MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Thursday, April 18
Published: Apr 18, 2024
We've got a fun three-game slate to look forward to in the early afternoon! One of the games includes a top prospect, Jack Leiter, making his Major League debut! We'll discuss whether it's worth including the highly touted prospect in your MLB DFS lineups today.
Check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, April 18th.
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, April 18
MLB Weather Today, 4/18
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
- There will be a few scattered showers, but this game won't have a problem finishing.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
The early DFS slate includes just three games, so we'll want to be as precise as possible. You'll probably want to go with the two best pitchers on the slate, Jack Leiter and Ryan Pepiot. From there, you can build your lineup with some lower-cost hitters with plenty of potential today.
However, if you choose to get risky and go with Carlos Carrasco as your pitcher, don't play the Red Sox bats in your lineup. Only play the Boston bats if Carrasco is not being used as your pitcher.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Ryan Pepiot (6.5, +105) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Griffin Canning (5.5, +125) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Jack Leiter (4.5, -140) vs. Detroit Tigers
Best Odds For A Win
- Kenta Maeda (+180) vs. vs. Texas Rangers
- Griffin Canning (+190) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Ryan Pepiot (+205) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays
If anything, Ryan Pepiot is the closest to a sure thing on this three-game slate. Pepiot has struck out nearly 31% of batters to begin the year. He's also limited base runners by only walking 7.7% of batters this season. In addition, Pepiot has allowed just 17.5% of line drives to begin the season and is holding a wOBA of .291.
He'll face an Angels lineup that has struck out nearly 23% of the time against righties since last year. The Angels have also hit average numbers as a projected lineup against righties, hitting a .161 ISO and wOBA of .324. Only Mike Trout, Logan O'Hoppe, and Mickey Moniak are significant threats against Pepiot.
Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers
I don't think adding Jack Leiter to your lineups is a terrible idea. He's facing a Detroit Tigers lineup that has hit an ISO of .119 and wOBA of .293 against righties since last season. Since last season, this Detroit lineup has also struck out 22.8% of the time and walked only 7.3% of the time against righties.
This season, Leiter has a 3.77 ERA with a .99 WHIP in the minor leagues. He's also struck out 25 batters and has walked just three in 14.1 innings. With six strikeout targets in the Detroit lineup, Leiter could easily be the best pitcher on today's three-game slate. But remember, he's a rookie with no MLB experience. It's still a gamble playing Leiter. However, the matchup against the Tigers warrants it.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Guardians
If you need a low-cost starter, you can consider Carlos Carrasco. After all, he's struck out 25% of left-handers to begin the season and will likely face at least seven lefties in today's Boston lineup. That said, the Red Sox's projected lineup has hit a .158 ISO and wOBA of .329 against righties since last year. The same lineup has also struck out 22.3% of the time and has walked only 7.7% of the time against righties. Those aren't incredible numbers.
Still, while Carrasco has earned 25% of strikeouts against lefties, he's also allowed a .238 ISO and wOBA of .397 to the same 28 lefties. He's a genuinely hit-or-miss play today, but that could separate you from others if he finds success with striking out lefties today.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Tampa Bay Rays (4.5, -110) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Boston Red Sox (4.5, -110) vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians (4.5 +100) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Texas Rangers (4.5, +110) vs. Detroit Tigers
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Marcus Semien, 2B, Adolis Garcia, OF, Texas Rangers
Although Kenta Maeda is a right-handed thrower, he's been way worse against right-handed hitters. Maeda has allowed a .385 ISO and wOBA of .455 to his first 29 righties faced. He's also struck out just 10.3% of righties to begin the year. This is consistent with last year's stats. Last year, Maeda allowed a much higher ISO and wOBA to righties than to lefties.
Against 29 righties this season, the Tigers righty has allowed 39.1% of line drives and has only induced 34.8% of ground balls. That's good news for righties like Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia. Since last year, Semien has hit a .211 ISO and wOBA of .360 against righties. He's also struck out just 13.5% of the time.
Meanwhile, Adolis Garcia has struck out 28.5% of the time. But he's also hit a .263 ISO and wOBA of .360. With Maeda not earning strikeouts at a high rate, there's a higher probability Garcia puts the ball in play. When he does that, typically, good things happen.
Isaac Paredes, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays - NOT IN LINEUP
The Angels will send Griffin Canning to the mound to face the Tampa Bay Rays. Canning has looked awful against righties as a right-handed pitcher. In 21 plate appearances against righties, Canning has given up a .278 ISO and wOBA of .406 with only 9.5% of strikeouts. Beyond that, he's also allowed 50% of fly balls and has induced just 18.8% of ground balls against righties to begin the year.
This is also in line with his stats last year. Canning was way worse against righties than lefties, giving up a .236 ISO and wOBA of .358 to 277 righties the previous year. Meanwhile, he'll face Isaac Paredes, who has smoked a .273 ISO and woBA of .374 against righties since last season. Paredes is a right-handed bat who typically limits ground balls and hits many fly balls against righties.
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
While I discussed Carlos Carrasco's potential against left-handed hitters with strikeouts, I also stated that Carrasco has allowed an ISO of .238 and a wOBA of .397 to his first 28 batters.
Carrasco might earn a strikeout against Triston Casas in this game. But if we get multiple at-bats for Casas against Carrasco, he also might deliver an extra-base hit. After all, Casas has hit a .225 ISO and wOBA of .372 with 11.9% of walks since last season against righties.
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Guardians
You might be able to catch a few people sleeping here. The Red Sox are going to start Brennan Bernardino. But they will also pitch Cooper Criswell for the bulk of this game. Bo Naylor is a left-handed hitter who has struggled against lefties. He's hit a .140 ISO and wOBA of .298 with 26.8% strikeouts, which is not ideal.
However, against righties, Naylor is Cleveland's best hitter. Since last season, he's smashed a .236 ISO and wOBA of .353 with 14.2% of walks against righties.That said, Criswell allowed a .275 ISO and wOBA of .449 to 60 lefties last season. He also gave up nearly 29% of line drives to lefties last year. Naylor's matchup against Criswell is worth taking a stab at the Cleveland catcher.
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