Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Week 7
Week 6 is in the books and with it, we enter what is likely the half-way point for most leagues’ regular season. As we make the turn towards the second half, I have below, the Buy Low-Sell High targets for Week 7.
Buy Low
Vernon Davis, TE SF -- I am really going out on limb on this one, but given how shallow the tight end position and how unbelievably useless Davis has been this season you might be able to get him from a frustrated owner for almost nothing. This is really a low-risk/high-reward acquisition and I wouldn’t even suggest starting Davis right away if you can avoid it. But having a player with his upside and potential could be really useful in the second half of the fantasy season. The 49ers have an improved passing attack this season thanks in part to the acquisitions of Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd. They have taken away some of Davis’s targets, but he has also had an issue with drops this season which has limited some of his production. Davis has a bye coming in Week 8 but will then face some defenses that have been susceptible to opposing tight ends putting up some solid fantasy production. If you are in a position to take a risk and your tight end position is nothing more than average I would see what it would take to acquire him.
Calvin Johnson, WR DET -- Megatron has shown that even he is not immune to injury as a sprained ankle has limited him to just three catches between Weeks 4 and 5 which ultimately led to him being shut down. The Lions staff has stated that Johnson is in a perpetual day-to-day state, but head coach Jim Caldwell has also stated that the Lions may decide to keep Johnson out of the lineup until after the their Week 9 bye. Given that Johnson could now be out for the next three weeks some desperate owners may be looking for a way to get better now and would be willing to move on from Johnson for a fraction of the cost a healthy Calvin would have required. There is definitely a risk in trying to acquire Johnson as high-ankle sprains have a tendency to linger, but if you find yourself in a position of strength and can afford to take a risk, now is the time to try and set yourself up for the second half of the fantasy season.
Sell High
Shane Vereen, RB NE -- The season ending injury to Stevan Ridley has propelled Vereen into the role as the Patriots starting running back. Vereen boasts an impressive 5.1 yards per carry which has many wondering if he will be able to keep it up now that he is the team’s main back. In my opinion that answer is no, but not because I think he will struggle, but because I don’t think he will be given the chance to be an every down back. Vereen has never been afforded the opportunity to carry the every down role for the Patriots who typically like a between the tackles type i.e. the team’s combination of Ridleyand LeGarrette Blount last season, Ridley and Brandon Bolden the year before and BenJarvus Green-Ellis the year before that. With Bolden still on the roster (who I would stash if available in your league), as well as James White and Jonas Gray (signed to the practice squad), all of whom are bigger between-the-tackle style backs, I feel that they will be given more of an opportunity to fill the void left by Ridley while Vereen, who will likely see the number of rushing attempts he has been getting go up, will mostly continue his role as the teams change-of-pace/receiving back. The stigma that he is now the Patriots starting running back will give him added value going into this week and you may be able to get more for him now than you would have previously.
Matt Ryan, QB ATL -- Matty Ice is currently the sixth highest scoring QB in fantasy football which likely means there are at least 4-to-6 other owners in your league, depending on its size, who could use an upgrade at the QB position. Now Ryan owners are likely wondering why I would suggest selling a top tier QB half way through the season and for me the answer is that I see a decline coming. Ryan has turned in two average performances over the past few weeks and finds himself up against some formidable pass defenses throughout the rest of the season starting with the Ravens this week who have the 10th ranked defense against fantasy QB’s. They are followed by the Lions with their top-ranked pass defense in Week 8 before the Falcons go on a bye. The inconsistencies of Roddy White and injury to Harry Douglas have not helped Ryan’s performances by any means. It wouldn’t be smart to trade Ryan if you do not have a backup plan but I feel there are some viable options to be acquired via free agency, whether it’s a Carson Palmer or Joe Flacco-type, both who are owned in less than 50% of leagues and are capable of scoring in the same range as Ryan on any given Sunday. Fantasy owners are typically very name conscious and you might be able to sell Ryan to an owner for a solid return and replace his production fairly cheaply.