We almost had a complete sweep last night, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Haliburton fell one successful field goal short of the line… that appears to be a theme lately. Kawhi Leonard won his prop due to injury, which is always a possibility when betting. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets dislikes injuries, but never apologizes for winning. 

 

 

 

There are nine games tonight in the Association, with two on ESPN in front of a national audience. There are bets on both of those games too. The first features a rematch of the 2023 NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat with a 7:30 PM ET tip-off. There is a SGPx that utilizes a boost from DraftKings in this match.

The second match takes place in California as the Los Angeles Lakers play the Sacramento Kings with a 10:00 PM ET start time. There will be a double unit straight bet as a wager in this match. 

My NBA best bets ‘Bet of the Night’ comes from the Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks. It features a double-unit wager on a player that has been mentioned only once in this column, and he has a chance to do something very special tonight. Let's get that analysis started with my NBA best bets today!

Expert NBA Best Bet & Pick Today, 3/13

Daniel Gafford Player Props: Over 9.5 Points (-125 on BetMGM) *2 UNITS

When reviewing good angles for tonight’s games, I found something interesting. Attacking Golden State’s front court has been a consistent and profitable bet, so I went to Dallas Mavericks front court players. 

Daniel Gafford was initially not earning many minutes after being traded from the Washington Wizards to the Dallas Mavericks. However, he has played over twenty-one minutes in the last four games, and here is the interesting find.

During those last four games Gafford has attempted twenty-eight field goal attempts and has made twenty-eight field goal attempts – THAT IS 100%! He has not missed, perfect, flawless, no errors. He needs only seven more successful field goal attempts to tie Wilt Chamberlain’s record set in 1967, over fifty years ago. 

In Gafford’s last ten games, if he has played twenty or more minutes he has cleared this line with at least two points to spare. The Warriors front court of Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney and Draymond Green is simply not going to have the size or athleticism to compete with Gafford when Luka Doncic and he begin working the pick and roll game. 

The Warriors are a middle of the road defense against centers, and they will be without their leader in Steph Curry. The Mavericks should keep things rolling in this battle of teams currently in the play-in.

 

 

 

NBA Predictions Today, 3/13

Lakers vs. Kings Prediction: Los Angeles Money Line (-130 on BetMGM) *2 UNITS

The Los Angeles Lakers travel upstate and play the Sacramento Kings tonight. The Kings are playing in the second of back-to-back games after destroying the Milwaukee Bucks last night. The Lakers have not left California since February 25, almost three weeks of essentially not traveling. They should be well rested for this pivotal match up.

Both teams are currently in the play-in as Sacramento is the seventh seed and Los Angeles the ninth seed. The Kings enjoy a two game lead over the Lakers, but if the Lakers win they would pull themselves to within one game of the seventh seed. The difference in being either the seventh or eighth seed and the ninth or tenth seed is huge. If you are in ninth or tenth you must win two games to make the playoffs. If you are the seventh or eighth seed you simply need to win one game. Expect a good game tonight. 

The point differential is in favor of Sacramento by +1.2 points, which really isn’t much. The Lakers are favorites in this game and the odds on the moneyline keep going down as money pours in on the Lakers. That could be a bit skewed due to so many Lakers fans in the country, but Los Angeles has the advantage. 

The Kings are 5-5 in the second of back-to-back games and will have their hands full against LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If this game is close the Lakers have another advantage in the fact they go to the free throw line much more than the Kings. The Lakers have attempted 1,575 free throws this season, while the Kings have attempted only 1,347… that is 228 more free throw attempts. 

It’s no secret the NBA media (and likely the NBA front office) want to make sure the Lakers are in the playoffs. The free throw disparity is another reason the Lakers money line is being placed with a double unit wager.

 

 

 

NBA Parlay Today: Nuggets vs. Heat Same Game Parlay Extra

Denver Money Line & Nicola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds + New Orleans Pelicans Money Line (+393 on DraftKings) *0.5 UNIT

DraftKings offers an option to have a ‘Same Game Parlay Extra’, or ‘SGPx’, which is the ability to make a Same Game Parlay and add another independent wager to it. There is almost always a daily boost for this, and it is listed as ‘JJ PROFIT SPLASH’ today under the Rewards tab. Once you opt-in you will be credited with a fifty percent profit boost to use on a SGPx. 

For this boost, Fantasy Alarm is rolling with the hottest team since the All-Star break, the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic has all but cemented his third regular season MVP and is playing like the best player of the decade… which he is. He is averaging 12.3 rebounds per season and playing against one of the smallest centers in the Association tonight, Bam Adebayo. 

Adebayo is an excellent center, and the words “Bam Adebayo is the best American born center in the league”, have been used in this column. However even the best USA born center is not on the same level as centers from around the world, much less the best center in the game. The required thirteen rebounds could come before the fourth quarter. 

The Denver Nuggets have publicly stated, many times, they are coming for the number one seed in the Western Conference… and they are playing like it. Three teams are within 0.5 games of first place in the conference and they are all from the Northwest Division. The Nuggets cannot take their foot off the pedal and must win their first of four road games.

The New Orleans Pelicans are a Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets favorites. They were mentioned in their opening game with a three-unit wager and have quietly been one of the best teams in the league. They have the longest winning streak in the NBA (four wins) and are hosting the banged up Cleveland Cavaliers at The Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans are seven-point favorites, and it appears to be one of safest bets to combine with the same game parlay in order to receive the boost. 

If this bet is successful, even at half a unit, it would yield almost two units in profit.

Thanks for reading my NBA best bets today. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise