MLB Best Bets Today, 5/18: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on.
Sunday’s baseball slate is loaded up with 15 games on the schedule and every team in action. We have plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider.
Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/18
Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an in-state rivalry matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals. We’ll also dive into the series finale featuring the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Sunday’s baseball action.
Cardinals vs. Royals Predictions: Sunday, May 18th
The St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals wrap up their weekend rivalry series on Sunday afternoon. The visiting Cardinals took the first two games and will try to finish off the sweep today. Let’s break down how to bet on this matchup.
St. Louis starter Matthew Liberatore has a solid 3.11 ERA this season, and his 2.31 FIP is even better. The left-hander boasts an elite 3.8% walk rate (95th MLB percentile) with an impressive 33.3% chase rate (87th) and 1.01 WHIP. He’s been especially lights out over the past month with a 2.12 ERA and 2.28 FIP across his last six starts.
Liberatore can be trusted on the road today in a favorable spot. The Royals have struggled against left-handed pitching this season with a .264 wOBA (28th in MLB) and 71 wRC+ (27th). They also have just a 6.7% walk rate (27th) and .075 ISO (30th) in the split. The KC offense has been slumping lately overall, averaging only 2.4 runs over the past eight games.
Royals starter Michael Wacha has an impressive 2.96 ERA this season, but he’s likely due for negative regression. The veteran’s 3.61 xERA and 4.30 xFIP are both notably higher. Plus, his 17.4% strikeout rate (21st percentile) is at a career low.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are a top-tier offense vs. right-handers this year with a .336 wOBA (4th in MLB), 114 wRC+ (6th), .271 batting average (2nd), and 18.7% K rate (3rd). The lineup is crushing righties over the past two weeks with a .381 wOBA (1st in MLB), 145 wRC+ (2nd), and .316 BA (1st). It’s a tough matchup for Wacha.
Let’s back the Cards to finish off the sweep and lead after five innings. They have the slight starting pitching edge and better offensive splits for today’s game. St. Louis is rolling with a 12-1 record over the past 13 games. KC, meanwhile, has lost four straight and is 1-6 over the last seven.
- Expert Cardinals vs. Royals Picks:
- Cardinals Moneyline (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Cardinals 1st 5 Innings ML (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Predictions: Sunday, May 18th
The Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays wrap up their three-game weekend series today. Let’s bank on both offenses setting the tone early and often for our MLB picks in this matchup.
Tigers starter Jackson Jobe has been up and down this season with a 4.32 ERA and 1.47 WHIP across seven starts. Today might be one of those “down” outings, though. Jobe has a 6.11 ERA on the road compared to a 2.30 ERA at home this year. The right-hander’s 5.71 FIP is worrisome, especially with a 13.5% walk rate (7th MLB percentile), 18.2% K rate (25th), and 43.0% hard-hit rate (35th).
Jobe will face a hot Blue Jays offense that’s averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last eight contests. Toronto is also crushing right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .373 wOBA (1st in MLB), 144 wRC+ (1st), .300 batting average (2nd), and .197 ISO (5th). It’s a tough spot for Jobe, considering his road issues already.
Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios, meanwhile, could run into trouble as well. Berrios has a rough 5.65 ERA at home this year compared to a 2.70 ERA on the road. His 4.97 FIP and 4.87 xERA are both higher than his current 4.33 ERA on the season. Plus, a 10.8% walk rate (24th percentile) and 11.5% barrel rate (17th) are concerning in tougher matchups.
The Tigers have been tough all year against right-handed pitching. They have a .335 wOBA (5th in MLB), 118 wRC+ (5th), and .259 BA (5th) vs. righties this season. Over the past two weeks, Detroit has been even better in the split with a .368 wOBA, 141 wRC+, .208 ISO, and .288 BA.
So, we have two offenses that are hammering right-handers recently. Those two righties also have some poor splits and shaky advanced metrics coming into this game.
Grab the over for both the full game and first five innings. Notably, the over has cashed in 14 of the last 18 games for Detroit. Meanwhile, Toronto is 11-2 to the over in the past two weeks. These teams should be in a higher-scoring game today after playing to a 2-1 final score yesterday.
- Expert Tigers vs. Blue Jays Picks:
- Over 8.5 Total Runs (-108 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/18
- Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers – Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Michael King, San Diego Padres – Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox – Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Max Fried, New York Yankees – Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player News
Rays recalled RHP Mason Englert from Triple-A Durham.
Englert had a 6.00 ERA in 18 innings out of the Rays pen before being sent down a month ago. He’ll work in middle relief for now.
Rays optioned LHP Ian Seymour to Triple-A Durham.
Seymour, called up Sunday, picked up a win in his major league debut last night, but since it took him 29 pitches to do so, right back down he goes in exchange for a fresh arm.
Twins recalled RHP Simeon Woods Richardson from Triple-A St. Paul.
This move was expected after both Pablo Lopez (lat) and Zebby Matthews (shoulder) landed on the IL. Woods Richardson should remain in the Twins rotation for at least a month, if not longer, depending on Matthews’ recovery from a shoulder injury. Before a couple of rough starts preceding his demotion, Woods Richardson was having a fine season, and his advanced metrics suggest that he’s been pitching better than his ERA would indicate. He could emerge as a streaming option in favorable matchups for deeper fantasy formats.
Nationals recalled infielder Andrés Chaparro from Triple-A Rochester.
This move was rumored on Sunday and is now official before Tuesday’s game. Chaparro hasn’t played third base in any of his minor league games this season, so he’s likely to serve as a backup first baseman and DH to Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell which keeps him off fantasy radars.
José Urquidy (elbow) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session last week.
The Tigers signed Urquidy in March and placed him on the 60-day IL. The 30-year-old is making his way back from Tommy John surgery and will “ramp up his workload in the coming days,” according to manager A.J. Hinch. He could be an option in Detroit in the final months of the season, but we would keep our expectations in check for fantasy purposes.
Richie Palacios (knee) will start a rehab assignment today in the Florida Complex League on Tuesday.
Palacios has played just one game this year with a broken finger and a right knee sprain. He will likely need a long time on his rehab assignment and could return to a bench role in Tampa Bay by late June or early July.