Sunday brings us another full slate of games spanning all afternoon and into the evening. Check out these MLB best bets and baseball picks as you enjoy the games to wrap up the weekend. Our MLB picks today feature Jordan Hicks and the San Francisco Giants taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks as well as the Marlins vs Cubs matchup. Plus, check out a few MLB player props to lock in for Sunday’s games.

 

MLB Best Bets For Today: Sunday, April 21

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out the MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Sunday, April 21st. 

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction Today, 4/21

The Miami Marlins have been the worst MLB team to bet on this season with an ugly 4-17 record straight-up and 6-14 against the runline. However, Sunday gives us the rare opportunity to back the Marlins with the starting pitching advantage and splits in their favor. 

Miami right-hander Edward Cabrera was excellent in his season debut last Monday, tossing six innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts. That’s a great sign for a guy who had a 0.71 ERA in three rehab starts and showed flashes in the second half of the 2023 season. Cabrera had a 2.38 ERA across five outings in September of last year and made some improvements after previously getting demoted to Triple-A.

It looks like Cabrera is carrying some of last year’s late success into this year. Although pitching on the road at Wrigley can be daunting, this can actually be a favorable matchup for Cabrera. The Chicago Cubs have the MLB’s worst offense against right-handed pitching over the past week with a .251 wOBA, 58 wRC+, .569 OPS, and .185 BA in the split. The Cubs have much better numbers against lefties than righties as well. 

On the other side, we’re fading Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks as he’s off to a horrendous start in 2024. The veteran righty has an ugly 12.71 ERA through four outings with at least five runs allowed in each start. Hendricks probably won’t be this bad all season, but he’s also impossible to trust right now. The Marlins are a below-average offense against right-handed pitching, but this is more of a fade of Hendricks than anything else. 

We also have a Cubs team that’s been dominant at home so far with a 7-2 record in Wrigley. Still, they’re due to take some losses at home moving forward and we saw the Marlins take a road win yesterday over Chicago. There’s value in backing Cabrera and the Cubbies to do it again today. 

Expert Marlins vs Cubs Predictions

  • Marlins Moneyline (+110 BetMGM)


Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction Today, 4/21

When the San Francisco Giants signed Jordan Hicks this offseason and moved him into the starting rotation, we had no idea how it would go. Well, it’s been a success so far with Hicks rocking a 1.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through four starts. While he is due for some negative regression down the line, the Giants’ right-hander can still keep this hot start going in the short term.

Hicks is in the MLB’s 96th percentile in pitching run value, per Statcast, with an arsenal that’s confounding hitters right now. He has some excellent stuff with a 95-97 mph heater combined with a sweeper (.071 batting average against) and sinker (.091) that have been elite swing-and-miss pitches. It’ll likely take a few more starts until teams have a better scouting report on Hicks, so it’s not time to sell high yet.

In this matchup, Hicks can keep it going at home in a pitcher-friendly park. The Arizona Diamondbacks have struggled against right-handed pitching lately with a .266 wOBA, 65 wRC+, .176 batting average, and .577 OPS in the split over the past week. The Dbacks have been pounding lefties but are now on the worse end of their splits. It’s even more notable that Arizona has faced two southpaws in the first two games of this series vs San Fran, so Hicks’ stuff could be even more effective situationally. 

While Hicks does his thing, let’s bank on the Giants offense providing enough run support. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly is another negative regression candidate with a 2.19 ERA through four starts. Yet, his 90.4% left-on-base rate and .226 BABIP suggest he’s been lucky – as evidenced by his 3.81 FIP. Meanwhile, the Giants are crushing righties over the past week with a .356 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and .806 OPS in the split. 

Expert Diamondbacks vs Giants Predictions

  • Giants Moneyline (-112 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Giants 1st 5 Innings ML (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Best MLB Player Props Today, 4/21