Welcome into tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Monday, May 5th, 2025! It’s a brand-new week once again here betting on some baseball and that means new series are underway! The slate is a bit smaller than normal with 10 games but that gave me more bandwidth to really dive into these matchups. Check out the picks below and if you agree with the rationale go ahead and tail them!

In this MLB Best Bets Today article you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines and to game totals and on occasion some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me make sure to tail and good luck!

Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!

  • Season Record: 58-47-1
  • Bankroll: +4.4 units

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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/5

Pirates vs. Cardinals Predictions

As we are now in the start of May it seems the Pirates are already in free fall after being swept by the Padres over the weekend, they’ll now travel to St. Louis to take on their NL Central rivals the Cardinals. Its hard to see this series starting well for Pittsburgh as Carmen Mlodzinkski is going to start on the mound and he’s been their worst starter to this point. Through 6 starts and 26 innings pitched he’s given up 19 runs, 37 and has walked 10 batters putting his WHIP at a 1.81! We will definitely be attacking him in the bets today so let’s dig into the Cardinals bets I like. 

The first angle of wagering will be the Cardinals offense overall as they are one of the best offenses in MLB right now at home. At 4.89 runs per game they rank 8th in the league, and they are coming off a series where they put up 14 runs against Mets pitching that is much better than they’ll see tonight. Their team prop is 4.5 at plus money so that’s a wager I am locking in for the trends and the value. 

The next wager is backing a bat and the Cardinals have many good options, but Brendan Donovan tops the list hitting .326 with a .919 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. In addition, he’s hitting .324 at home this season and he’s gone 12 straight home games with a hit! I expect him to hit somewhere in the top of the order for St. Louis tonight so give me Donovan to go over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs tonight as he should get 5 at bats against a bad Pittsburgh pitching staff.  

  • Pick: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+105 on DraftKings)
  • Pick: Brendan Donovan (STL) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
 

 

Giants vs. Cubs Predictions

It’s a matchup tonight against a pair of teams that have started out the season well and will look to continue doing so starting a new week! I fear the Giants may fall short of expectations today though looking over their starter Landen Roupp who started the season well but has fallen off a bit in his last 2 starts. 

Roupp leans heavily on the strikeouts as a pitcher and it’s a good plan normally for him as he has 35 punchouts on 30 innings pitched this season but against more disciplined teams like the Padres and Brewers he really got beat up allowing a combined 13 hits, 9 runs and 6 walks in 8 innings pitched. I see him encountering a similar issue tonight against a Cubs team that ranks 2nd in runs scored per game at 6. The Cubs also have a team K-rate below league average against righties at 21.5% and have a team BABIP of .297! They also draw plenty of walks as a group with a 9.5% rate the 11th best in MLB.

For those reasons I just don’t see Roupp pitching a gem tonight and I wanted to take under on his strikeouts but 4.5 was just too tight a line there so instead I will roll with Roupp to allow over 4.5 hits in this contest, something he has done in 5 of 6 starts this season. 

On top of that wager I am taking the Cubs on the alt Run Line tonight at -1, the odds are much better than the Money Line and the Cubs are 9-7 at home this season and have Matthew Boyd pitching who is rocking with a 2.7 ERA. 

  • Pick: Landen Roupp (SF) Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115 on DraftKings)
  • Pick: Cubs Alt Line -1 (-120 on DraftKings)
 

 

Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/5

  • Pick: Bryce Miller (SEA) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110 on DraftKings)
  • Pick: Steven Kwan (CLE) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140 on BetMGM)
  • Pick: Mets & Diamondbacks Over 9 Runs (-135 on ESPNBet)