Wednesday brings us an all-day MLB slate with games throughout the afternoon and evening. Let’s dive into MLB best bets and props as you enjoy the Hump Day baseball! 

 

 

 

Our top MLB predictions today feature the marquee American League showdown between the Guardians and Orioles and the Yankees vs. Mets Subway Series matchup tonight. Plus, we wrap up our Wednesday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. 

Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/26

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Wednesday, June 26th!

 

 

 

Guardians vs. Orioles Prediction Today, June 26th

One of the more entertaining games tonight sets up to be the series finale between two of the American League’s best teams. The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians just played to a 10-8 final last night and this Wednesday showdown could end up being higher scoring as well. 

Carlos Carrasco starts for Cleveland with a 5.40 ERA so far this season. He’s been very shaky with 5+ runs allowed in five of his last nine outings. Since returning from the IL at the start of June, the veteran righthander has a 5.95 ERA over the past four starts. He’s also struggled on the road with a 5.95 ERA across 8 road appearances. 

This could be another rough start for Carrasco against the potent Baltimore offense. The Orioles are the MLB’s best vs. right-handed pitching over the past week with a .390 wOBA, 159 wRC+, .243 ISO and .915 OPS. They’re also a top-5 lineup against righties for the season overall. The O’s at home tonight should get to Carrasco.

On the other side, Baltimore starter Grayson Rodriguez could run into trouble as well. The righty has a so-so 3.82 ERA this season and just got shelled for 7 runs on 9 hits against the Astros. Rodriguez will face a Cleveland offense that’s also hitting right-handers well over the past week (.358 wOBA, 136 wRC+, .236 ISO, .824 OPS). The Guardians are hot right now and Rodriguez has a 4.75 ERA over his past five starts. 

Plus, we have to factor in how these teams combined for 18 runs and 30 hits just yesterday while both used up a ton of relievers. Take the over for the full game and the first five innings as our MLB predictions will root for scoring of any kind in this one.

 

 

 

Yankees vs. Mets Prediction Today, June 26th

If you’re a New York baseball fan, you’re fully aware that it’s Subway Series week. The New York Yankees vs. New York Mets is one of the headliner matchups on tonight’s schedule, so let’s dive in to find a betting angle for our MLB picks today. Luis Gil starts for the Yankees with his 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. As impressive as the young righthander’s season has been, Gil is still a fade candidate in the right matchups. 

His predictive metrics aren’t terrible, but they’re all higher (3.31 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.03 xERA). His .222 BABIP and 78.4% strand rate could see some negative regression, too. What’s most concerning about Gil, though, is his high 12.4% walk rate that’s in the 11th MLB percentile. The control issues are more worrisome when you combine them with his low 26.2% chase rate (29th percentile). 

So, a patient and efficient offense could spell trouble for Gil. Well, the Mets have been tough on righthanded pitching over the past two weeks with a .375 wOBA (1st in MLB), 149 wRC+ (1st), .289 BA (3rd) and .206 ISO (3rd). In this stretch, they also have a low 19.9% strikeout rate and a high 9.4% walk rate vs. righties. We just saw the Orioles rough Gil up for 7 runs over 1.1 innings last time out and we could see those struggles carry over into this outing. 

As we’re fading Gil, let’s back Mets starter Sean Manaea to limit the Yankees lineup. It’s a daunting task, though some trends back up the thinking. The left-hander has a so-so 4.16 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season, but he’s actually been more effective than you’d think. Manaea has allowed 5+ runs in three different starts this season but if you factor those out, he has a 2.47 ERA across his 11 other outings. 

Meanwhile, we have a Yankees offense on the wrong end of its splits. They are the best in the league vs. righties but just average against left-handed pitching (.310 wOBA, 103 wRC+, .235 BA). Over the past week vs. southpaws, the Yanks have been slightly worse with a .270 wOBA, 76 wRC+ and .177 BA. There’s value in the Mets tonight as underdogs. Let’s take the home New Yorkers on the money line for the full game and to cover the run line for the first five innings. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 6/26: Pitchers