MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for May 21
Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Sunday, May 21. The 2023 MLB season has been a wild one to date but let’s look to end the week on a high note and build that bankroll for the upcoming week of games! We have 16 games on today’s slate and more important, there are zero weather issues expected to impact today’s games. When looking at the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB player props there are some juicy matchups to target today so let’s get into the action!
Framber Valdez to get the Win (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We love this matchup for Valdez today as the Astros are -340 to win the game on the moneyline and are even -170 on the run line at -1.5. Why pay those odds when the starting pitcher to get the win is sitting at -115? Sure, Valdez has been a bit snake-bitten in the win department this season, owning just a 3-4 record despite pitching to a 2.84 ERA but with Oakland sending James Kaprielan to the mound and the Astros being such big favorites this feels like a spot where Houston jumps out to a big lead and Framber shuts the door on the A’s.
Cleveland Guardians Under 3.5 Total Runs (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Guardians offense just hasn’t been all that good this season and while I know they put up runs against the Mets on Friday they draw a returning Max Scherzer in today’s matchup. On the season against right-handed pitching the Guardians rank 28th in total runs, 28th in wOBA, 28th in OPS and 25th in batting average. This doesn’t feel like a matchup they are destined to flip the script on us.
Same Game Parlay
Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Houston Astros Race to 1 Run
- Houston Astros Team Total Over 3.5 Runs
- Yordan Alvarez 1+ RBI
- Kyle Tucker 1+RBI
Who doesn’t love a little Sunday Funday same game parlay? Let’s go back and attack this matchup with the Astros taking on the Athleltics shall we? Oakland is sending righty James Kaprielian to the mound and while he may be a nice guy he has also been an absolute disaster on the mound this season, allowing 26 runs on 30 hits over 23 innings pitched. Everyone is hitting Kaprielian this season but lefties have especially knocked him around as they are hitting .327 with a .712 slugging percentage and an OPS of 1.147. So, let’s ride with the Astros scoring first, finishing with more than 3.5 total runs today with lefties Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker doing some damage for nearly 5x return on our money!
Player News
Dillon Dingler went 3-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night, helping to lead the Tigers to a come-from-behind 7-6 victory over the Twins in Minneapolis.
The Tigers were staring at a 4-1 deficit heading into the sixth inning but they made quick work of that with a pair of walks and three consecutive singles to start the frame, with Dingler’s RBI single tying the game at 4-4. He also led off the fifth inning with a single and scored his club’s first run on a throwing error by Matt Wallner. Dingler has been absolutely sizzling at the plate to open the season, slashing .387/.406/.677 with a pair of homers and eight RBI.
Colt Keith went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night as the Tigers triumphed over the Twins.
Keith played a role in the Tigers’ four-run rally in the sixth inning, reaching on an infield single to load the bases with nobody out. He then scored the tying run on Dillon Dingler’s RBI single. The 23-year-old infielder also drove in a valuable insurance run with a two-out RBI single off of Justin Topa in the seventh inning. With the two-hit attack, he’s now hitting .200/.385/.250 with zero home runs, two RBI and no stolen bases.
Tommy Kahnle snagged his second save of the season on Friday night, escaping the ninth inning with a one-run lead intact against the Twins.
Kahnle made things interesting by allowing a one-out single to Trevor Larnach and a two-out infield single to Edouard Julien. He then surrendered an RBI ground ball single to Ty France that trimmed the lead to one run before ralling to get Mickey Gasper on a ground ball to first to end it. Kahnle has allowed just one run through his first five innings on the season while registering a 5/0 K/BB ratio. While many have speculated that the Tigers’ bullpen will be full of chaos in 2025, it has been Kahnle that has emerged in a traditional closer’s role to open the season. He’s worth a look in any fantasy leagues where he may still be hanging around on the waiver wire.
Reese Olson struggled with his command in a no-decision against the Twins on Friday evening, allowing four runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings.
Olson also issued three walks on the night while striking out three. He threw just 48 of his 90 pitches for strikes in the ballgame, which contributed to his early exit. The Twins scratched out a run against him in the second inning on an RBI single off the bat of Ty France, then broke the game open with three more in the fifth while chasing him. Olson got 10 swings and misses on 90 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 23 percent. He’ll look to bounce back as he brings a 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and a 13/8 K/BB ratio (15 innings) into Wednesday’s battle against the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Byron Buxton had a terrific night at the plate in Friday’s loss to the Tigers, going 1-for-4 with a solo homer, walk, three runs scored, two RBI and a stolen base.
Buxton worked Reese Olson for a leadoff walk to start the second inning then stole second base and raced around to score the game’s first run on an RBI single by Ty France. He then plated a run with a fielder’s choice in the fifth inning and scored on Edouard Julien’s RBI double. Buxton also clobbered a 394-foot (108.1 mph EV) solo shot off of Beau Brieske in the seventh that pulled the Twins to within a run at 6-5. Even with the strong night though, he’s hitting just .178/.229/.356 with two homers, six RBI and three stolen bases on the season.
David Festa pitched well in a no-decision against the Tigers in his season debut on Friday night, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over 4 2/3 innings.
Festa struck out four batters on the evening while allowing only one free pass. The only run that the Tigers scratched out against him came on a two-out single by Gleyber Torres on which Matt Wallner overthrew the third baseman allowing Dillon Dingler to score. The 25-year-old right-hander got nine whiffs on 64 pitches in the ballgame, registering a CSW of 28 percent. He’ll look to build off of this strong first start when he takes on the Braves in Atlanta on Friday.