Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Tuesday’s baseball slate features 15 games on the schedule with every team in action. We have many interesting matchups on tap and plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/6

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an interleague matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays. This showdown features an exciting starting pitching matchup as Zack Wheeler and Drew Rasmussen go head-to-head. Which side should we back for our MLB picks?

We’ll also dive into an intriguing battle between Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves against the Cincinnati Reds. Check out the MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Tuesday’s baseball action. 

Phillies vs. Rays Predictions: Tuesday, May 6th

Today’s MLB picks start with an interleague matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays. We have Zack Wheeler on the mound for Philly while Drew Rasmussen starts for Tampa. This starting pitching matchup, along with key offensive splits, favors the road squad. 

Wheeler had a couple of shaky outings in April, but he’s settled down lately. The Phillies’ ace has a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts with a 29:3 K:BB ratio in this stretch. Wheeler’s current 3.48 ERA doesn’t look dominant on paper, but he’s quietly allowed two runs or fewer in five of seven starts this year. 

The veteran right-hander also boasts a 2.48 xERA and 2.66 xFIP compared to that 3.48 ERA. He still profiles as one of the game’s best pitchers too. Wheeler’s 32.8% K rate is a career-high and in the 93rd MLB percentile. He has a .199 xBA (89th percentile), 5.2% walk rate (84th), and 30.9% chase rate (83rd) as well. 

Even on the road, Wheeler can handle the Rays tonight. This offense has some weaker numbers against right-handed pitching recently. Over the past week vs. righties, Tampa has a .293 wOBA (24th in MLB), 92 wRC+ (21st), 5.9% walk rate (26th), and 24.3% K rate (27th). It’s also just a league-average offense at home, despite playing at a hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field. 

As Wheeler does his thing, the Philly bats should provide enough run support. The Phillies are crushing right-handed pitching over the past week with a .373 wOBA (4th), 139 wRC+ (8th), .864 OPS (3rd), .299 batting average (3rd), and 15.1% K rate (3rd). The offense has also woken up lately, averaging 6.0 runs over the past six games. 

Rays righty Drew Rasmussen is having a good season with a 2.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. However, he’s regressed over his last two outings with seven runs and 11 hits allowed over 10 combined innings. Rasmussen’s 3.21 xERA and 3.20 xFIP are still higher than that ERA and could suggest some shakier starts moving forward, depending on the matchup. 

This Phillies offense in its current form, in a favorable hitting environment, profiles as a tough matchup for Rasmussen. There’s value here, especially with Wheeler on the bump. Grab Philly to lead after five innings and get the win.  

  • Expert Phillies vs. Rays Picks:
    • Phillies Moneyline (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
    • Phillies 1st 5 Innings ML (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
 

 

Reds vs. Braves Predictions: Tuesday, May 6th

As the Atlanta Braves host the Cincinnati Reds tonight, we have an interesting pair of starting pitchers. One is a prime buy-low candidate while the other is an ideal sell-high option. Let’s break it down. 

Braves starter Chris Sale has gotten off to a slow start this season with a 4.84 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through seven starts. Those are career-worst marks for the veteran, who’s bound to see positive regression moving forward. His 3.33 FIP and 3.32 xERA are encouraging and notably lower than that lofty ERA. 

Last year’s Cy Young winner has already gotten back on track lately. Sale has a 2.76 ERA over his last three starts, and he just posted a 10:0 K:BB ratio last time out in Coors Field. The southpaw’s 35.6% chase rate (93rd MLB percentile), 29.3% K rate (85th), 31.5% whiff rate (85th), 5.7% walk rate (80th), and 33.3% hard-hit rate (82nd) are all at elite levels this season as well. 

Let’s bank on Sale showing up at home tonight. He had a 2.28 ERA at home for Atlanta last year and is due for a dominant shutdown performance at Truist Park, where he has a career 2.72 ERA. Sale will face a Reds offense that’s league-average against left-handed pitching this year (.312 wOBA, 91 wRC+). He should get through the matchup.

On the other side, let’s fade Reds starter Andrew Abbott. The lefty has an impressive 2.84 ERA through four starts, but the advanced stats suggest negative regression. Abbott has a 4.60 FIP and 4.50 xFIP, not to mention a shaky 1.26 WHIP. His 15.2% walk rate (4th MLB percentile) and 11.4% barrel rate (21st) are bound to catch up to him. 

Atlanta’s offense, meanwhile, has looked more like its dangerous self over the past two weeks following a slow start to the season. The Braves are trending up offensively and can exploit Abbott at home here. They’ve struggled against lefties so far (.280 wOBA, 74 wRC+), but that’s likely to change. Last year, the Braves were a top-five lineup in the MLB vs. southpaws (.335 wOBA, 114 wRC+). 

Let’s buy low on Sale and the Braves while banking on Abbott to regress. We’ll gladly take the better pitcher and the better group of veteran hitters at home. 

  • Expert Reds vs. Braves Picks:
    • Braves -1.5 Runline (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
    • Braves 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/6