Rockets vs. Warriors Predictions, Picks & Odds: NBA Playoffs Game 4, Today 4/28

Heading into Saturday night, Game 4 was all about the status of Jimmy Butler. Even with the newest Golden State Warrior ruled out with a pelvic contusion, they still got the job done to take the 2-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets. To hit yet another pick, we’ve got our best Rockets vs. Warriors predictions for Game 4.
To go along with the best bet from our Rockets vs. Warriors picks, we’ll be sharing how to enjoy daily player pick ‘em lineups (yes, even in Texas and California!) with a guaranteed Sleeper Fantasy promo code bonus!
Rockets vs. Warriors Predictions For Tonight NBA Playoffs Game 4, 4/28
Hopefully you were with us for Game 3, as we were able to have a sweat-free hit thanks to Stephen Curry going over 26.5 points with 36 on Saturday. That was even before Jimmy Butler was ruled out, as things weren’t sounding good leading up to tip-off.
Curry’s vintage performance earned him even more accolades for his Hall-of-Fame resume, which we’ll dive into a bit more coming up. Even still, it was yet another low-scoring game, which has been the theme of this series since our Game 1 best bet on the under 214.5 points as well.
We’ve yet to see a game in this series where both teams eclipsed 100 points, so it’s no shock to see the Rockets vs. Warriors odds having a total of barely above 200 points. While we’re expecting a similar result tonight, of course, we’ll get more specific in terms of the best bet from our Rockets vs. Warriors predictions for Game 4.
Houston Rockets: More Offensive Struggles
Everyone enjoyed their “Green-on-Green” puns with the scuffle after Game 3 given it was focused on Golden State’s Draymond Green and Houston’s Jalen Green, but at the end of the day, it was the Warriors defense standout that got the better end of the deal. It’s safe to say that he was quite motivated after Jalen Green went for 38 in Game 2.
When Draymond contested shots on Saturday night, the Rockets went just 4-for-17 (23.6%). He may not win Defensive Player of the Year, but he’s been one of the best to do it for the past decade now. It was also a major factor in the Rockets shooting 33% in the final five minutes and getting outscored 19-9 to close out the game.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry Does It Again
It was a doubters beware situation on Saturday night, and once again, Stephen Curry proved them all wrong. Anytime you think that his circus shots should stop going in, they keep falling. Even if you thought that the Rockets stout defense could just focus the sharpshooter with Jimmy Butler out, that still didn’t matter.
Stephen Curry was double-teamed on 27 plays, yet he still continues to make history. For one, it was his whopping 37th 30-5-5 playoff game, which is tied with the late great Kobe Bryant for the most in NBA history. He’s also alongside LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with his third 35+ point playoff game at age 37 or older.
Rockets vs. Warriors Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
Following the Game 3 victory, Golden State is favored even more tonight according to the latest Rockets vs. Warriors odds for Game 4:
- Point Spread: Houston Rockets +4 (-110) vs. Golden State Warriors -4 (-110)
- Money Line: Houston Rockets (+145) vs. Golden State Warriors (-175)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 201.5 (-110) vs. Under 201.5 (-110)
Rockets vs. Warriors Best Bet: Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 Assists
While Game 3 was all about Stephen Curry, which also benefitted us, we’re going to swap to the Houston side of the matchup for the best bet from our Rockets vs. Warriors predictions for Game 4.
Knowing how Golden State will handle minutes with their lineup given the Jimmy Butler situation has us hesitant to put our focus there. After all, Jalen Green came through for us in Game 2 by soaring over 18.5 points with 38, and now we’re putting our faith in his backcourt mate, Fred VanVleet.
It’s time for him to take his primary role back from Green. Throughout the regular season, as you’d expect from the point guard, it was VanVleet that led the team with 5.6 assists per game. However, in this series, it’s been Jalen Green leading the way in that regard.
Well, with Houston’s only win being the game in which Green focused on scoring, that should be what he goes back to doing from here on out. It was also assists that were VanVleet’s focus against Golden State in the regular season, as he had 5+ assists in three of four games against the Warriors.
On top of that, he even had seven assists when they met in this year’s NBA Cup. That was despite a 91-90 game, so even if points continue to be difficult to come by, he’s proven he can get the job done. Therefore, the best bet from our Rockets vs. Warriors predictions is Fred VanVleet over 4.5 assists (enjoy player picks at Sleeper Fantasy).

Rockets vs. Warriors Injury Report & Starting Lineups
With just a day between Games 3 and 4, the biggest Rockets vs. Warriors injury news remains Jimmy Butler. In fact, it’s really the only notable one of this series, which is the positive side of it. Until we get official word, here are the expected Rockets vs. Warriors lineups:
GS Warriors:
HOU Rockets:
- Fred VanVleet
- Jalen Green
- Amen Thompson
- Dillon Brooks
- Alperen Sengun
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Player News
Mavericks have won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery.
With just a 1.8 percent chance of success, Dallas leaped up in the lottery to nab the top pick in the 2025 draft. A little over three months after GM Nico Harrison traded away Luka Doncic, the Mavs will have a new young superstar to build around. Cooper Flagg is the expected top pick, and he will flawlessly fit Harrison’s mantra “defensive wins championships” that he has echoed tirelessly in every interview since trading Doncic. Assuming nothing changes, Flagg will join a loaded Dallas team that should be a contender in the stacked Western Conference next season. San Antonio, Philadelphia and Charlotte round out the top four picks in a talented draft class.
Brandin Podziemski had 11 points (3-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist and four steals in Game 4 against the Timberwolves on Monday.
Podziemski was 3-of-14 from the field and missed all four of his three-point attempts. His 22.5 field goal percentage in this series is the worst for any player (min. 35 attempts) since Pero Antic shot 16.7 percent in the Hawks vs. Pacers series in 2014, according to Josh Dubow of the Associated Press. Down 3-1 in the series now, the Warriors need Stephen Curry to return from his hamstring injury for Game 5, a miracle or both to get back in this series.
Jimmy Butler had 14 points (5-of-9 FGs), six rebounds, three assists and one block in Game 4 against the Timberwolves on Monday.
Despite the Warriors win in Game 1, Butler warned in postgame interviews that Stephen Curry is the team’s best player and it was going to be difficult to win games without him. After what’s transpired over the last three games, which the Warriors have all lost, he might’ve been underselling it. Butler wasn’t able to fill Curry’s shoes in Game 4. In fact, he was a team-worst minus-30 in 34 minutes in the seven-point loss. The Warriors will have their backs against the wall facing elimination in Game 5 on Wednesday.
Julius Randle had 31 points (11-of-21 FGs), five rebounds, three assists, one steal, one block and four three-pointers in Game 4 against the Warriors on Monday.
Anthony Edwards had 30 points (11-of-21 FGs), four rebounds, five assists, two steals and six three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-110 victory over the Warriors in Game 4 on Monday.
Derrick White had 23 points (6-of-12 FGs), three rebounds, two assists and six three-pointers against the Knicks in Game 4 on Monday.
White was the Celtics second leading scorer in Game 4, but he was the only consistent scorer for Boston outside of Jayson Tatum. The 30-year-old point guard got all of his points on six three-pointers and five free throws. Unfortunately for the Celtics it wasn’t enough as Boston was trailing when Tatum went down with a lower leg injury in the final minutes, essentially taking a comeback off the table. The Celtics will look to stave off elimination with their backs against the wall at home in Game 5 on Wednesday.