There were two surprising victories yesterday, as both road teams won to advance to the Conference Finals. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets was so close to a four-bet sweep yesterday, but the Denver Nuggets had a historic meltdown. The spread was not covered, nor the moneyline, as Minnesota now has the largest Game 7 comeback in NBA History. Well done by the Timberwolves coaches and players.

 

 


 

Fantasy Alarm was successful on three out of four bets and returned +1.78-unit profit yesterday. That is +10.28 units won during the playoffs, and the goal was met! It also means 260 of the 520 bets mentioned were successful: exactly 50%. 

Although we were at 56% at one point, the Law of Big Numbers is a scientific law for a reason, and every year-round (professional) bettor should plan for it to be true. Adding the +10.28 units to the 32.00 which were withdrawn, equals +42.48 units gained in one sport’s season.. that is something to be happy about! 

So is +2.48 units for that matter, because beating the sportsbooks along with their advanced computers, millions of simulators, billions of dollars, a team of experts in each sport, and retired sports bettors is not easy. With that said, I've got a few NBA picks as they pertain to the upcoming Conference Finals matchups.

 

 

 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Conference Finals Predictions & Picks

Starting with the Eastern Conference in my NBA best bets, the Indiana Pacers are a tougher match for the Boston Celtics than the New York Knicks would have been. The Boston Celtics like to score, and score often… so do the Indiana Pacers. Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle has much more playoff coaching experience than Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla, and it could show at some point during this series.

The Boston Celtics have the better constructed roster though, and will have the better team on the court. Even without Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics have an offensive scoring machine. They have had games which they have not scored well, and allowed a key player on the other team to make several buckets. Both of them came in the second game of the series. Pascal Siakam could be the person to give Boston trouble this series as his post- and mid-game scoring is elite. 

The Indiana Pacers not only have the more experienced coach, but also the momentum. They have won back-to-back elimination games and have found an offensive game plan and rhythm that is difficult to contain. They have several three-point makers and Tyrese Haliburton is the best point guard in the series, if not the entire playoffs. 

This will be the Celtics toughest test yet, but it won’t be that much of a test. There are a few NBA betting suggestions for the series but be mindful that sportsbooks use different terminology and offer different futures. These listed bets are found on DraftKings Sportsbook:

 

 

 

In my Western Conference NBA predictions, the future is a bit murkier. Minnesota has the size to slow Dallas down, and Dallas has the size to compete with Minnesota. Minnesota just took down the defending champions, but Denver doesn’t have the all-time backcourt that Dallas has. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are a problem for any team but could be especially a problem for the Timberwolves. 

Jaden McDaniels is the best perimeter defender remaining in the playoffs, and he could be the best in the NBA. He will be tasked with slowing down Luka Doncic, which will leave Kyrie Irving one-on-one with Mike Conley or Anthony Edwards… not an ideal situation for the Timberwolves. P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford are more than capable of playing with Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns from a defensive standpoint, too.

Minnesota has an offense and defense that can be the best in the NBA when it wants to. Rudy Gobert will have a much better series as Dallas does not have anyone with Nikola Jokic’s skill set in the post. Gobert will make the pick and roll difficult for Dallas, and that has become one of their bread and butter plays. But can he stay out of foul trouble?

This series really could go either way, and home court advantage is really irrelevant as both of these teams have won on the road and lost at home. Here are some betting angles for the Western Conference Finals also found on DraftKings:

 

 

 

2024 NBA Finals Odds & Preview

It is difficult to predict who comes out of the Western Conference, but there is one team the Boston Celtics will have a clear advantage over. Should the Celtics play the Minnesota Timberwolves, they will likely win the series in five games. 

The simple truth is the Minnesota Timberwolves will not be able to keep pace with the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will outscore them to 100 and that will likely determine the winner of every game of the NBA Finals. If Kristaps Porzingis comes back healthy prior to the NBA Finals, Boston will have the size and scoring to cruise past the Timberwolves.

If the Dallas Mavericks win the series then Boston could be in for more of a battle. The Mavericks have a competitive, high-scoring backcourt that can keep pace with the Celtics. Jason Kidd is a championship player and coach and would have experience that Joe Mazzulla does not. In the event that Dallas goes to the NBA Finals, it truly would become a toss-up as both teams have great offenses and good defenses. 

Below are the listed odds for the NBA champion. All of them are still at great odds, so if you feel really good about a team, put a unit on them. 

On a weird side note, should Dallas and Indiana meet in the NBA Finals, I believe it would be the first time a head coach and point guard that won a championship together (Dallas 2011), would coach against each other in the NBA Finals. That would be an interesting and unique coaching matchup. 

 

 

 

Thanks for tuning in, and make sure to visit Fantasy Alarm’s sports section for more betting, DFS, and best ball tips!

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise