NBA Best Bets & Player Props January 2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes on the Boston Celtics
What a day yesterday, bringing in over 1.7 units for profit behind another Meat Loaf moment. Jalen Duren is an amazing rebounder and he slipped by the hook with a double unit win. There are six games tonight, and only the Charlotte Hornets are playing the second of back-to-back games. The bet of the night features a player who has been playing exceptionally well over the past two weeks.
Franz Wagner and the Orlando Magic play the first of back-to-back nights against the Golden State Warriors. Jonas Valanciunas is a column favorite and he has a plus-money prop tonight versus the Brooklyn Nets. There is also a bet on what is the game of the night, Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder, two of the top five teams in the Association meet on the hardwood. Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, one of the highest scorers of December, has a favorable prop near even odds to round the night of betting.
NBA Bet of the Night
Franz Wagner OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-125 at DraftKings)
The Orlando Magic continue their road tour and play against the Golden State Warriors tonight with a 10:00 PM ET tip-off. The Warriors are still going through their roster to figure out the best rotation, and truly are not the same team without Draymond Green. Golden State has lost three in a row, and the once-mighty dynasty is currently ranked in the bottom five of the Western Conference.
Franz Wagner has been a rebounding machine as of late, with six or more rebounds in seven of his last eight games. He averages six per game and the Warriors are 12 in rebounds allowed to opposing teams, but have allowed 53.4 in their last three games, and 53.0 at home. Wagner is also scoring and being aggressive in defensive rebounding. There should be several shots from the Splash Brothers which could lead to long rebounds, favoring Wagner’s over on this prop. Trust the twenty-two-year-old to outhustle the older Warriors.
NBA Prop Bets
Jonas Valanciunas UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)
Jonas Valanciunas is one of the most consistent rebounding line proposition bets, and he has been mentioned in here a few times. This will be his first appearance on the under of his rebound total though, as the New Orleans Pelicans host the Brooklyn Nets. He has the potential to be a rebounding machine and has more weight and experience than opposing center Nic Claxton. Both of their lines are set at 9.5 and both are the leading rebounder for their team. Jonas is also a top-ten rebounder on the season, but he has gone under in his last two games.
A large part of the dip is better rebounding from Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Even Herbert Jones is getting more rebounds, but most importantly Larry Nance is back and getting playing time (Valanciunas's backup). Nance has played over twenty-three minutes in the last two games, and this trend could continue as New Orleans plays the first of back-to-back games. The under at plus money with Valanciunas competition not only from Nic Claxton but his teammates makes this prop bet a great play.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points (-105 at BetMGM)
Shai Gligeous-Alexander (SGA) has been a scoring machine. He is playing absolutely lights out, and his December was a stretch that would rival any month, from any guard, from any era. He scored 415 points, with only one game less than twenty-four points, had 86 assists, 70 rebounds, and shot 55.3% from the field. The points and the field goal percentage are really what pop out though. He is the third-highest scorer in the league with 31.2 points per game and is playing the best Eastern Conference defense tonight, the Boston Celtics.
Here’s a fact though, SGA put up thirty-four points against the best defense in the league, the Minnesota Timberwolves. Three days later he put up forty against the second-best defense and did it at Ball Arena against the Denver Nuggets. Now he is at home against the third-best defense in the league, who allow the seventeenth most points to opposing guards. It is the first of back-to-back games, but those seem to have little effect on his play. A fun prop bet on the game of the night, SGA could make his case for a legitimate MVP if he puts up another thirty-three-point game against a top-three defense.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports the Celtics have acquired Anfernee Simons and two second-round picks in exchange for Jrue Holiday.
Drafted by the Trail Blazers in 2018, Simons spent seven years in Portland and averaged between 17.3 and 22.6 points per game over the last four years. He’s entering a situation with the Celtics where he could be asked to carry a high-usage role in the absence of Jayson Tatum. With Simons on an expiring contract, the Celtics made a low-risk move getting away from the $72 million owed to Holiday. The Celtics could remain active in the trade market, only adding to Simons’ opportunity next year. Simons was ranked 110th in per game value on Basketball Monster last year. After playing a career-high 70 games last year, Simons could be set up for a career year with the Celtics.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported the Trail Blazers have acquired Jrue Holiday in exchange for Anfernee Simons and two second-round picks.
One year after winning a championship and signing a contract extension, Holiday is on his way out of Boston. The 35-year-old point guard was traded back to the Trail Blazers in a move that saves Boston enough cap space to potentially get under the second apron. Holiday averaged 11.1 points per game, 4.3 rebounds per game and 3.9 assists per game last year. He was ranked 107 in per game value by Basketball Monster. The Trail Blazers were aggressive in re-acquiring Holiday, who should have a major role with the team next year.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Daniel Gafford intends to sign a three-year contract extension worth nearly $60 million with the Mavericks.
Gafford has been a key player for the Mavericks since joining the team via a trade with the Wizards prior to the 2024 trade deadline. The 26-year-old center averaged 12.3 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game and 1.8 blocks per game this past year. Gafford saw an increase in production in an 11-game stretch where the team was without Dereck Lively II. The Mavericks continue to value size as they keep Gafford to go along with Lively II, Anthony Davis and presumed No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg in the frontcourt.
The Athletic’s Kelly Iko reported the Rockets are likely to decline Fred VanVleet’s team option and discuss a long-term extension in the coming days.
The Rockets have until Sunday to make a decision on VanVleet’s $44.9 million team option. NBA Insider Marc Stein also reported there’s a “strong expectation” that the Rockets agree to a long-term deal with VanVleet before free agency officially opens up on June 30. VanVleet could be looking at a three-year offer, though it would be for less money annually than his team option. The Rockets will be looking to stay under the first apron of the salary cap this year, but VanVleet is certainly a player they want to keep in the wake of the Kevin Durant trade.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports that Khris Middleton has picked up his $33.3 million player option for the 2025-26 season.
No surprises here, as Middleton will get fully compensated for the final year of the three-year, $93 million deal he signed with Milwaukee in 2023. Given his recent injury history and declining play, Middleton’s next contract will surely be far less than what he makes this season. He will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports that Tyrese Haliburton suffered a torn right Achilles tendon in Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday.
As feared, Haliburton’s injury is severe, and it will likely cost him all of next season. It’s a brutal development for the emerging superstar, especially after the magical playoff run he led. In Hali’s absence, T.J. McConnell could see a big uptick in playing time and usage, while Ben Sheppard could see more time off the bench, and Andrew Nembhard could take on more responsibility as a facilitator.