conference teams are favorites on the road, and a two fold parlay is suggested for each.
Paul George, Joel Embiid, Anthony Drummond, Caleb Martin, and KJ Martin are all out tonight. The Philadelphia 76ers will be dependent on Tyrese Maxey and Kyle Lowry to do basically everything offensively. Philadelphia could also be on their fourth string center should Guerschon Yabusele be unable to play.
The Los Angeles Lakers are playing in the second of back-to-back games but should be able to score against the 76ers second unit. The Houston Rockets are on a roll as one of the best teams in the Association, and are coming off of an impressive win against the Boston Celtics. They now have an opportunity to carry their momentum against an unimpressive Hawks team.
The Hawks have lost five in a row, while the Rockets have won three in a row. Atlanta has a -2.7 point differential, while Houston has +5.8. The Rockets are in second of the Western Conference, the Hawks are in ninth of the Eastern Conference. Houston has the better coaching, the better roster, and should take care of the Hawks on the road.
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Prediction: DeAndre Ayton Under 10.5 Rebounds (-110 on Bet365)
The Milwaukee Bucks are on the road at the Moda Center against the Portland Trail Blazers. MIlwaukee was in a thrilling match against the Utah Jazz yesterday, in a game they had control of. Portland has played better but still not an elite team. Part of the inconsistency is the play of their center.
DeAndre Ayton is averaging 10.2 rebounds per game this season but has less than 11 in three of his most recent five matches. He is questionable tonight and has not played the Trail Blazers last three matches. The expectation is for him to play but Milwaukee has a couple great rebounders.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez are going to be threats to Ayton, but so will Damian Lillard. Lillard has two triple-doubles in two of his last three matches, and has gone over his season average (4.7) in six of his last seven matches. He is also playing at the Rose Garden, a spot more than familiar for Lillard.
If Ayton is playing without limitations he should earn around thirty minutes tonight. He could be playing against all three of Milwaukee’s great rebounders during those thirty minutes. If he is playing with a minute count, it increases the odds of our prediction being successful. Put a unit on Ayton to record 10 or less rebounds tonight.
NBA Player Props & Other Picks Today, 1/28
With only four games, the margins are tight as the sportsbooks await news from each team.
With that in mind, a bold prediction presents itself to cap off our NBA best bets today.
Lakers vs. 76ers Prediction: Los Angeles -14.5 (+400 on DraftKings)
The Lakers spread is currently -4 on Draftkings and they should cover that with ease. The question then becomes how much should it be teased up? In this scenario it is recommended a full 10.5 points.
The Philadelphia 76ers are an embarrassment to those that like to rise to the moment. They are seeking their third win a row, and could really make a season changing statement with a win against the Lakers. Instead they are retreating to their bench with a white flag being waved more than an 18th century boat sails on a windy day.
The last time the 76ers did this they lost by 35 points. The Lakers are seeking their fifth win in a row and suddenly are in the top of the Western Conference. They are only 1.0 game behind the Denver Nuggets for fourth. Look for the Lakers to play in an offensive rhythm against a terrible team and cover the alternate spread.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.