MLB DFS Playbook April 29: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Apr 29, 2023
We have an eight-game MLB DFS early slate on DraftKings and a four-game MLB DFS early slate on FanDuel on Saturday, April 29th. The two slates both avoid Coors Field, which isn't the worst thing in the world, but there are some clear omissions from site-to-site that we have to watch for. Bailey Ober was left off the DraftKings slate, so you can only use him on FanDuel. Spencer Strider is the top option on DraftKings while Kevin Gausman is the top dog on FanDuel. There are a few spots we need to look out for weather situations that could cause a delay or maybe even a postponement. Be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the daily MLB projections, MLB DFS rostership projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Weather Center
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins - There will be enough rain to cause a delay but should be able to get through the entire game.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets - There will again be a lot of rain in New York. We saw them play through five innings and wait a LONG time to call the game officially. We could see a delay, a late start, and play through the whole game here.
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox - There is a strong possibility there’s going to be a delay here. It could also be worst-case scenario and a PPD could be involved. GPPs only.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Spencer Strider vs. New York Mets (No odds on DK Sportsbook)
Hunter Greene U 7.5 (+100) vs. Oakland Athletics
Kevin Gausman O 6.5 (-145) vs. Seattle Mariners
Bailey Ober O 5.5 (-120) vs. Kansas City Royals
Best Odds for a Win
Kevin Gausman vs. Seattle Mariners (-245)
Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals (-230)
Spencer Strider vs. New York Mets (-170)
Hunter Greene vs. Oakland Athletics (-155)
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Spencer Strider vs. New York Mets
I mean, this guy has been on a different planet, it’s all about if this game will play and play in full. He’s been as good as it gets coming off eight scoreless innings in which he allowed just 2 hits and struck out 13. The Mets have not struck out a lot against right-handed pitching this year, but that’ll be put to the test here. They’re 17th in OPS vs. RHP, so they’re slightly below the league average. Advantage Strider there.
Hunter Greene vs. Oakland Athletics
This is a spot a lot of people are going to get to despite the massive spike in price. Greene was 7.5K the last time we saw him now he’s 9K. It’s warranted, however, considering he gets to face Oakland. Against the right-handed hurlers this year, Oakland is 28th in OPS, 26th in wOBA and have a 24.8% K-rate, which is where Greene will make the biggest mark on this game. What an upgrade in a pitcher’s environment, too, going from Cincinnati to Oakland.
Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Only - I say FD only because for some reason, DraftKings excluded Ober from the player pool today. That's unfortunate because the Royals are the WORST offense in the league against right-handed pitching, ranking last in basically every category imaginable. They also have a 26.4%K-rate and Ober is the second biggest favorite on the slate. Love him over there if not paying up for Strider or Greene.
Dean Kremer vs. Detroit Tigers
Kremer’s been pretty bad, but the Tigers have been worse. Detroit is 29th in OPS and wOBA and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Kremer has had ONE good start and he fired six scoreless innings, so at least we know there is upside in there. He has back-to-back wins and in those starts he’s put up 14+ DKP.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
Toronto Blue Jays - 5.4
Pittsburgh Pirates - 4.8
Boston Red Sox - 4.8
Minnesota Twins - 4.7
Miami Marlins - 4.7
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Where Chris Flexen has struggled the past few seasons has been against right-handed batters and would ya look what we have here, one of the best in the game in Guerrero Jr. He’s hitting .324 this year and against right-handers, he’s hit all of his home runs and has a .387 wOBA. Flexen has allowed RHH a .357 AVG, .980 OPS, and .430 wOBA.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jr., Miami Marlins
After a slow start to the year, Chisholm Jr. is starting to get in a very solid groove offensively. He’s hit in four straight games, has four stolen bases over his last two, and has belted two home runs over that four-game span as well. He faces a guy making his season debut and what Caleb Kilian struggled with at Triple-A last year was left-handed bats. Lefties hit .299 with an .805 OPS last year. I love Chisholm today as he could be one of the highest-scoring players of the slate.
Rodolfo Castro, Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year was the year of Rodolfo Castro against left-handed pitching and he’s picked up where he left off this year. Through his first 27 at-bats against southpaws, Castro is hitting .370 with 3 HR and a .510 wOBA. He had a .600 SLG%, .338 ISO, and .382 wOBA against southpaws last year. Patrick Corbin opposes him here and Corbin has been a punching bag over the past few seasons. Righties are hitting .330 with a .900 OPS and .387 wOBA against him.
Masataka Yoshida & Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
I’m going with BOTH Red Sox outfielders here because I couldn’t decide between the two. Durtren had ANOTHER monster game on Friday night going 3-for-4 with three doubles and is now hitting .436 on the year. Yoshida is hitting .341 over his last 10 games and the power at the major league level has been on display. This game has one of the highest implied totals of the day, the Red Sox have one of the highest implied totals, and this match-up is a doozy. Zach Plesac has been baaaaad this year allowing lefties a whopping .395 AVG, 1.010 OPS, and .454 wOBA.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Kevin Gausman  $11,200 | Vladimir Guerrero $4,200 |  Matt Chapman $4,100 | Bo Bichette $3,800 |  Bryan Reynolds $4,000 | ||
| Medium |  Bailey Ober $8,400 |  Connor Joe $3,400 |  Whit Merrifield $3,100 | Ke'Bryan Hayes $2,900 |  Jorge Polanco $3,500 | Andrew McCutchen $3,300 | |
| George Springer $3,200 | |||||||
| Low |  Dean Kremer $7,300 | Alejandro Kirk $2,700 |  Jeimer Candelario $2,700 |  Rodolfo Castro $2,700 |  Alex Call $2,900 |
Stacks
| Blue Jays | Alejandro Kirk | George Springer | Bo Bichette | Whit Merrifield | Vladimir Guerrero |
 DraftKings | 3800 | 5200 | 5900 | 3900 | 6100 |
| Fanduel | 2700 | 3200 | 3800 | 3100 | 4200 |
| Red Sox | Jarren Duran | Rafael Devers | Masataka Yoshida |
| DraftKings | 3300 | 6200 | - |
| Fanduel | - | - | - |
| Marlins | Jesús Sánchez | Jazz Chisholm | Luis Arraez |
| DraftKings | 2100 | 4900 | 4200 |
| Fanduel | - | - | - |
| Pirates | Connor Joe | Andrew McCutchen | Ke'Bryan Hayes | Rodolfo Castro |
| DraftKings | 4000 | 4600 | 4700 | 3600 |
| Fanduel | 3400 | 3300 | 2900 | 2700 |
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.