MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for September 15th
Friday night's Major League Baseball schedule is filled to the brim with interesting matchups and games for our MLB betting picks today. Let's jump right in as you place MLB bets and baseball picks ahead of this weekend. Our top MLB picks today feature the Texas Rangers taking on the Cleveland Guardians, plus a pair of pitcher props for Miami Marlins starter Johnny Cueto and San Francisco Giants righty Logan Webb. Be sure to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB bets today. Plus, the MLB daily projections will help you find the best matchups for MLB betting picks and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB bets and baseball props today for Friday, September 15th.
MLB Best Bets for September 15
Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians
After slumping throughout August and early September, the Texas Rangers have caught fire lately. They’re on a six-game winning streak and are now just a half-game back of the Houston Astros in the AL West standings. The offense, especially, has looked like the juggernaut it was earlier this year. Texas has scored 9+ runs in four of the last five games while averaging 7.8 runs per game in the current win streak. The Rangers can keep the hot hitting going tonight in a matchup vs Lucas Giolito. The right-hander has really struggled over the past month-plus, whether it’s been for the Los Angeles Angels or Cleveland Guardians. He has an 8.44 ERA and 7.54 FIP since the beginning of August, spanning seven starts. Giolito has allowed 4+ runs on his own in five straight starts and six of his last seven outings. Meanwhile, the Rangers offense is the best in the majors vs right-handed pitching over the past week with a .432 wOBA, 179 wRC+, .243 ISO, and .331 BA. Take the Rangers team total to go over in this spot as the offense keeps it going and Giolito has another rough outing.
Pick: Texas Rangers Team Total Over 3.5 (-145 BetMGM)
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Maybe it’s a trap, but Johnny Cueto’s earned runs prop seems too low tonight. First off, the Miami Marlins right-hander has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts and seven of eight starts overall this season. Cueto has a 6.64 ERA and a 7.22 FIP since the beginning of August and just coughed up five runs to the Phillies last time out. It’s a rough season for the 37-year-old pitcher who looks like he’s on his way out of the league. So that’s Cueto’s track record to consider. Now he has to face the Atlanta Braves? This offense is the league’s best against right-handed pitching in 2023. Over the past week, the Braves have a .381 wOBA, .238 ISO, 139 wRC+, and .294 BA vs righties. It’s very hard to believe that Atlanta won’t tag Cueto for 3+ earned runs tonight.
Pick: Johnny Cueto Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-140 DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
We included the Logan Webb strikeout prop in yesterday’s MLB Best Bets article but the San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies game got postponed. So, let’s run it back with Webb back on the mound in the same matchup tonight. Unfortunately, Webb’s K prop increased to 5.5 from the 4.5 line yesterday. Still, the Giants starter should get to 6+ strikeouts in this spot. The Rockies have a 26.5% strikeout rate and a low 5.8% walk rate against right-handed pitching over the past week. Even though this game is at the hitter-friendly Coors, Webb should hold down a subpar Colorado offense. He has at least six strikeouts in 16 of 30 starts this season and has 5+ K’s in 22 of 30.
Pick: Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125 DraftKings)
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.