MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for September 5
Welcome back to a full slate of games for Tuesday night on the Major League Baseball schedule and another round of MLB best bets and baseball picks. Tonight's slate offers up plenty of matchups to target as we dive into top MLB picks and MLB bets today. The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians face off in an AL Central battle with plenty of playoff implications on the line. Plus, the Detroit Tigers take on Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees. Be sure to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB bets today. Plus, the MLB daily projections will help you find the best matchups for MLB betting picks and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB bets and baseball props today for Tuesday, September 5th.
MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for September 5
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians
Last night, we saw 26 combined runs from these teams as the Minnesota Twins throttled the Cleveland Guardians in a 20-6 final. We should see a much lower-scoring game between the AL Central rivals tonight with a stronger starting pitching matchup. Twins right-hander Sonny Gray continues to pitch well with a 2.04 ERA and 2.53 FIP over his last six starts. He just faced Cleveland in his last outing and tossed seven shutout innings. The Guardians offense has struggled against right-handed pitching lately with a .290 wOBA and 83 wRC+ in the split over the past two weeks. With yesterday’s blowout win, the Twins were able to save their top relievers to be ready to shut things down once Gray exits.
On the other side, we should get Guardians rookie pitcher Tanner Bibee limiting the run-scoring as well. Bibee is having a strong second-half with a 2.63 ERA since the All-Star break spanning nine starts. Overall this season, the righty’s advanced metrics are very encouraging. Per Statcast, Bibee’s Pitching Run Value is in the 92nd percentile and his 6.1% barrel rate is in the 78th percentile of MLB pitchers. While the Twins did just explode for 20 runs, this offense had been struggling against right-handed pitching previously. Minnesota had a .306 wOBA and 27.2% strikeout rate vs righties over the prior week before last night’s outburst. The Guardians also have all of their top relievers rested and available to keep this one lower-scoring behind Bibee.
Let's grab both the full-game under and the first five innings under for this Twins vs Guardians matchup. The starting pitching of Gray vs Bibee should anchor a low total early on and carry through when the relievers take over.
PICK: Twins/Guardians UNDER 8 (-115 DraftKings)
PICK: Twins/Guardians 1st 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-135 DraftKings)
Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees
Whenever Gerrit Cole is on the mound, we usually see the New York Yankees more overvalued in terms of betting odds. That’s what we have tonight with the Yankees as sizable home favorites on the money line over the Detroit Tigers. Of course, the first instinct would be to back Cole – no matter the matchup. However, we’re looking in the other direction with some value on the Tigers to make this a closer game. Cole has actually sputtered at times lately with just a 4.40 ERA and 4.56 FIP over his past five starts. Yes, a home matchup against the Tigers should be a favorable spot for him. This also might be sneaky-tough. Cole just faced Detroit in his last outing (and gave up two runs over six strong innings). That recent familiarity with Cole’s stuff could give the Tigers an advantage here.
Though the Tigers offense has struggled against right-handed pitching all season, their recent splits vs righties are actually better than the Yankees’. Over the past two weeks, Detroit has a .310 wOBA and 95 wRC+ against right-handers while New York has a .296 wOBA and 86 wRC+. Yes, it’s only slightly worse, but it’s a stat point we can’t ignore here. Meanwhile, we have to put our trust in Tigers righty Alex Faedo matching up with Cole. On the surface, Faedo’s 4.89 ERA doesn’t offer much confidence. Yet, Faedo is sporting a decent 3.38 ERA and .188 batting average against since the start of August. It’s obviously risky, but Faedo has been serviceable in the right matchups and, again, the Yankees have weak numbers vs right-handed pitching recently. Plus, Faedo is rocking a 2.87 ERA on the road this season compared to a 5.66 home ERA.
One final interesting stat to consider is the Yankees’ lack of consistent winning even when Cole is on the mound. New York has gone just 4-5 in his nine starts since the All-Star break. Furthermore, the Tigers are actually 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 instances as +1.5 underdogs on the runline. Meanwhile, the Yankees are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as -1.5 favorites on the runline. Overall, there’s value here in taking the Tigers to at least cover and make it more interesting than Vegas sees.
Pick: Detroit Tigers +1.5 Runline (-105 FanDuel)
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Miguel Vargas went 2-for-5 with a homer, three RBI and two runs scored on Tuesday evening, propelling the White Sox to a 5-1 victory over the Reds in 10 innings.
Vargas smacked a leadoff double off of Andrew Abbott in the fourth inning and scored the game’s first run on an RBI knock by Edgar Quero. He then broke it open with a 373-foot (101.7 mph EV) three-run blast off of Emilio Pagan in the 10th inning that increased the White Sox’ lead to 5-1. Vargas has picked up the pace considerably since his brutal start to the season and is now hitting .221/.314/.350 with three homers and 15 RBI on the season.
Chase Meidroth delivered a go-ahead RBI single in the 10th inning on Tuesday night as the White Sox bested the Reds.
The 23-year-old rookie infielder had been hitless in four at-bats entering the 10th inning, but he saved the best for last, smacking a two-out, two-strike offering from Emilio Pagan for an RBI single that gave the White Sox a 2-1 lead they would never relinquish. With his 1-for-5 night, Meidroth is now slashing .242/.333/.273 with zero homers, three RBI and three stolen bases over 75 plate appearances in his first 20 games with the White Sox.
Steven Wilson picked up his second blown save of the season on Tuesday night, serving up a game-tying solo homer to Elly De La Cruz in the ninth inning.
Wilson was called upon to face the heart of the Reds’ lineup with the White Sox clinging to 1-0 advantage on Tuesday. He wound up giving up that game-tying blast to De La Cruz after a six-pitch battle, then rebounded to retire each of the next three hitters in order. Wilson was then the beneficiary of the White Sox scoring four times in the home half of the 10th as he snagged his first victory of the season. Cam Booser, who had received the White Sox’ previous save chance, worked a scoreless 10th inning in this one and may be the arm to speculate on in the White Sox’ bullpen for those desperate in saves.
Jonathan Cannon was brilliant in a no-decision against the Reds on Tuesday, allowing just four hits over six innings of shutout baseball.
The 24-year-old right-hander racked up six strikeouts on the night and didn’t walk a batter. He exited with a 1-0 lead and in line for a hard-earned victory, but the White Sox’ bullpen was unable to hang on for him. Cannon got seven swings and misses on 96 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 25 percent. He’ll see if he can build off of this success as he carries a 3.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and a 39/17 K/BB ratio (50 innings) into Sunday’s battle against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Elly De La Cruz swatted a game-tying home run in the ninth inning on Tuesday, but the Reds would wind up falling to the White Sox in extra innings.
The Reds entered the ninth inning facing a 1-0 deficit until De La Cruz clobbered a leadoff 435-foot (114.9 mph EV) solo shot off of Steven Wilson that tied the game. The superstar shortstop also singled in the contest, finishing the night 2-for-4. On the season, he’s slashing .250/.324/.405 with seven homers, 30 RBI and 14 stolen bases.
Andrew Abbott was terrific in a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday night, piling up seven strikeouts over six innings of one-run baseball.
The 25-year-old southpaw scattered just four hits on the evening and did not walk a batter. The only run that the White Sox were able to muster against him came on an RBI single by Edgar Quero in the fourth inning. Abbott generated 13 swings and misses on 96 pitches on the night — eight of those on his fastball — while posting a CSW of 29 percent. He’ll bring a pristine 2.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 38/12 K/BB ratio (30 innings) into Sunday’s tilt against the Guardians.