Welcome back to another Sunday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres taking on the Tampa Bay Rays. We also have a pick for the AL West matchup between the Angels and Mariners. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 9/1

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, September 1st.

 

 


 

Padres vs. Rays Prediction: Sunday, September 1st

The San Diego Padres have been a pretty profitable team to back over the past month or two. Heading into this weekend’s series against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Padres won 26 of their previous 36 games with many of those coming by multiple runs. Let’s back them to keep it going in this Sunday afternoon series finale with Tampa. 

Dylan Cease starts for San Diego and he gets a very favorable matchup. Against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, the Rays have a .274 wOBA (27th in MLB), 80 wRC+ (27th), .210 BA (28th), and 28.8% K rate (29th). This is one of the easiest lineups to face right now. Though Cease has been shaky lately with a 4.64 ERA over his past 4 starts, he can still take advantage of this matchup. 

At least Cease has multiple underlying metrics and stats that are encouraging. The Padres righty has a 3.16 FIP and 3.32 xERA, both lower than his current 3.57 ERA – suggesting some positive regression. Plus, his 30.6% K rate (92nd MLB percentile), 32.5% whiff rate (93rd), .211 xBA (86th) are elite. He should have no problem with the Rays, even on the road. 

Meanwhile, bank on some run support from the San Diego offense. The Padres are crushing righties over the past two weeks with a .340 wOBA and 122 wRC+. They also have a league-low 16.5% K rate in the split over this stretch. This is a tough spot for Rays starter Ryan Pepiot, who’s admittedly been very good lately (1.91 ERA over past 6 starts). 

Despite Pepiot’s strong track record recently, we’re backing the San Diego offense to give Cease a lead early on. Take the Padres to lead after five innings and grab them on the moneyline for the full game as well.  

Expert Padres vs. Rays MLB Picks

  • Padres Moneyline (-126 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Padres ML (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Mariners vs. Angels Prediction: Sunday, September 1st

As we enter the final month of the MLB regular season, get ready for those late-season September call-ups across the league. Many younger top prospects around the league will make their MLB debuts in the coming weeks. It’s even more the case for teams already looking ahead to next season. We get one on Sunday afternoon with Caden Dana on the mound for the Los Angeles Angels. 

Dana debuts for Los Angeles today despite not throwing a single pitch in Triple-A. The Angels’ top prospect and No. 74 overall (per MLB Pipeline) had an impressive season at Double-A, posting a 2.52 ERA in 23 starts with 147 strikeouts across 135.2 innings (27.4% K rate). The 6-foot-4 right-hander boasts a mid-90s fastball with a slider, changeup, and curveball as his offspeed secondary pitches. 

It’s always tough trusting a rookie pitcher making his major-league debut – especially when he hasn’t been battle-tested in Triple-A yet. Still, Dana has the raw strikeout stuff that can translate and he’ll benefit from the opposing Seattle lineup being unfamiliar with him. Speaking of the Mariners, their 28.0% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching this season is the league’s highest. Plus, the M’s have subpar numbers against righties over the past two weeks (.295 wOBA, .220 BA). 

We’re not just backing Dana, though. The other side of this matchup should see minimal runs scored as well. Seattle starter Bryce Miller has a solid 3.23 ERA this year but he’s been pretty lights-out lately. The righty has a 2.03 ERA and a 52:5 K:BB ratio over his past 9 starts. He’s allowed only 3 earned runs over his past 4 starts combined too. 

Miller gets a very favorable matchup with Los Angeles being the MLB’s worst offense vs. right-handers over the past two weeks (.252 wOBA, 58 wRC+, .184 BA, 31.3% K rate). Meanwhile, Miller has faced the Angels twice already this season and he held them scoreless in both outings. 

Grab the under for the full game and first five innings as Miller and Dana both anchor a low-scoring game. 

Expert Mariners vs. Angels MLB Picks

  • Under 9 Total Runs (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-105 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/1

  • Aaron Nola Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-110 BetMGM)
  • Mitch Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Bailey Ober To Record Win (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)