MLB Best Bets Today, 7/19: Expert Picks, Predictions & Props On Friday
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We are back, and thus, let the second half of the MLB season commence!
If you’re anything like me, you spent the past week twiddling your thumbs with nothing to wager on. While that sucks, it gave me some time to reflect on the stats and find ways into grabbing some winning MLB predictions!
With a slate of 14 games on the docket today, there’s no easing back into things either, so load up that account and dive into the bets I’m watching this evening.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/19
In today’s article, you will find a wide array of choices from some money lines and team totals to plenty of MLB props for players on this action-filled day! The data really liked some specific bets so make sure to double check your betting card before clicking submit for these ones tonight.
Check out the rationale, and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck! Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets and Props today.
- Season Record: 32-21-0
- Bankroll: +5.7 units
*Follow me on X/Twitter @jwaggs10.
Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction: Friday, July 19
If you’ve been reading my content long enough, then you know that I am aware of my team in a rational manner. Seeing that Martin Perez is starting against this Phillies offense today should tell you all that you need to know when betting this game.
Perez has struggled this season with a 5.15 ERA, and in the three starts before the break, he allowed 12 earned runs on 16 innings of pitching – not great! Mix that with the Phillies lineup that hits lefties well, especially at the top of the order, and you got some good props ahead. The first of which is Bryce Harper who is hitting .316 with an 1.016 OPS against southpaws this season.
His prop for hits+runs+RBIs is the standard 1.5 tonight so while it's chalky, expect him to have a big game and maybe add this wager to a Same Game Parlay with the Phillies money line! Extending the love for the Phillies offense, I will also be taking their run total over 4.5 as they’ll beat up Perez with this lineup.
The last of our MLB predictions today for this matchup lies with Aaron Nola. He has been all over the place when it comes to allowing runs but has been punching out batters big time over the past three starts with 26 over 18.2 innings pitched! Seeing as the Pirates have the sixth highest K rate in MLB at 24.4%, I think it’s a reasonable stance to have Nola going over 6.5 strikeouts tonight at plus money!
- Expert Phillies vs. Pirates Picks:
- Philadelphia Money Line (-160 on DraftKings)
- Philadelphia Over 4.5 Team Total Runs (-115 on DraftKings)
- Bryce Harper (PHI) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-165 on DraftKings)
- Aaron Nola (PHI) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115 on DraftKings)
Reds vs. Nationals Prediction: Friday, July 19
If you’ve been watching and betting on baseball this season, then you know it's time to mobilize against Patrick Corbin once again! Corbin has been one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB this season with a 5.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP and this Reds offense, while inconsistent, can make teams pay, so let’s get some wagers in!
Off the top, it’s the Reds money line at a good value given how bad the Nationals have been in July losing 10 of the last 15 games. Frankie Montas will be on the hill for the Reds and while he’s not a fantastic starter he has found his lane in the rotation over the past 7 starts. Then, our MLB picks are going to attack Corbin on the props market like the gas can he is and go with under 15.5 outs recorded tonight for him as he’s failed to go more than 5 innings in his last two starts.
Over on the offensive side for the Reds, I really like Jonathan India tonight as he’s hit lefties well all season long with a .306 average and .412 OBP. He will bat leadoff tonight and if he can get on base a couple times tonight then the Reds lineup behind him should give him plenty of chances to score. I’m going with the over 2.5 hits+runs+RBIs on India tonight as the prop of the game.
- Expert Reds vs. Nationals Picks:
- Cincinnati Money Line (-125 on DraftKings)
- Patrick Corbin (WSH) Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-140 on DraftKings)
- Jonathan India (CIN) Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+110 on DraftKings)
White Sox vs. Royals Prediction: Friday, July 19
Final big-time stack for betting tonight comes as a complete mismatch as the White Sox head to Kansas City! The White Sox are 10-37 on the road this season and ATS are 20-27 for the second worst cover rate in MLB. So, lock up the Royals on the run line for tonight right away.
The next wager is a prop fading Chris Flexen tonight as he’s had issues with strikeouts all season and has just 29 over his last 43 innings pitched. The line is low at 3.5 Ks for Flexen, but given his overall struggles and the fact that the Royals have the third lowest strikeout rate in MLB this season, it's hard to see him getting over the hump on that under. I’ll take it all day, every day.
Lastly, I’m backing the Royals some more here as I am loving some Bobby Witt for tonight’s MLB best bets. He’s hitting .321 against right-handed pitching this season and Flexen is known to allow hitters to put the ball in play quite a bit! The prop is at 2.5 for hits+runs+RBIs, but that shouldn’t worry you as Witt Jr. has gone over this number in eight of 12 games so far in July!
- Expert Phillies vs. Pirates Picks:
- Kansas City Run Line -1.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
- Chris Flexen (CHW) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160 on DraftKings)
- Bobby Witt (KC) Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & More Today, 7/19
- Hunter Brown (HOU) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Gavin Stone (LAD) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Detroit Tigers Money Line (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- New York Mets Money Line (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)