Time to check in with our expert MLB best bets and prop bets for today, Monday, April 1.

While yesterday's MLB betting column could be construed as a cruel set-up to the worst April Fool’s joke around, it actually serves as a reminder of the peaks and valleys you will find while betting MLB every day. Even volume bettors ran into a bit of a buzzsaw over the weekend as players get their footing and work themselves into their normal routine for a 162-game season. 

 

 

 

It happens. You cannot let it shake you and the worst thing you can do is haphazardly change your process. You’re going to have losing days. You want them to finish break-even at worst, but let’s remember the fact that you are looking at a game where a 30-percent success rate is considered Hall of Fame. 

So, when Mookie Betts throws down an 0-for-4 day or you get clipped on a team total by a half-run, you roll with the punches and move on. Exactly what we are doing here as we look at Monday’s slate of games and place our best bets and props.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 0-6
  • Season Record: 11-13
  • Bankroll: -2.91 units

MLB Best Bets & Prop Bets for Today: Monday, April 1 

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks Prediction Today, 4/1

This is an interesting matchup from an overall game perspective as Yankees starter Luis Gil is making his first big-league start since May 2022 when he had Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season and all of 2023. 

He looked great at times this spring, posting a 13.21 K/9 over 15.2 innings and kept the walk rate down. The velocity is back, but there are times where it looked like he was still harnessing that command and control. The Diamondbacks have looked great this season, already posting a .416 wOBA and a .207 ISO against righties. 

On the other side, the Yankees are coming off a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros and face righthander Ryne Nelson. This is where I am zeroing in right now as Nelson doesn’t generate a lot of swings-and-misses, pitching to a whole lot of contact. 

On top of that, his ground ball rate is sitting well-below 40-percent, a dangerous number playing in Chase Field and facing the Yankees. Juan Soto is the only active Yankee with experience against him and that experience has led to two home runs in 11 at-bats and a .500 wOBA against him. 

The game total is a little high as Gil is a bit unpredictable at this point, but there are definitely a few props worth betting.

 

 

 

Braves vs. White Sox Prediction Today, 4/1

We’ve got an early start for this match-up and all signs point to the Braves. The White Sox are throwing righthander Chris Flexen who, like Nelson, pitches to far too much contact and struggles to induce ground balls. 

That’s a problem when playing on the south side of Chicago, especially when you’re facing one of the best teams in MLB. I expect some strong action from some of the usual suspects. Veteran righty Charlie Morton takes the mound for the Braves and is facing a pretty soft lineup, especially after seeing Eloy Jimenez removed from Sunday’s game. 

It seems unlikely that he will be in the lineup today which means Luis Robert is a man alone on an island and overall, this lineup isposting a .258 wOBA over the first few games of the season. This isn’t even their home opener, so if you were looking for some magic, it’s probably not happening.

 

 

 

Giants vs. Dodgers Prediction Today, 4/1

This is always a heated series and despite the Dodgers coming out like an absolute juggernaut this season, I’m probably going to stay away from the game bets. So why am I here? Plain and simple – it’s Mookie Betts. After hitting safely in five-straight games with one double and four home runs, Betts served up a big, fat doughnut in Sunday’s game. 

Given the talent level and everything we know about the player, I am, on principle, going right back to the well, especially against a rookie pitcher. Don’t get me wrong, I like Keaton Winn and think he’s got a future, but I’m simply betting Mookie here and finding some nice odds on his total bases.