MLB Best Bets For Today, 6/15 - Expert Picks, Predictions, & Props
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Welcome back to another weekend of MLB picks as we dive into Saturday’s slate of games. Our top MLB bets today focus on the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves afternoon matchup and the Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers nightcap. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the weekend baseball as we cash our MLB picks!
MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 6/15
As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Saturday, June 15th!
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction Today, 6/15
The Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves are both underperforming so far compared to pre-season expectations. It makes this weekend’s series a fascinating one with two squads who were World Series contenders just last year. The starting pitching matchup of Ryan Pepiot vs. Charlie Morton doesn’t scream low-scoring right away, but that’s where we’re going.
Pepiot has an uninspiring 4.17 ERA this season, but some underlying numbers suggest some better outings moving forward. The Rays’ right-hander has a 2.99 xERA, one of the lowest marks for pitchers with double-digit starts. His 31.2% whiff rate, 29.6% strikeout rate, and .205 xBA are all in the MLB’s 87th percentile. Pepiot has been effective in easier matchups and, believe it or not, the Braves qualify as that right now.
Atlanta’s offense has been slumping for over a while now, averaging just 3.5 runs per game over the past month. Against right-handed pitching over the past week, specifically, the Braves are a bottom-tier lineup (.251 wOBA, 61 wRC+, .176 BA, .563 OPS). Pepiot should post a good outing, and it helps that he has a 1.50 ERA on the road so far this year.
Meanwhile, Morton should hold the Tampa Bay offense in check too. The Rays have been a bottom-5 lineup vs. right-handed pitching all season and that’s held true over the past week (.248 wOBA, 62 wRC+, .187 BA, .543 OPS). Morton’s 4.12 ERA doesn’t offer much confidence, but he’s also been able to have success against weaker offenses – like when he tossed 6 shutout innings vs. Oakland two starts ago.
Though Pepiot and Morton aren’t the best pitchers to target an under for, we’re fading both offenses in this one. Grab the under for the first five innings and the full game as the Rays and Braves continue to underperform.
- Expert Rays vs. Braves Picks:
- Under 9 Total Runs (-108 FanDuel Spotrsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction Today, 6/15
This Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers series is a fun one this weekend and Saturday night’s game is very intriguing. We have a pair of dangerous offenses and a pitching matchup of Seth Lugo vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, two of the best starters this year. Let’s break down how to bet this one.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is having an excellent rookie season for the Dodgers with a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The Japanese right-hander has actually been a bit better than that when you look at some underlying numbers. He has a 2.64 FIP with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate on the year. If we factor out his blowup start in Korea to begin the season, Yamamoto has a 2.41 ERA over the 12 starts since.
After a couple of shaky outings last month, Yamamoto has settled down lately with 7 shutout innings vs. the Yankees and 6 innings of one-run ball against Colorado in the past two starts. He’s also now recorded a quality start in 7 of his last 9 outings. Full disclosure, the Royals are a top-10 offense vs. righties this season. Still, we’re backing Yamamoto at home to anchor the Dodgers.
On the other side, Royals starter Seth Lugo is rocking a 2.36 ERA so far but he’s also a major negative regression candidate. The right-hander’s predictive metrics (3.84 xERA, 3.46 FIP, 3.93 xFIP) are all much higher than that sub-3.00 ERA. His 84.5% strand rate, 7.7% HR/FB rate, and .259 BABIP all suggest he’s been a tad lucky. Remember, the 34-year-old had a 3.57 ERA last year and a 3.60 ERA two seasons ago.
We’ve seen Lugo struggle lately with 4 runs on 8 hits allowed to the Yankees last time out and 5 runs allowed to the Guardians the start before. The regression monster is catching up to him and will likely continue in this tough road spot. The Dodgers are a top-5 offense against right-handed pitching this season and are crushing the split recently. Over the past week, they boast a .369 wOBA, 144 wRC+, .219 ISO, 13.3% walk rate, and 18.2% K rate vs. righties.
Let’s take Los Angeles on the runline and lead after the first five innings. The Dodgers are 7-1 in Yamamoto’s last 8 starts with 5 of those wins coming by multiple runs. The Royals offense is also considerably weaker on the road compared to home.
- Expert Royals vs. Dodgers Picks
- Dodgers -1.5 Runline (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Dodgers 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best MLB Player Props Today, 6/15
- Trevor Rogers Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-104 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105 BetMGM)
- Patrick Sandoval Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)