Jesse Winker Underdog MLB Picks Today, 10/3: Baseball Projections + More
On Thursday, October 3rd, we have a massive opportunity to secure a nice winning day with our Underdog MLB Picks and MLB DFS projections as the MLB Postseason continues.
Looking for an edge today, we look at the MLB DFS projections for Jesse Winker of the New York Mets and Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Underdog MLB Picks: Thursday, 10/3; MLB DFS Projections
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Jesse Winker MLB Underdog Pick: Less Than 0.5 Total Bases
It makes me comfortable going here even though all it’ll take Winker is one singular hit. A little luck, in fact, and we lose, but I’m confident we won’t, and it makes this one of my favorite Underdog MLB Picks of the day.
First off, Winker is dealing with a bad back currently and he has not looked good at the dish going 2-of-22 over his last 10 games. Also, if a lefty comes into the game for Tobias Myers, Winker will be pinch-hit for as he’s only playing against righties.
Jackson Chourio MLB Underdog Pick: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
I love this kid and everything he’s about and he’s shown up in a massive way this postseason. With the Mets turning to another lefty, we should see Jackson Chourio leading off once in this spot. Chourio is amongst the best Underdog MLB Picks of the day.
Over his last 10 games, Chourio is hitting .361 and he’s hit lefties well since his season took off batting .301 against them since June 1st. Against Jose Quintana, righties have a .161 xISO and .334 xwOBA on the year and he faces a struggling bullpen after him.
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.