Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Thursday’s slate features 11 games on the baseball schedule with games going on all afternoon and evening. We have many interesting matchups on tap as we dive into top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/1

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an American League matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers. Can Casey Mize lead the visiting Tigers to a victory? 

We’ll also dive into the Athletics vs. Texas Rangers matchup as the AL West foes wrap up their series in an afternoon contest. Check out the MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Thursday’s baseball action. 

Tigers vs. Angels Predictions: Thursday, May 1st

In today’s Tigers vs. Angels game, we have a starting pitching matchup that immediately favors one side. The respective offenses and some key splits also point us in that direction. Let’s break it down.

Detroit starter Casey Mize is having an excellent season with a 2.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through five starts. He’s allowed one or zero runs in four of his five starts as well. Mize’s 2.44 xERA (90th MLB percentile) and .198 xBA (88th) are at elite levels right now. 

Mize isn’t striking out a ton of batters, but he’s been very tough to hit. His low 5.9% walk rate (76th percentile) helps too. The right-hander’s early-season breakout looks to be the result of a revamped and improved pitch arsenal. Mize has an elite splitter with a 37.5% whiff rate and .160 xwOBA against, and he’s throwing it more often than last year. He’s also added a slurve with a 33.3% whiff rate and .184 xwOBA against. 

Today’s matchup is a very favorable one for Mize to keep it going. The Angels have the MLB’s worst offense against right-handed pitching lately. Their .234 wOBA, 45 wRC+, .170 batting average, 32.3% K rate, and 5.2% walk rate vs. righties over the past two weeks all rank dead last. 

On the other side, Detroit should provide enough run support against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi. The left-hander is off to a shaky start with a 4.31 ERA, 4.68 FIP, and 1.60 WHIP through six outings. His 12.9% walk rate (18th percentile) and 22.1% chase rate (12th) are both worrisome metrics. Plus, his 20.0% K rate is the lowest it’s been since his 2019 rookie season.

The Tigers are an upper-tier offense vs. left-handed pitching this season with a .325 wOBA (11th in MLB) and 113 wRC+ (6th). Over the past two weeks, Detroit boasts a .367 wOBA and 144 wRC+ vs. southpaws. The lineup should get to Kikuchi just enough to give Mize a lead and allow the top-tier bullpen to finish things off. Detroit’s relievers boast a 2.79 ERA (4th in majors) this year compared to a 5.04 ERA for LA’s pen (28th). 

Take the Tigers to lead after five innings and win outright as favorites. You can also grab them to cover the runline for plus-money. Detroit has a 60% cover rate against the runline this season (best in MLB) while the Angels are at 37.9% (second-lowest). 

  • Expert Tigers vs. Angels Picks:
    • Tigers Moneyline (-122 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
    • Tigers 1st 5 Innings ML (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
 

 

Athletics vs. Rangers Predictions: Thursday, May 1st

The Rangers and Athletics wrap up their four-game series with a Thursday matinee matchup. We have a pair of intriguing starting pitchers in this divisional game. Instead of backing a side, though, let’s target the total. 

Rangers starter Tyler Mahle is off to a scorching hot start to the season with a 1.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through six starts. As impressive as he’s been, though, today’s matchup presents an opportunity to sell-high on the right-hander. The advanced stats point to some negative regression moving forward as well. 

Mahle’s low .217 BABIP and high 87.1% left-on-base rate suggest he’s been lucky. That’s led to a 3.49 xERA and 3.98 xFIP compared to his current 1.14 ERA. Mahle also has a 10.7% walk rate (33rd percentile) and 25.3% chase rate (31st) that are worrisome. Finally, he’s yet to allow a home run across six starts. That’s uncharacteristic for a guy who’s had issues with the long ball throughout his career. 

Now that we’ve made the case against Mahle, let’s turn to the Athletics. They present a sneaky-tough matchup with a team batting average and OPS among the top 10 in the majors. Plus, the A’s are a top-tier offense on the road this year with a .327 wOBA (6th in MLB), 113 wRC+ (6th), .181 ISO (4th), and .252 batting average (6th). 

Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs tossed six shutout innings with nine strikeouts in his first start of the season. That seems like a very long time ago considering how bad the lefty has been lately. He’s allowed 13 runs, 12 hits, and six walks over his last two starts combined (8.1 innings). His past five outings (22.1 innings) have seen 25 runs and 27 hits allowed in total. 

Springs has an ugly 6.04 ERA this year with a 5.15 FIP and 1.62 WHIP. His 12.1% walk rate (24th MLB percentile) is especially worrisome. The A’s southpaw hasn’t shown he can consistently get hitters out right now and he’s very fadeable from betting standpoint. 

The Rangers offense, admittedly, has underperformed this season. Their numbers against left-handed pitching are just average as well (.295 wOBA, 91 wRC+). Even so, the Texas lineup exploded for 15 runs vs. Athletics pitching two games ago and can keep it going in this matchup. 

Grab the over for both the full game and first five innings in this AL West clash. Let’s bank on a higher-scoring matchup this afternoon. 

  • Expert Athletics vs. Rangers Picks:
    • Over 8.5 Total Runs (-112 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
    • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/1