Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Player Props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature the Blue Jays vs. Yankees, Phillies vs. Mariners, and White Sox vs. Twins matchups. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/3

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds And Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, August 3rd.

 

 


 

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction Today, August 3rd

Saturday afternoon’s early game features an AL East battle between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees. This should be an entertaining one to start off the day, so let’s dive into how to bet this divisional showdown. 

Jose Berrios is on the mound for Toronto and he gets a very tough matchup against the potent New York offense. Berrios has been shaky lately with a 5.72 ERA over his past 9 starts and a 6.08 ERA over his past 5 starts. He may due for some more poor outings, according to a 5.25 xERA and 5.04 FIP compared to his current 3.93 ERA for the year. The right-hander also has plenty of worrisome advanced stats: 18.0% K rate (17th MLB percentile), 19.6% whiff rate (12th) .279 xBA (8th), 44.1% hard-hit rate (12th). 

That could be bad news against a hot Yankees lineup that’s even more dangerous with Jazz Chisholm in the mix. Since the All-Star break, New York is crushing right-handed pitching with a .391 wOBA, 158 wRC+, 926 OPS, and .254 ISO. Meanwhile, in his career, Berrios has a 4.96 ERA against the Yankees and 5.65 ERA in Yankee Stadium. He also has been notably worse on the road (4.99 ERA) than at home (2.99 ERA) this season. 

As the Yanks put up runs, the Blue Jays can also add to the total here. Carlos Rodon has had some better outings lately but still has a 4.34 ERA and 4.63 FIP on the year. He has a 4.05 ERA over his past 5 starts and 7.14 ERA over his past 8 starts. In terms of advanced stats, the left-hander’s 10.4% barrel rate (10th percentile), 42.1% hard-hit rate (23rd), and 90.5 mph average exit velo (11th) are all concerning. 

The Blue Jays, admittedly, aren’t hitting lefties particularly well lately with just a .294 wOBA and 94 wRC+ in the split since the All-Star break. However, we’re still fading Rodon in this spot to help cash the over. Notably, he has a 5.01 career ERA against Toronto. Take the over for the first five innings as well.

Expert Blue Jays vs. Yankees Picks

  • Over 9 Total Runs (-105 BetMGM)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-130 BetMGM)

 

 


 

White Sox vs. Twins Prediction Today, August 3rd

One of the big names in MLB Trade Deadline rumors this past week was Garrett Crochet, especially with his contract request. Well, the Chicago White Sox ended up keeping him and the left-hander now makes his first post-deadline start this weekend. Crochet will take on Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins in what could be a low-scoring affair. 

Crochet has a solid 3.23 ERA this season, while his 2.47 xERA and 2.43 FIP suggest he could be even better moving forward. We’ve seen that lately as the White Sox southpaw boasts a 2.03 ERA since the beginning of May (15 starts). His innings and pitch counts have been limited in recent outings, but that may change now that Chicago doesn’t need to preserve him for other teams. 

The matchup is favorable with the Twins struggling against left-handed pitching lately. Since the All-Star break, they have a .257 wOBA, 65 wRC+, .219 BA, and 25.8% strikeout rate vs. lefties. Crochet, meanwhile, brings in his elite 34.6% strikeout rate (98th MLB percentile), 5.6% walk rate (86th), and .195 xBA (95th). 

On the other side, Ober should hold the White Sox lineup in check as well. The Minnesota right-hander has just a 3.76 ERA on the season, but he’s rocking a 1.86 ERA over his past 7 starts. Ober also has some impressive advanced stats: 26.8% K rate (79th percentile), 33.1% chase rate (88th), 6.0% walk rate (79th), and .222 xBA (77th). 

Ober will face a weak Chicago offense that’s even less potent now that Eloy Jimenez was traded away. Against right-handed pitching since the All-Star break, the Sox have a .240 wOBA, 51 wRC+, .199 BA, and 26.7% K rate. It’s as good of a matchup as it gets and Ober has a better ERA at home (3.18) than on the road (4.13). 

Grab the under for the full game and first five innings for this AL Central matchup. Both Ober and Crochet should set the tone for a pitcher’s duel.

Expert White Sox vs. Twins Picks

  • Under 7.5 Total Runs (-102 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-125 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Phillies vs. Mariners Prediction Today, August 3rd

At one point not too long ago, the Philadelphia Phillies looked like the clear-cut best team in baseball. Well, the NL East leaders have slipped up lately with a 3-11 record over the past 14 games with losses in 7 of the last 8 games. The Seattle Mariners host the Phils tonight and there’s clear value on the home squad. 

Bryce Miller starts for Seattle with a solid 3.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been sharp lately with a 2.10 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 24:2 K:BB ratio over his past 5 starts (30 innings). Miller also has some drastic home/road splits with an elite 1.88 ERA in 11 home outings compared to a 5.37 ERA across 10 road starts.

Last month, it would be foolish to bet against the Philadelphia offense. Right now, though, the lineup is struggling – especially right-handed pitching. Since the All-Star break, the Phillies have a .271 wOBA, 72 wRC+, and .211 batting average vs. righties. They also have subpar numbers against right-handers over the past month (.297 wOBA, 90 wRC+, .228 BA). 

Meanwhile, Miller can get run support as we look to back the Mariners in the first five innings and the full game. The Phillies will go with Orion Kerkering as the opener and Kolby Allard in long relief. Allard previously replaced Ranger Suarez in the rotation and his first outing last weekend was a shaky one. The left-hander allowed 3 runs and 6 hits over 4 innings in a loss to Cleveland.

Allard doesn’t offer much confidence for a guy who had a 5.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in the minors this season before that start. Plus, he’s never been a good MLB pitcher while previously with Atlanta and Texas. 

Allard could run into trouble early against a Seattle offense that’s now bolstered with the trade deadline additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner – who are both better against lefties than righties. The Mariners also have been above-average vs. left-handers over the past month before Arozarena and Turner came to town (.326 wOBA, 116 wRC+, .750 OPS).

Expert Phillies vs. Mariners Picks

  • Mariners Moneyline (-125 BetMGM)
  • 1st 5 Innings Mariners ML (-135 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 8/3