MLB Best Bets Today, 10/5: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Saturday
The 2024 MLB Postseason rolls on as we dive into the top MLB picks and MLB best bets for Saturday’s games. The NLDS and ALDS matchups get underway today with four games on the schedule. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!
Our top MLB predictions today feature Royals vs. Yankees picks in their ALDS Game 1 showdown. Plus, we finish up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props today. Enjoy the weekend baseball as we cash our plays!
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 10/5
As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing.
Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, October 5th.
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Prediction: Saturday, October 5th
The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees start up their ALDS matchup with Game 1 on Saturday night. The Royals are coming off their two-game sweep of the Orioles in the Wild Card round while the Yankees begin their postseason after a week off.
Gerrit Cole starts for New York and he brings in an excellent playoff pedigree. The Yankees’ ace has a 2.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 17 career postseason appearances. This valuable experience cannot go overlooked for a dominant pitcher like Cole, who’s been very consistent recently. The right-hander had a 2.25 ERA and 2.62 FIP over his last 10 regular season starts. He also allowed 2 runs or fewer in 12 of 17 outings this year.
Cole will face a Kansas City offense that’s struggled against right-handed pitching since the beginning of September (.278 wOBA, 75 wRC+, .219 BA). The Royals scored only 3 combined runs in two games against Baltimore last round and they’re averaging just 2.1 runs per game over the past 15 contests. Outside of Bobby Witt, the KC lineup isn’t a scary matchup.
Meanwhile, Michael Wacha and the Kansas City pitching staff can limit New York’s offense as well. Wacha boasts a 2.79 ERA since the All-Star break and a 2.96 ERA over his past 8 starts. Plus, the Royals’ bullpen has been lights-out lately with a 2.77 ERA and 2.73 FIP since the beginning of September. If Wacha and the pen can survive the Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at-bats, the Yankees’ lineup is very beatable.
Grab the under for the full game and first five innings. The Royals play in a ton of low-scoring games with their underwhelming offense and strong relief corps. The under has cashed in 19 of the past 24 games for Kansas City, including 11 of the past 13.
Expert Royals vs. Yankees MLB Picks
- Under 8 Total Runs (-118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/5
- Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125 BetMGM)
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+130 BetMGM)
- Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.