With the second half of the season underway and the MLB trade deadline looming, it’s time to check in with this week’s Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch. Teams are going to make moves to secure their spot in the playoffs and there will be ripple effects that impact your fantasy rosters.

People comment all the time about how long and arduous the fantasy baseball grind is, but it truly is amazing how fast the time goes by. We are roughly two months away from the close of the season and adjusting your roster for the stretch run is more important than ever. 

 

 

The July 30th trade deadline will arrive, and numerous players are going to see their fantasy values significantly change. Then, the dog days of summer hit, teams fall out of contention and before you know it, we get hit by a barrage of September call-ups. That means you’re headed into a fantasy baseball waiver wire fight, so if your house isn’t in order, you’re going to have problems.

So, let’s get those rosters solidified. Let’s figure out which players are currently rising and falling in value, which players to target in fantasy baseball trades and which players you may want to jettison from your roster.

Time for a little ‘3 Up, 3 Down’!

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: Risers

Jarren Duran, OF Boston Red Sox

OK, so they’re going to pull my Yankees Fan card for saying all of this, but Duran is really turning into a special player. It’s not just that he’s opened up the second half batting .389 with two home runs and seven RBI or that he has 12 home runs and 22 stolen bases on the year. It’s the overall vibe he puts out on the team as well. Yes, the dreaded “intangibles” that no one can quantify but everyone seems to like.

Duran has an ease about him. He loves the game, and he loves being on the field. That attitude is infectious, and it not only helps keep him loose, but also helps lift those around him. When you’re a leadoff hitter, having that kind of effect on your teammates is only going to help boost your own stats. If you need runs scored, speed or help in the batting average/OBP category, he’s a fantastic target, and if that league is a keeper league of some sort, even better!

Lawrence Butler, OF Oakland Athletics

We are going to see plenty of guys on the A’s getting full-time at bats as it is now audition time for Oakland. They know they’re not going anywhere, so it’s a matter of bringing in all the kids and letting them play. Oftentimes, that has a positive impact on a club, especially in the early goings of the transition. With the A’s bringing up some of their kids, Butler is showing them just what is needed right now. 

He closed the first half with a three-homer game and has now opened up the second half with four straight multi-hit games with two doubles, one triple, five RBI and four runs scored. We don’t anticipate him being so dialed in for the next two months, but this is about striking while the iron is hot. Butler is rostered in fewer than 20% of leagues on ESPN and Yahoo right now, so grab him if you can and ride the wave until it breaks.

Jacob Young, OF Washington Nationals

If you feel the need for speed, then Young is exactly who you want right now. The Nationals outfielder is wildly under owned across the board. We’re talking ownership numbers below 10% across the major sites! We don’t love the .255 average and the .320 OBP is just meh, but the steals are what you need here, and he’s got four through the first three games of the second half and now has 24 on the season.

The Nationals are going through what the A’s are going through, though with a slight variation. Washinton is still technically in the playoff race. Their positioning isn’t great, and they definitely don’t have the horses to take them to the Promised Land, but they’re giving it their all and they’re going to be playing their kids as much as possible. 

Young will stay in this lineup every day and he’ll be surrounded by top MLB prospects like James Wood and maybe eventually Dylan Crews. Once the kids are all up and playing together, they’re going to have some fun. They’re going to be aggressive and that means Young is going to keep on running. Take advantage of his under-the-radar profile while you can.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: Fallers

Brice Turang, 2B Milwaukee Brewers

The only thing worse than closing out the first half on a 2-for-20 skid is opening up the second half 1-for-16 with six strikeouts. Gross. Turang’s biggest appeal is his ability to steal bases and he’s at 30 for the season right now. 

The problem, however, is that he’s stolen just two bases in July (16 games) and any semblance of plate discipline he was showing early on in the year has diminished. Over the last two months, Turan has seen his strikeout rate climb up towards the 20% mark and while that number may not be awful, it’s getting progressively worse. It was at 19.7% in June and as of July 22, he was at 18.8% for July with another week to go. 

But since the second half opened, he’s fanning at a 37.5% clip and he’s not drawing any walks. Yes, sure, it’s early, but he also hasn’t faced any pitchers who can be considered dominant either. Maybe this is a decent buy-low opportunity for someone who needs stolen bases, but at this point, I’d rather have Jacob Young.

Josh Smith, 2B/3B Texas Rangers

This is actually more of a buy-low opportunity than Turang as I have much more confidence in Smith turning things around. The whole Rangers lineup, for that matter, actually. The Rangers closed out the first half with a number of guys going cold (remember Marcus Semien in the Stock Watch a few weeks ago?), and Smith not only was one of them, but he’s opened the second half in even worse fashion. 

Yes, Smith had a two-homer game to finish the first half, but those two homers were his only hits in four games, and he’s now opened up the second half 0-for-14 with six strikeouts. We expect the team to heat back up as the playoffs loom and Smith, along with Semien, Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia, should all get back into the rhythm with which they opened the season. Check the waiver wire for his availability but if you need to pry him away from another owner, it might be worth your while, especially with that multi-position eligibility around the infield.

Tanner Scott, RP Miami Marlins

I will, once again, point towards my most recent article in the New York Post that highlights the closer position. Scott isn’t the only one I wrote about, so go check out the article and see who else is there. The piece is all about teams falling out of contention and which closers are most likely to be moved and are likely to lose their job as a closer. Saves are vital, but in the real baseball world, the managers just want to solidify their bullpen.

The Marlins are about to have their fire sale and Scott is atop the wish list of many general managers with his 1.27 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 42.2 innings. Depending on where he lands, though, he could be out of the closing business and your need for saves is going to go up. Maybe he lands back in Baltimore and competes with Craig Kimbrel, but maybe he lands in San Diego and becomes a set-up man for Roger Suarez? The deck is stacked against him and you’re going to need a new closer.