NBA Best Bets Today, 4/21: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Monday
Yesterday was a day of blow out wins, as the lowest margin of victory was by ten points. The Houston Rockets lost 85-95 to the Golden State Warriors who were led by Jimmy Butler in his first playoff game as a Warrior. Golden State’s defensive effort ensured a portion of our NBA best bets of Houston -3.0 would not be cashed.
The Orlando Magic lost 86-103 against the Boston Celtics, but what is worse is that it wasn’t even close to covering the 205.5 projected point total. The lone bright spot came in the Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder match. In most matches that the Thunder score 131 points, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scores at least his average.
Despite the Thunder winning by 51 points, Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 15 points, and played just 23 minutes. The player proposition came through preventing what could have been a disastrous day for our NBA predictions.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/21
This Monday there are two NBA playoff games, one from each conference, both in the evening and both on TNT.
The first of our NBA best bets today comes from the second of tonight’s matches.
Clippers vs. Nuggets Prediction: Denver -3.5 (+135 BOOSTED to +162 on BetMGM) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Clippers for game two at Ball Arena. If the second match is anything like the first one was, we are set for another instant classic. Saturday’s match went into overtime, as Denver overcame a fifteen-point deficit to win. The sportsbooks have it projected as another close game, with Los Angeles favored by -1.5 points on most sportsbooks.
Several players were on the court for well over 40 minutes in Saturday's match, including the Clippers Kawhi Leonard. He has now played over forty minutes in his last three matches, all of which have been on the road. He averaged just 31.9 minutes this season and the narrative is he is well rested and in condition with just 37 games played.
Only in basketball is a player participating in less than half the season considered a bonus. Marathon runners would not get that advantage, golf has a history of this, and boxers won’t even consider fighting without time to prepare specifically to get in shape. Yet for Kawhi Leonard, who the Clippers depend on for production it is supposedly great.
He looked gassed in the second half, and playing at Denver’s altitude is a serious issue for those that are in great conditioning. Even more so for those that have played less than half of this season’s matches. On the flip side of this, Denver is poised for this.
The Nuggets will utilize their bench more in the second game of this series. Four players played over 45 minutes, as only eight players were on the court and one of those played less than five minutes. Michael Porter was the only starter who did not play 45 or more minutes, and he will be a rebounding force, as he reverts back to hustle in order to be involved.
In some ways it felt like Los Angeles gave the Nuggets their best punch and Denver withstood the pain and came out on top. The best player in the world, NIkola Jokic, is a major advantage but this game will come down to which team has the better offensive production. Denver scores 120.8 and Los Angeles scores 112.9, yesterday was a defensive game, today will be more offensive as team’s make adjustments after examining the game tape
Put a unit on the teased up spread and take advantage of BetMGM’s boosted offer. It moves the odds from +135 to +162, and for those that do not have BetMGM, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s bonus offer for new customers.
Pistons vs. Knicks Prediction: Jalen Duren U10.5 Rebounds (-110 on Bet365)
The New York Knicks host the Detroit Pistons for game two at Madison Square Garden. The crowd was rowdy, and the Kncks went on an epic 21-0 run in the fourth quarter to ensure a come from behind victory. The Knicks have an opportunity to keep the momentum rolling against a franchise who are just getting their toes back in the playoff pool.
Jalen Duren looked great in the minutes he played yesterday, but he only played 25 minutes. Isaiah Stewart also looked good, at least defensively, and when in the lineup was able to limit Karl-Anthony Towns offensive production. Detroit will need more screens to free up Cade Cunnninghma, and tough defense to get back into this match. Stewart is the best at those two needs and could get an increase in minutes played.
The thought process is J.B. Bickerstaff will continue to utilize both of his centers regardless if Stewart gets more time, but the prediction is he will. Towns was the leading rebounder in Saturday’s match with 11 rebounds, and he will be a force once again. Not only that Josh Hart and OG Anunoby had more rebounds (7) than the highest rebounding Pistons player (four with 6).
Rebounding is something Knicks Head Coach Tom Thibodeau’s teams usually do well, and Duren has a tough battle against their roster. Put a unit on the next of our NBA best bets today of Duren to record less than 10.5 rebounds against the Knicks. For those that are not yet utilizing Bet365 sportsbook make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s offer at the end of this article.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/21
For the third of our NBA best bets today the focus is put back on the Clippers versus Nuggets match, and a player proposition at plus odds.
Clippers vs. Nuggets Prediction: Russell Westbrook O4.5 Rebounds (+110 on DraftKings)
Russell Westbrook is a polarizing figure, there are some that believe he is one of the best of all-time, and others that believe he makes too many errors and cannot deliver in big moments. One aspect of his game that is not questioned by many is his effort, and his effort was on full display in game one. Although he came off the bench, he ended up playing 34:25 minutes.
When watching the first match between the Clippers vs Nuggets, you could tell how much this game, these playoffs mean to Westbrook. He forced a game clinching turnover against James Harden, made crucial threes when needed, made smart fouls against players with bad free throw percentages, and was aggressive in his pursuit of rebounds.
Westbrook earned 8 rebounds yesterday, and four of them were offensive as he split through, ran by, and out jumped the Clippers defense. He will be called upon again, and he knows that he can contribute to the game in three different phases. He has earned 5 or more rebounds in four of his last seven matches, and the fact that his line is set at 4.5 with positive odds on the over is a bit confusing.
In some ways Westbrook has an opportunity to be on a ‘revenge tour’. The Clippers was the organization he played with prior to Denver, and the Oklahoma City Thunder were the first organization. Should the Nuggets win this round they would likely play the Thunder, and if they are going to win both Westbrook will have to play his best basketball of the season.
Put a unit on Westbrook going over 4.5 rebounds against the Clippers tonight. He will see several minutes again, and his rebounding average is 4.9 per game. For those that do not have DraftKings Sportsbook make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s offer for new customers.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
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Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.