MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Monday Playbook
Published: Oct 07, 2024
On Monday, October 7th, we have a solid two-game MLB DFS main slate kicking off at 4:08 PM ET.
There is a great mixture of aces, back-end starting pitching, and elite offensive options for the second day of the MLB Division Series round in the American League for today's MLB DFS picks.
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MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, October 7th
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers - 5.5 (-145)
- Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals - 5.5 (-140)
- Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees - 5.5 (+125)
- Matthew Boyd, Cleveland Guardians - 4.5 (-150)
Odds For A Win
- Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (+135)
- Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (+230)
- Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees (+250)
- Matthew Boyd, Cleveland Guardians (+600)
Bullpen ERAs (September/October)
- Cleveland Guardians - 1.31
- Detroit Tigers - 2.41
- Kansas City Royals - 2.77
- New York Yankees - 3.67
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
I’m going to rank the four starting pitchers on tonight’s slate:
1) Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
In his playoff debut, Tarik Skubal looked as good as ever against the Astros and the soon-to-be Cy Young winner needs to help his team steal Game 2 in Cleveland. Skubal has the best odds for a win, and strikeouts and the Guardians have the lowest implied team total on the board. He only faced the Guardians once this year and held them to one run over seven innings. Cleveland is a top-10 offense in the league against southpaws this year, for what that’s worth.
2) Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees
There’s a bunch to like about Carlos Rodon here. First and foremost, he’s the cheapest pitcher on the slate – cheaper than Matthew Boyd. First is the price, but the matchup is fantastic. The Royals have not hit lefties well this year ranking 24th in OPS, 25th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. Rodon has been an elite pitcher at home this year and has had the Royals' number in the two starts against them this season.
3) Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
I think Cole Ragans has been more consistent than Carlos Rodon, so if you want to rank him second that’s fine, but his matchup is infinitely harder. The Yankees are in the top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA against the southpaws this season. Ragans is a pitcher consistently going deep into games, pitching six-plus innings in five straight outings.
4) Matthew Boyd, Cleveland Guardians
I don’t mind getting to Matthew Boyd if you think the Tigers are wearing down and if you think Boyd can pitch deep enough into this game to pick up a win. The Guardians are a team that is VERY quick to go to their bullpen and Boyd’s xFIP and SIERA are over a run higher than his ERA. That said, Detroit is 26th in OPS against left-handed pitchers. They were actually one position worse since the All-Star break too. I like Boyd, I’m just worried about the length of his start here.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- New York Yankees - 4.2
- Kansas City Royals - 3.5
- Detroit Tigers - 3.2
- Cleveland Guardians - 2.9
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Bobby Witt, Kansas City Royals
I like Bobby Witt as the top spend-up of the slate. He's been great against left-handed pitching and has gotten quite unlucky against them too. He has a .180 ISO and .359 wOBA; yet, his .235 xISO and .394 xwOBA are significantly better. Right-handed power has given Carlos Rodon fits this year and over the last 30 days, righties have a .250 ISO against him.
Aaron Judge, Juan Soto & Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
The Yankees top three is very good against left-handed pitching. Torres included, and he's the cheapest of three by a mile, has a .190 ISO and .353 wOBA against lefties this year. Soto has a .272 ISO and .413 wOBA against lefties, and he needs more luck. Aaron Judge has been ELITE against southpaws posting a .424 ISO and .500 wOBA
Matt Vierling & Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
I like Torkelson a lot, especially from a power standpoint. He has a .272 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Vierling should lead off and maximize at-bats. I'm slightly interested in punt plays like Justyn-Henry Malloy and Andry Ibanez as well but understand both of them will be pinch-hit for.
Jose Ramirez & David Fry, Cleveland Guardians
Nobody will play any Guardians and that'll be the contrarian route on today's slate. They're the top two players on Cleveland against southpaws as Ramirez has a 1.081 OPS and David Fry sits at .996. Fry had a big Game 1 and should slot into the two-hole once again and will go unowned despite having elite eligibility. Amongst all the top spend ups on the slate, he'll be the lowest owned by a mile.
Tommy Pham, Kansas City Royals
Throughout his career, Tommy Pham has excelled against left-handed pitching. He has an .817 OPS, .179 ISO, and .353 wOBA against southpaws this year. His expected numbers of .171 xISO and .338 xwOBA against lefties and Carlos Rodon allow a ton of power to right-handers.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Tarik Skubal  $10,600 |  José Ramírez $4,100 |  Bobby Witt $4,000 |  Aaron Judge $4,600 | ||
 Juan Soto $4,500 | ||||||
| Medium | Cole Ragans $9,500 | Salvador Perez $3,000 | Gleyber Torres $3,000 | Anthony Volpe $3,100 | Giancarlo Stanton $3,300 | |
| Carlos Rodón $9,000 | Lane Thomas $3,100 | |||||
| Low |  Matthew Boyd $8,400 | Spencer Torkelson $2,700 | Andy Ibáñez $2,600 | Matt Vierling $2,900 |  Tommy Pham $2,800 | |
| David Fry $2,800 |  Garrett Hampson $2,100 | Wenceel Pérez $2,600 | ||||
| Justyn-Henry Malloy $2,500 |
Stacks
| Tigers | Spencer Torkelson | Justyn-Henry Malloy | Andy Ibáñez | Matt Vierling | Wenceel Pérez |
 DraftKings | 3400 | 3000 | 2800 | 4000 | 3300 |
| Fanduel | 2700 | 2500 | 2600 | 2900 | 2600 |
| Yankees | Juan Soto | Gleyber Torres | Aaron Judge | Giancarlo Stanton | Oswaldo Cabrera |
| DraftKings | 6000 | 4200 | 6500 | 4500 | 2800 |
| Fanduel | 4500 | 3000 | 4600 | 3300 | 2300 |
| Guardians | José Ramírez | Lane Thomas | David Fry |
| DraftKings | 6200 | 4200 | 3500 |
| Fanduel | 4100 | 3100 | 2800 |
| Royals | Bobby Witt | Garrett Hampson | Salvador Perez | Tommy Pham |
| DraftKings | 6100 | 2100 | 4100 | 3600 |
| Fanduel | 4000 | 2100 | 3000 | 2800 |
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.